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2012 Draft Coverage; Current Pref List


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#1 Stotle

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 11:10 AM

I'll be covering the draft from the Orioles perspective for ESPN's Sweetspot Network Orioles Blog, Camden Depot. First piece is up (http://camdendepot.b...finding-14.html), giving my current preference list, roadmapping the spring coverage and providing some Appel video. I narrowed my personal 1:4 candidates to fifteen players and, barring something unforseen, think Baltimore should be selecting from these kids. Here's the current pref order:

1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
4. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
5. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
6. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
8. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
9. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
10. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
11. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
13. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
14. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

The high school arms have lagged some this spring, but that's not uncommon early on. I'll see both Zimmer and Appel this weekend, and wouldn't be completely shocked if they flip-flop on this list come Tuesday.
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#2 Greg Pappas

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 12:28 PM

Great stuff as always Nick, thanks. What are your thoughts on Zunino? Will he have a good chance to stick behind the plate, and what sort of Big Leaguer to you envision him to be? Offensive-minded/average defensive catcher? Is there any current or former player that you feel that --hitting his ceiling--he might compare to?

#3 Stotle

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 12:39 PM

Great stuff as always Nick, thanks. What are your thoughts on Zunino? Will he have a good chance to stick behind the plate, and what sort of Big Leaguer to you envision him to be? Offensive-minded/average defensive catcher? Is there any current or former player that you feel that --hitting his ceiling--he might compare to?


He will definitely stick at catcher. Bat plays closer to ML average grade, which is above-average for the position. A clean comp doesn't come to mind, but he could be a good defensive catcher with .280/.350/.450 type slash.
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#4 Greg Pappas

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 03:54 PM

Great stuff as always Nick, thanks. What are your thoughts on Zunino? Will he have a good chance to stick behind the plate, and what sort of Big Leaguer to you envision him to be? Offensive-minded/average defensive catcher? Is there any current or former player that you feel that --hitting his ceiling--he might compare to?


He will definitely stick at catcher. Bat plays closer to ML average grade, which is above-average for the position. A clean comp doesn't come to mind, but he could be a good defensive catcher with .280/.350/.450 type slash.


There's a lot of value in that... and he seems like a solid probability guy as well. Thanks again.

#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 March 2012 - 07:32 AM

Camden Depot: Weekly Preference List (3/27)
http://camdendepot.b...-14-weekly.html

#6 JeremyStrain

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:15 PM

I'm scared to put them in an order yet, but some one out of the Appel, Zunino, Gausman, Zimmer, Giolito, Buxton group with Buxton at the bottom for me personally.
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#7 JeffLong

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 11:17 PM

My order is (as of right now):

Buxton
Zunino
Zimmer
Appel
Marrero
Correa
Gausman
Giolito
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#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 03:42 PM

Camden Depot: Weekly Preference List (4/11)
http://camdendepot.b...-weekly_11.html

#9 Stotle

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 01:40 PM

Updated today at Camden Depot:

Current Preference List (April 20, 2012)
1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
3. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
4. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
5. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
6. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
7. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
8. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
9. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
10. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

No notes at the article, but I did post a Kevin Gausman video:

http://camdendepot.b... ... ly_20.html

I'm on assignment w/my MLB club this weekend and probably next, but will have more O's-related thoughts and scouting notes next week.
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#10 Greg Pappas

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 01:52 PM

Thanks Nick. Gausman seemed to fall off towards first base quite a bit. Is that a concern to you, or do you feel it's a fairly normal thing?

#11 Stotle

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 03:18 PM

Thanks Nick. Gausman seemed to fall off towards first base quite a bit. Is that a concern to you, or do you feel it's a fairly normal thing?


I don't consider it to be a big issue. He's under control and ends balanced. I prefer he keep the angles.
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#12 Greg Pappas

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 05:14 PM

I don't consider it to be a big issue. He's under control and ends balanced. I prefer he keep the angles.


Thanks, again.

#13 RichardZ

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:48 AM

Here's the way I see it right now, FWIW.

1. 2 high ceiling HS bats (Buxton & Correa)

2. 1 very solid bat at a premium position (Zunino)

3 1 high celing HS arm with health questions (Giolito)

4. A number of good college RHP's who can sit mid 90's (Gausman, Appel, Zimmer)


1) Buxton has the premium bat speed while Correa is a year younger(17), and has the potential of staying in the IF (3B or SS). Most experts think Buxton is gone at #4 and Correa is available.

2) The O's have Wieters on the ML roster and a possible top C prospect in Gabriel Lino. Still Zunino might be the best player on the board when you factor in risk (projection and health), position, and reward. Probably wouldn't be a popular pick.

3. Is Giolito's ceiling that much higher than Appel, Zimmer, or Gausman? A fair question considering his age, competition, and the elbow problem. If it isn't a slam dunk that he's a lot better than those three, I see no reason to go there.

4. I really have no idea which college pitcher is the best bet here. At different times the order changes. Are any of these guys (Appel, Zimmmer, Gausman) true ace material? None have really dominated this year despite some great performances and mid 90's readings. All are probably fairly safe bets to become ML starters but are we talking #1/#2 or are we talking #3?

I find myself gravitating more and more to Carlos Correa. He's doesn't turn 18 until late in the year. He's big with good power projection, decent speed, and a plus arm. He's probably a longshot to stick at SS because of the size but 3B and RF seem like realistic destinations. There is certainly risk with a HS hitter but it's a question of ceiling verses the surer college players.

#14 Mackus

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:56 AM

[quote name="RZNJ"]Here's the way I see it right now, FWIW.

1. 2 high ceiling HS bats (Buxton & Correa)

2. 1 very solid bat at a premium position (Zunino)

3 1 high celing HS arm with health questions (Giolito)

4. A number of good college RHP's who can sit mid 90's (Gausman, Appel, Zimmer)


1) Buxton has the premium bat speed while Correa is a year younger(17), and has the potential of staying in the IF (3B or SS). Most experts think Buxton is gone at #4 and Correa is available.

2) The O's have Wieters on the ML roster and a possible top C prospect in Gabriel Lino. Still Zunino might be the best player on the board when you factor in risk (projection and health), position, and reward. Probably wouldn't be a popular pick.

3. Is Giolito's ceiling that much higher than Appel, Zimmer, or Gausman? A fair question considering his age, competition, and the elbow problem. If it isn't a slam dunk that he's a lot better than those three, I see no reason to go there.

4. I really have no idea which college pitcher is the best bet here. At different times the order changes. Are any of these guys (Appel, Zimmmer, Gausman) true ace material? None have really dominated this year despite some great performances and mid 90's readings. All are probably fairly safe bets to become ML starters but are we talking #1/#2 or are we talking #3?

I find myself gravitating more and more to Carlos Correa. He's doesn't turn 18 until late in the year. He's big with good power projection, decent speed, and a plus arm. He's probably a longshot to stick at SS because of the size but 3B and RF seem like realistic destinations. There is certainly risk with a HS hitter but it's a question of ceiling verses the surer college players.[/quote]

I find myself gravitating more and more to Carlos Correa. He's doesn't turn 18 until late in the year. He's big with good power projection, decent speed, and a plus arm. He's probably a longshot to stick at SS because of the size but 3B and RF seem like realistic destinations. There is certainly risk with a HS hitter but it's a question of ceiling verses the surer college players.[/quote]I know next to nothing about the players at the top of the draft this year right now, but based on the way you've described the guys here, I'd say Correa as well. I'm a big fan of putting heavy emphasis on a guy that is younger than his peers and still dominating.

#15 Stotle

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:27 AM

Here's the way I see it right now, FWIW.

1. 2 high ceiling HS bats (Buxton & Correa)

2. 1 very solid bat at a premium position (Zunino)

3 1 high celing HS arm with health questions (Giolito)

4. A number of good college RHP's who can sit mid 90's (Gausman, Appel, Zimmer)


1) Buxton has the premium bat speed while Correa is a year younger(17), and has the potential of staying in the IF (3B or SS). Most experts think Buxton is gone at #4 and Correa is available.

2) The O's have Wieters on the ML roster and a possible top C prospect in Gabriel Lino. Still Zunino might be the best player on the board when you factor in risk (projection and health), position, and reward. Probably wouldn't be a popular pick.

3. Is Giolito's ceiling that much higher than Appel, Zimmer, or Gausman? A fair question considering his age, competition, and the elbow problem. If it isn't a slam dunk that he's a lot better than those three, I see no reason to go there.

4. I really have no idea which college pitcher is the best bet here. At different times the order changes. Are any of these guys (Appel, Zimmmer, Gausman) true ace material? None have really dominated this year despite some great performances and mid 90's readings. All are probably fairly safe bets to become ML starters but are we talking #1/#2 or are we talking #3?

I find myself gravitating more and more to Carlos Correa. He's doesn't turn 18 until late in the year. He's big with good power projection, decent speed, and a plus arm. He's probably a longshot to stick at SS because of the size but 3B and RF seem like realistic destinations. There is certainly risk with a HS hitter but it's a question of ceiling verses the surer college players.


It's an interesting exercise, and I think a good measure of a scouting director in seeing how they handle this draft -- particularly up top. I think outside of the top 10 it's actually a pretty easy draft to work -- though tough to project.

Regarding the top college arms, the nice thing is that all three have different profiles. So even if the ceiling and risk are comparable, they get there with different characteristics.

I like Correa as a bat, but think it is unlikely he sticks at shortstop. As far as age, Almora is only five months older than Correa, is a bit more refined, and can potentially profile as a plus defender in center field. To me, that might be a better fit for Baltimore.

Giolito isn't as sexy as Taillon was at the same time, but the ceiling is higher than the college arms, who all essentially project to a #2. Appel has the best chance of outperforming his draft time grading.

I love the tools Buxton carries around. He isn't the risk profile I prefer, but in a draft without a standout star, you have to at least consider taking on the risk. I'll update my pref list tomorrow -- other obligations have it on hold right now.
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#16 RichardZ

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:48 AM

What do you consider Almora's offensive profile as a ML player?

I've read reports on him where his tools (speed and power in particular) don't jump out at you.

#17 Stotle

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:58 PM

What do you consider Almora's offensive profile as a ML player?

I've read reports on him where his tools (speed and power in particular) don't jump out at you.


Power can be average or better. It's already solid pre-game and he's going to get stronger. Good plane; good acceleration.

Speed may end-up fringy for center field as he fills in, but I think he will more than account for it with the jumps he gets.

He could be a legit .300/.380/.450 kind of center fielder, with good defense. 3-4 WAR kind of player. Assuming he fully develops, of course.

Buxton could get you 5-7 WAR upside, but with a whole lot more risk.
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#18 RichardZ

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:56 AM

With Giolito's health being in question, the college pitchers being underwhelming, and the general health risk associated with any pitcher it seems a good time to try and pin down the best position prospects available at #4. Let's start with just naming the top 4, who appear to be (right now).

1. Byron Buxton CF
2. Mike Zunino C
3. Carlos Correa SS (most assume he's a future 3B)
4. Albert Almora CF


It seems that Zunino is the safest pick and he plays a premium position well. Of course, he's not a sexy pick because the O's have Wieters right now.

Buxton is the most athletic and might have the most upside but there is some risk with the bat.

Correa probably has the most physical upside as far as bat and power but is a good bet to outgrow SS. However, the reports are that he's a good infielder so 3B sounds like a logical projection. As another HS kid, his bat also has some risk just like Buxton's.

Almora is probably the safer HS bat out of the three mentioned and is the most polished player, again, according to reports. He probably doesn't have the upside of either Buxton or Correa.

Chances are pretty strong that Buxton is not there at #4. Any of the other three could be, with Almora pretty much a lock to be there at #4. Depending on how early the college pitchers go, all three (Correa, Zunino, Almora) could be there. Do you have a problem with any of those players being the #4 pick for the O's? Do you have a preference for one of those players? Do you prefer to go with the college pitching which has some health risk but is probably easier to judge on talent? There is no doubt that Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, and Stroman have talent and at worst should be back end starters or setup men.

#19 Greg Pappas

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 12:06 PM

I am probably in the minority, but I'd rather have both Correa and Almora over Buxton. That's not a knock on Buxton, but I'm higher on the other two because they seem like surer bets to be quality Major Leaguers and Buxton could fizzle out at AA (or be a great big leaguer :P). Time will tell. If the O's do get Buxton, I will not be disappointed. Truth is, I don't follow the draft as I have in the past, but I try to at least keep up-to-date on the top players.

At this point, my personal top-rated prospects (in order) are Correa, Almora, Zimmer, Gausman, Buxton, Appel, Zunino, and Cecchini.

Seems like a bit of a down year at the top of the draft.

Edit: I'm updating my preferred list from yesterday. I didn't know Zimmer was missing a start with an injury. His velocity was down somewhat in his last start. It's a minor concern, but a concern nonetheless. I've always been high on Fried, and Law said scouts love him.

Correa, Almora, Gausman, Buxton, Appel, Fried, Zimmer and Cecchini.

#20 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 11:35 AM

Camden Depot: Weekly Preference List 5/9
http://camdendepot.b...-pref-list.html




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