BSL: Potential Contract Numbers for Lamar Jackson’s Next Deal

https://baltimorespo...sons-next-deal/

Any reason Watson wasn’t mentioned? Are we just hoping the entire NFL decides the Browns were crazy? Cause Lamar and every other top player should be shooting for 100% guaranteed, at least to start negotiations. And it’s tough to use the “you haven’t done much in the playoffs” argument, which is really the most compelling anti-Lamar argument, when he can again just point to 1 playoff win for Mr. 5/230M

5/$210M with $72M guaranteed is not remotely close to getting it done.  If that's all you are willing to offer then you do not want to extend him, simple as that.  That's fine, you don't have to want to extend him, but if you do, you have to pay a top-of-market-deal.  He's not gonna sign a deal that makes him the 5th highest paid (and 13th highest paid by guaranteed dollars) quarterback.  Honestly even if you guarantee the entire deal he probably turns it down.  

It's going to be somewhere in the 7/360 range, with 80+% guarantees, or its not happening.

He is young enough to earn a Mahomes type deal, 10 years, and Mahomes deal is structured uniquely to be team friendly despite the overall value. If the Ravens are creative they can go 10/$480M, $105M guarantee. Check all the boxes that makes him more than Mahomes overall, more guaranteed than Allen, but if things go south then they don’t even come close to being on the hook for $480M, and the way Mahomes is structured if they released him at some point it’s only a year’s salary dead money.

I would never do $200M+ fully guaranteed only. I’d let anyone walk before I’d do that.

If they go the conventional route, then it more like 6/$300M, $106M guaranteed. Structured on a way you are reworking the deal in three years anyway to avoid so $65M cap hit or something.

The Mahomes structure would be my preferred way to go.

Any reason Watson wasn’t mentioned? Are we just hoping the entire NFL decides the Browns were crazy? Cause Lamar and every other top player should be shooting for 100% guaranteed, at least to start negotiations. And it’s tough to use the “you haven’t done much in the playoffs” argument, which is really the most compelling anti-Lamar argument, when he can again just point to 1 playoff win for Mr. 5/230M

Too much of an unknown for Watson, plus I think there are a lot of safeguards in that deal for the Browns. He definitely fits the criteria I listed (26, 1st round pick, Pro Bowler), but I think the amount of money he got was inflated because of how desperate the Browns were. I think he and Lamar have similar negotiation leverage, and 5/210/70 is more of a level contract for both sides.

It's going to be somewhere in the 7/360 range, with 80+% guarantees, or its not happening.

You think the Ravens will give Lamar 288 million dollars fully guaranteed after coming off an injury? I'd be floored.

He is young enough to earn a Mahomes type deal, 10 years, and Mahomes deal is structured uniquely to be team friendly despite the overall value. If the Ravens are creative they can go 10/$480M, $105M guarantee. Check all the boxes that makes him more than Mahomes overall, more guaranteed than Allen, but if things go south then they don’t even come close to being on the hook for $480M, and the way Mahomes is structured if they released him at some point it’s only a year’s salary dead money.

I would never do $200M+ fully guaranteed only. I’d let anyone walk before I’d do that.

If they go the conventional route, then it more like 6/$300M, $106M guaranteed. Structured on a way you are reworking the deal in three years anyway to avoid so $65M cap hit or something.

The Mahomes structure would be my preferred way to go.

Well said, Mike. I agree with you. The years/overall money Mahomes got is somewhat deceiving and pretty team-friendly. Even if Lamar gets hurt again or his production declines (STANDARD concern for any player, not singling him out), the reduced guaranteed money would definitely be in the team's favor.

If 5/$210M with an insultingly low guarantee was anywhere near what Lamar was willing to sign he'd have done so last August.  Literally a 0% chance of that deal getting it done, IMO.

Too much of an unknown for Watson, plus I think there are a lot of safeguards in that deal for the Browns. He definitely fits the criteria I listed (26, 1st round pick, Pro Bowler), but I think the amount of money he got was inflated because of how desperate the Browns were. I think he and Lamar have similar negotiation leverage, and 5/210/70 is more of a level contract for both sides.

That's fair enough about Watson, it could end up an outlier, I don't know. The guarantees might be an outlier but I don't see why the APY would be.

 

I do agree with Mackus though, if your contract was good enough for Lamar the Ravens would have already given it to him. Can't imagine 70M guaranteed will be anywhere close enough. Dak got more guaranteed coming off a far worse injury (IMO) with a lesser resume (IMO, but some people love Dak). 

 

Derek Carr at age 31 just got 3/121.5. While only 24M is guaranteed now another 41M guaranteed as of next March.

 

The only way 70M works IMO is if like another 100M or something becomes guaranteed in a year. 

 

I don't think 42M is enough on a relatively short deal either. Again that's barely above Carr. Even if one argues that Allen is better, the cap and contracts always go up. Even with the Browns being desperate I feel like Watson's APY would be the minimum standard. 

He is young enough to earn a Mahomes type deal, 10 years, and Mahomes deal is structured uniquely to be team friendly despite the overall value. If the Ravens are creative they can go 10/$480M, $105M guarantee. Check all the boxes that makes him more than Mahomes overall, more guaranteed than Allen, but if things go south then they don’t even come close to being on the hook for $480M, and the way Mahomes is structured if they released him at some point it’s only a year’s salary dead money.

I would never do $200M+ fully guaranteed only. I’d let anyone walk before I’d do that.

If they go the conventional route, then it more like 6/$300M, $106M guaranteed. Structured on a way you are reworking the deal in three years anyway to avoid so $65M cap hit or something.

The Mahomes structure would be my preferred way to go.

Really good post Mike.  I suspect if a LT gets done, your take is going to be close to the numbers.

You think the Ravens will give Lamar 288 million dollars fully guaranteed after coming off an injury? I'd be floored.

Do I think they will? I don't know. But I think that's what it will take.

If 5/$210M with an insultingly low guarantee was anywhere near what Lamar was willing to sign he'd have done so last August. Literally a 0% chance of that deal getting it done, IMO.

I really do believe it's going to be something in the neighborhood of a 50 million AAV with more guaranteed than Watson.Cleveland has decimated the QB contract market, and it's not going back any time soon.

Do I think they will? I don't know. But I think that's what it will take.

Then the Ravens need to start planning for a new QB.  The 100% guaranteed QB mega deal will cripple a team if everything doesn't go 100% right and even then there are major risks.

Then the Ravens need to start planning for a new QB. The 100% guaranteed QB mega deal will cripple a team if everything doesn't go 100% right and even then there are major risks.

I agree.

I do think that there's a chance that the market might correct itself in a decade or so if enough teams are willing to say no to fully guaranteed, or mostly guaranteed contracts. With that said, I think that at the time Lamar is negotiating his next deal, it's going to be awfully hard for him to swallow that a guy who didn't play football for a full year and has 22 civil suits against him should be getting that kind of guarantee, and a former MVP should not.

I agree.
I do think that there's a chance that the market might correct itself in a decade or so if enough teams are willing to say no to fully guaranteed, or mostly guaranteed contracts. With that said, I think that at the time Lamar is negotiating his next deal, it's going to be awfully hard for him to swallow that a guy who didn't play football for a full year and has 22 civil suits against him should be getting that kind of guarantee, and a former MVP should not.

Yep...the Browns absolutely F'upped the whole system and its going to take, as you said, the league as a whole putting their collective foot down and putting a lid on the madness. Unless Lamar is deeply connected to the team on an emotional level, what Cleveland did may have been the hammer going down on him ever signing here long term.

I agree.

I do think that there's a chance that the market might correct itself in a decade or so if enough teams are willing to say no to fully guaranteed, or mostly guaranteed contracts. With that said, I think that at the time Lamar is negotiating his next deal, it's going to be awfully hard for him to swallow that a guy who didn't play football for a full year and has 22 civil suits against him should be getting that kind of guarantee, and a former MVP should not.

I think it will correct itself much sooner.  There's just no way to regularly compete in a salary cap league with frequent injuries with fully guaranteed mega deals.

 

Unless I'm wrong, if Watson were to suffer a career ending injury this season, Browns are still on the hook for the $50 mil a year cap hits for the life of the contract.

I think it will correct itself much sooner. There's just no way to regularly compete in a salary cap league with frequent injuries with fully guaranteed mega deals.

Unless I'm wrong, if Watson were to suffer a career ending injury this season, Browns are still on the hook for the $50 mil a year cap hits for the life of the contract.

All it takes is one team to decide that they're willing to give the next big contract a full guarantee just to get the thing done. If that happens, then it's a trend. If it's going to stop, it's going to have to stop immediately, and that might result in Lamar deciding not to re-sign.

I think it will correct itself much sooner.  There's just no way to regularly compete in a salary cap league with frequent injuries with fully guaranteed mega deals.

 

Unless I'm wrong, if Watson were to suffer a career ending injury this season, Browns are still on the hook for the $50 mil a year cap hits for the life of the contract.

I agree. Plus it's the Browns we're talking about. To be honest if that's the contract Lamar is looking for, I personally would rather move on.

I agree. Plus it's the Browns we're talking about. To be honest if that's the contract Lamar is looking for, I personally would rather move on.

We shall see. Even if it doesn't take a fully, or mostly guaranteed contract, the guaranteed money is going to be going up substantially imo. That is now going to be the bargaining chip that teams try to one-up each other with.