Round 8 - Pick 227

Catcher - Aledo HS

I liked his father in Rocky.

Brad Ciolek noted that his home runs were frequently landing on Eutaw Street when the Orioles brought him in for a workout. 

He tweeted that he's going to sign. 

According to perfect game he has 99.5 percentile exit velocity.

https://www.perfectg....aspx?ID=483047

Slot was $188k, but he's probably an overslot guy?









Creed Willems@CreedWillems11·









After praying and talking with family I have decided that I am going to forgo TCU and sign with the Baltimore Orioles. Thank you to TCU baseball for extending me the offer and all they have done for me. But I’m happy to say, Go O’s

Was this guy on anyone's radar before the draft?

The PG link above had him 130th among HS players Nationally.

The PG link above had him 130th among HS players Nationally.

I guess that's not bad. Not the kind of guy I would have wanted them to spend the money they saved on, but it beats not spending it.

I've seen it kinda play out in years past, where like someone I know was real high on this HS kid and wanted to pay him whatever it took to get him. I hadn't even heard of the kid, kinda like this one, had a decent scholarship somewhere, but wasn't in the top 100 HS kids or anything. I was kinda meh about it.

But then 3 years later you see his name start to crop up in the top 10 or so of the first round and you're like, man that name is familiar, why do I remember that? And then it hits me it was that kid that this guy wanted to get for a couple mil (old draft rules back then), and now he's going to be up for a $5-10m bonus, and I was like crap. Totally whiffed on that one.

You just don't quite get the respect for the overslot game until this happens and you don't see it at first, or just haven't seen them, and then 2-3 years later they are a top of the first round pick.

I've seen it kinda play out in years past, where like someone I know was real high on this HS kid and wanted to pay him whatever it took to get him. I hadn't even heard of the kid, kinda like this one, had a decent scholarship somewhere, but wasn't in the top 100 HS kids or anything. I was kinda meh about it.

But then 3 years later you see his name start to crop up in the top 10 or so of the first round and you're like, man that name is familiar, why do I remember that? And then it hits me it was that kid that this guy wanted to get for a couple mil (old draft rules back then), and now he's going to be up for a $5-10m bonus, and I was like crap. Totally whiffed on that one.

You just don't quite get the respect for the overslot game until this happens and you don't see it at first, or just haven't seen them, and then 2-3 years later they are a top of the first round pick.

I think in Creeds case, they are trusting the scout that followed him.  I don't worry much on the rankings, especially high school rankings.  They saw something they liked and they are paying up a little bit

I guess that's not bad. Not the kind of guy I would have wanted them to spend the money they saved on, but it beats not spending it.

I don't get the vibe that all of their (limited) savings in the first round are going to this kid.  If it does, I'd lean towards not being in favor of the strategy.  With the caveat that it is possible that they just flat out rated Cowser as an equal or better prospect as all the other option.  That level of disagreement between various teams and the "consensus" of more noteworthy public scouting sources seems completely common and unremarkable to me.  We'll never know for sure, Elias & Co. will of course say that he was but I don't think that should carry any weight as being inherently truthful.

I don't get the vibe that all of their (limited) savings in the first round are going to this kid. If it does, I'd lean towards not being in favor of the strategy. With the caveat that it is possible that they just flat out rated Cowser as an equal or better prospect as all the other option. That level of disagreement between various teams and the "consensus" of more noteworthy public scouting sources seems completely common and unremarkable to me. We'll never know for sure, Elias & Co. will of course say that he was but I don't think that should carry any weight as being inherently truthful.

Here's a list of all of the high-ceiling HS players from the 2104 draft.   I chose it randomly because that's 7 years ago and these guys have had enough time to make a name for themselves.   First round and where they were picked.

 5. Nick Gordon SS

 6. Alex Jackson C

12. Kodi Maderios LHP

16. Touki Touissaint RHP

22. Grant Holmes   RHP

23.  Derek Hill CF

24. Cole Tucker  SS

26. Michael Chavis 2B

28. Foster Griffin LHP

30. Luis Oritz RHP  (Yes!  That Luis Ortiz)

Now, I have to admit I haven't been following baseball like I used to but how many of these guys were on the All-star team for either league?    What percentage of these guys are difference makers at the ML level?    How many of these guys had pre-draft writeups describing them as high ceiling, plus this, plus that?

You can bet that most of the guys on this list were CONSENSUS 1st rounders too.   This isn't to say you should draft HS players in the 1st round.   It's to say that the draft is an inexact science so why do so many get so bent out of shape when one team goes against the CONSENSUS and does it their way?

I don't see any Cadyn Greniers (who has gained back a sliver or prospect status this year) in the Orioles last 3 drafts.   People are treating Kjerstad like a bust over a heart issue that came out of left field.   I look forward to seeing how this draft and the two preceding drafts work out.  When the Orioles drafted Kyle Stowers a couple of years ago he was described as having "average tools" across the board.  Pretty boring!   Now he's in AA OPS'ing over .900 and looks like a real prospect (if he can cut down on his K's).    I don't see any total misses to this point in the first 1-5 rounds of the first 2 drafts under Elias.

I get that but you better be really damned good at picking them, because just by the law of averages, that example is the exception rather than the norm.

You'd be surprised. In a LOT of cases the HS kids that you'll see at the top of the draft out of college really stand out, for one of two reasons, either they are a killer package already and could probably go pretty high as a HS player, but they really want to go to college, OR they are REALLY projectable and the jumps you are waiting to see are based more on growth than development.

I mean example wise, I know of a local kid going to....Frostburg I think? I forget where but somewhere Baltimore or north in MD. But as a HS he's got a really similar profile to the two kids we just took the past two years in the first round. He would have signed for pennies now, and the risk is you've got to see if he does produce in the way you think he's going to, good hit tool, very good eye. Athletic, fast, strong arm (pitches too), and is a lefty. But to get him for pennies now vs millions and use of a high pick later? That is the game within a game right there and why this stuff is so exciting for some people. You get a lot wrong in this area, lots of reasons players don't pan out, but when you get one right? Man. That's a good feeling.

The sophomore eligible guys are probably going to be slot of a little over.   The HS kid's slot was 188K.   I have no idea whether he signed for slot, 300K or even 500K.   No idea.    Our very last pick from Louisburg JC will have to be an overslot to get signed.   The slot is 125K, I believe.  It's only a JC but this kid's stats are off the charts and the report said he was a power/speed guy whose arm might be average or below average.   North Carolina state offered him a scholarship so he must have a little something going for him.   I would guess that either he or the HS kid would be garner the most overslot money available.    Since the Orioles are the only team that was connected to Cowser before #9, it's safe to assume they had a deal worked out before they drafted him.   

Drafting safely isn't the strategy I want to see employed from my team because I think "safe" players rarely become stars

There isn't any type of player who become stars more than "rarely".  In most drafts maybe a handful will become stars and another two or three handfuls will become regulars. 

You'd have to define "safe" and "risky" before trying to quantitatively say if one or the other is more likely to become a star.  By the nature of those definitions, you are implying that safe will hit more frequently but risky would hit bigger.  Intuitively it makes sense, but I don't know if it makes sense in actuality.