FanGraphs: If the Orioles Were Serious About Competing, How Good Could They Get?

It's not really a thought exercise when you divorce yourself from every aspect of reality.

Nearly every premise in that is misguided or wrong.  Maybe it's well written if you didn't know anything about Baseball, but it's for a Baseball sight about Baseball.

I find it funny that both of these sentences are in the same story.

The Orioles are in a tough situation, and many of their historical problems can be linked to the ill-fated decision to leave St. Louis in 1954.

Last year, the Orioles ran a final major league payroll of $63 million, 28th in the majors. The Rays, who again finished just three games ahead of Baltimore and are the poster child for cutthroat frugality, outspent the O’s by some $23 million. Stearns’ Brewers — not the Mets or Yankees, but the Milwaukee freakin’ Brewers — more than doubled the Orioles’ payroll at $137 million.

Why was the decision to leave St. Louis ill-fated? The Browns certainly couldn't stay there and try to compete with the Cardinals.

Why was the decision to leave St. Louis ill-fated? The Browns certainly couldn't stay there and try to compete with the Cardinals.

The point is a stupid one.  The argument (apparently seriously) is that if they didn't leave STL, they'd be in the AL Central and things would be different/better because "the Orioles" wouldn't be in the AL East.  Because the AL East is the problem.

The point is a stupid one.  The argument (apparently seriously) is that if they didn't leave STL, they'd be in the AL Central and things would be different/better because "the Orioles" wouldn't be in the AL East.  Because the AL East is the problem.

Not like they have never did realignment in the MLB.

They had no problem competing in the MLB East for years.

I think if you are going to promise the fanbase something, you should try and follow through.

I know there is still left in the off season, but the fat lady is warming up on the sidelines.

They had no problem competing in the MLB East for years.

The author was just trying to be cute.  He tried that a lot in this piece and if you just want to write something, read something, fine. 

If you want to be smarter, more informed, press the thought buttons, then this isn't really the piece for anyone.

If you want to be smarter, more informed, press the thought buttons, then this isn't really the piece for anyone.

I don't think an article based around the idea of signing Judge, Turner, Verlander, Rodon, Senga, and Nimmo is really meant to be a serious take on an offseason plan.

I think if you are going to promise the fanbase something, you should try and follow through.

This was the point of the article.  He decided his 'thought exercise' was to take the Orioles from basically zero payroll right to the Luxury Tax max...because that is what making the best team you could have looks like. (not.)

I get the impression he thinks this is a serious approach, in the sense they could do this if they wanted too.  It ignores every reality of every aspect of building a team like this.

If the goal is just to inspire discussion off the ridiculous nature of the article, fine, That seems like weak sauce.

We SHOULD be talking about what the best the Orioles could do this offseason (nobody really is), but spending 170M off of Fangraphs contract projections isn't it.  Beyond that, all of the setup stuff is wrong, but it pushes a lot of fake narratives.

This was the point of the article.  He decided his 'thought exercise' was to take the Orioles from basically zero payroll right to the Luxury Tax max...because that is what making the best team you could have looks like. (not.)

 

I get the impression he thinks this is a serious approach, in the sense they could do this if they wanted too.  It ignores every reality of every aspect of building a team like this.

 

If the goal is just to inspire discussion off the ridiculous nature of the article, fine, That seems like weak sauce.

 

We SHOULD be talking about what the best the Orioles could do this offseason (nobody really is), but spending 170M off of Fangraphs contract projections isn't it.  Beyond that, all of the setup stuff is wrong, but it pushes a lot of fake narratives.

Wasnt that long ago, the payroll was 163 million and the team still made money.

I dont expect them to spend, just to spend.

I would rather they spent wisely, as some of their decisions to spend money wasnt the best choice. Fiscal Responsibility would be a good term to use.

In good faith, I cant condone playing small ball, with this is clearly a mid market team, making money.

According to Forbes, last revenue was 251M, player expenses 66M.

Granted there was other team expenses, but I am sure, they pocketed a good chunk of change.

This doesnt sit well with me.

I don't think an article based around the idea of signing Judge, Turner, Verlander, Rodon, Senga, and Nimmo is really meant to be a serious take on an offseason plan.

While I generally agree, it's presented as such.

Let's take Judge.  

In a vacuum, I'd love to have Judge,....but 'that contract' isn't what gets him to Baltimore.  He has more worth on and off the field by staying in NY or making a move to the West Coast (SF or LAD).  The reality for Baltimore is they would have to overpay by a wide margin to get him to come to Baltimore.  It's be something crazy like 8/375 or something like that.  It would have to be an overpay to the point the MLBPA almost forces him to set a new AAV/Total record.

....but go look at Pujols nad the Angels and ask yourself if you think that worked out good for them at all.  Judge to BAL would be like Pujols to LAA plus 15+M per year.  Time gets everyone and while Nelson Cruz has proven to be an exception (until this year), he's still the exception.

Over the next 4-5 years, the delta in OPS between Hays and Judge will not be more than it was last year.  Hays had his worst-ish season and Judge had his best.  Judge doesn't want to be in Baltimore for anything but a bribe and IF he actually accepted it, he still doesn't want to be here and get booed in NY, wish he had done something else, etc.  Hays wants to be here.  It's not the actual AAV that matters, it's the consequence of that signing for other things.  If you are going to do that, then every guy is going to want you to do that for them too.  It's the opposite of the culture you need to develop in Baltimore to be successful.

Hays is not better than Judge and I'll take the absolute value of Judge 100 times out of 100 if I'm picking my fantasy team, but Judge isn't an option for the Orioles at any level (thought exercise or not) and Hays could easily be more productive next year than last year.

Hopefully nobody here is chasing the high point of a stock in their investment portfolio.

Why do I need to replace Ryan Mountcastle with Brandon Drury?

If I suggested we trade Mountcastle for a 9M/per Drury, I should be mocked.

If I suggested that we could trade our 9M/per Drury to another team for "Mountcastle", I should be mocked.

Adding Drury for 9M and putting Mountcastle on the bench didn't make the team better in 2023 (or any year).

The only way that would make any sense is if you were making a significant trade for something and RM was part of that deal and you are replacing him at 1B with a FA option to execute the other thing....

....but we aren't allowed to trade in this 'thought exercise', or consider anything that actually got to the point people are excited about things in Baltimore or anything else that would actually matter wrt winning.  Because ONLY spending can make you have the best team you can have. Right.

Don't we hope Cowser is Nimmo? 

Why would I invest 5 years and 110M into Brandon Nimmo?  Why does everyone suddenly want to (and Nimmo has been suggested here by others) chase 30 year olds off best seasons with top dollar.  

If you want to do that, 2019 was the year to do things like this.  Just pay for a guy to hold a position for 4+ years and take the time to build up the system to produce those type players.  You don't have to not-compete to get to Nimmo (or even Cowser, honestly).

If we wanted to put Cowser into a Soto trade and improve the short-term opportunity of the club great, but we sat out moves like that.  Now we're going to put Cowser in LF (CF quality defense in a big left-field, that makes some sense)....and we have to replace him?

Nimmo always seems like some hollow stats to me.  Maybe he'll be good in the coming years (better than he's been) but I wouldn't chase him with 20M/per when I have younger, similar options and he isn't going to move the needle much.  It wouldn't surprise me if Cowser out-produced Nimmo over the next 5 years and it's not because I love Cowser so much.

I get the impression he thinks this is a serious approach

I think we've identified the problem

I think we've identified the problem

"So, just for fun, let’s see what kind of roster we could build in free agency if the Orioles did decide to spend to the tax threshold. In other words, let’s take the friendly bird on the O’s cap and replace him with a beefy, muscular bird. "

He takes time in the article to answer the critics of his 'thought exercise'.

If you just want to spend 173M because you think it's fun...whatever.  Nothing to do with the title of the article.

"If you were serious about competing" is (or at least should be) a real discussion.  This article isn't a real discussion, fun or not.  Beyond that, all of the narrative is (as I already said) misguided or wrong.

It's uninformed, at best.

"just for fun"

That ranks right up there, with "honey, we need to talk."