65 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

Age is a MAJOR factor in evaluating minor league performance.  You can't gloss it over.  A 28 year-old pitching well in the minors is not nearly as impressive or as easy to project forward to the majors as a 24 y/o or 22 y/o or 20 y/o doing so.  It's somewhat less of a factor at AAA because there are a lot of older AAAA type guys bouncing around, but it's still a big deal.  But his last two seasons at AA are utterly meaningless in terms of impressing via stats.  It's no different than Urrutia raking at AA as an older guy.

 

Yes if you are talking about "prospects" but that's not exactly what Drake is. He is in the sense that he doesn't have ML experience, but he's older and is more or less ready to be tested and either kicked to the curb or used. Like I was saying before, don't look at him as a prospect - piece for the future, look at him as a cheap guy with 2 decent/good pitches that if he can hold his own, then awesome, and if he can't you aren't out anything.

 

We are talking about a replacement level BP arm here basically. You are saying that you don't think they are worth giving a shot and because they are older or whatever you are holding it against them, but I'm saying it really doesn't matter cause we are talking about completely replaceable parts, and it's better trial and error with them until you find some that cheaply fill out your pen and save you money.

[JeremyStrain]

I was looking at this earlier today. I figure that we have 12 pitchers in AA and AAA that should be ready to be bullpen pieces by 2016 or at least awfully close (Davies, Wright, Wilson, McFarland, Jones, Drake, Johnson, Kline, Bridwell, Berry, Givens and Escat). That's not counting Garcia who should probably also be on that list and it also excludes Gamboa who I think will never be successful.

 

I feel that keeping two of Davies, Wright and Wilson in the minors as starters as depth as well as Kline to see whether he develops is a good idea. I question whether Bridwell will be ready by then as he's the furthest away and I also think that keeping Givens and Berry in the minors as depth wouldn't be terrible. I also question whether McFarland, Jones and Escat are good enough. But realistically that means we need to graduate at least Johnson (or let him go elsewhere), Drake and one or two of the three guys listed above.

 

It would be awfully easy to have a bullpen made up of Britton, Brach, Davies, Drake, Johnson, McFarland and Wright next year.

 

Completely agree, I have been looking at the same for the past couple years. They have a lot of arms that are similar talent wise that could either be nothing at all, or might be half way useful RP. It's a much better way to build your pen then by trading for them, or signing them to FA deals. The bullpen should be the place you save money, especially with a guy like Buck who gets the most out of BP guys and would handle them well.

[Mackus]

Yes if you are talking about "prospects" but that's not exactly what Drake is. He is in the sense that he doesn't have ML experience, but he's older and is more or less ready to be tested and either kicked to the curb or used. Like I was saying before, don't look at him as a prospect - piece for the future, look at him as a cheap guy with 2 decent/good pitches that if he can hold his own, then awesome, and if he can't you aren't out anything.

 

We are talking about a replacement level BP arm here basically. You are saying that you don't think they are worth giving a shot and because they are older or whatever you are holding it against them, but I'm saying it really doesn't matter cause we are talking about completely replaceable parts, and it's better trial and error with them until you find some that cheaply fill out your pen and save you money.

 

Maybe we're talking past each other.  I'm saying that it doesn't matter at all what Drake did at AA, and he'll have to be very good at AAA for much longer than a couple weeks before anyone should start looking at him as an MLB option.  He may eventually be next man up if we have a need arise, but I don't think he's somebody that can push anyone from the MLB bullpen out because he's pitched well at AAA.  I also don't think he is a guy that you pencil into an MLB pen spot for next season or whenever.  He's a good guy to have as depth at AAA.

 

He's the type of guy that has to wait for an opportunity to pop up for him, and if that happens, he has to take advantage of it right away.

[JeremyStrain]

Maybe we're talking past each other.  I'm saying that it doesn't matter at all what Drake did at AA, and he'll have to be very good at AAA for much longer than a couple weeks before anyone should start looking at him as an MLB option.  He may eventually be next man up if we have a need arise, but I don't think he's somebody that can push anyone from the MLB bullpen out because he's pitched well at AAA.  I also don't think he is a guy that you pencil into an MLB pen spot for next season or whenever.  He's a good guy to have as depth at AAA.

 

He's the type of guy that has to wait for an opportunity to pop up for him, and if that happens, he has to take advantage of it right away.

 

Yep, pretty much. We aren't disagreeing so much, just two different views of the same thing. Not a promotion like a KG promotion where you know how much potential he has and need to get him up there, but more of a give him a chance and see what you have, and then you know if you drop him from the list and keep him as space filler or he cashes in and really helps out.

 

The biggest reason I gave him that token spot was because he's already on the 40 man, and he'll get a shot at some point this year. Injuries or whatnot. I think the performance in AA last year was a good sign, but not necessarily a reason for anything. It was just nice to see that his recovery had come around.

 

There were a bunch of guys I could have put there to make the same point, and some of them will get chances too, like you said we just have to hope they take advantage when they get their shot.

[SportsGuy]

You're going to be so upset next year when the Orioles tender Matusz a contract, resign O'Day (3 and $18M) and end up spending some $18 million on a bullpen with four players making the minimum.

And we will hear from some at how great DD is at building a roster!  

[Matt_P]

And we will hear from some at how great DD is at building a roster!  

 

We need 15 relievers as depth. What happens if every single one of our pitchers gets hurt at the same time and one of our guys in AAA? That's when you'll be happy we have that depth.

 

We'll have to see how much playing time guys like Drake and Johnson get in September. Because the Os won't go into 2016 with only two proven relievers (Britton and Brach).

[SportsGuy]

We need 15 relievers as depth. What happens if every single one of our pitchers gets hurt at the same time and one of our guys in AAA? That's when you'll be happy we have that depth.
 
We'll have to see how much playing time guys like Drake and Johnson get in September. Because the Os won't go into 2016 with only two proven relievers (Britton and Brach).

Luckily this team has been drafting relievers like crazy in recent years. The pen is the last thing to be concerned about unless they drafted dog shit relievers.

[Chris B]

.96 ERA, 30 K in 18.2 IP.

He's pitching well...

[Chris B]

Dammit Buster scooped me.

@Buster_ESPN: Oliver Drake, the pride of @NMHschool, has been summoned to the big leagues today by the Baltimore Orioles. http://t.co/eVq4m87zDi

[Chris B]

.96 ERA, 30 strikeouts in 18.2 as the Norfolk closer

[bnickle]

His numbers this year in AAA are insanely good. Really interested to see his stuff in short innings burst. Crazy thing is he had to be one of the final guys on the 40 man roster bubble this past spring.

[Chris B]

It took Navy almost 100 years to have a Midshipman in the majors and now it has two this season.

[Russ]

Ahoy shipmate! Good for him.

[FFH]

Pretty good debut for him. The splitter is fantastic, but I don't know if it's going to be enough. With some time I think hitters will be able to figure it out.

[Chris B]

Drake's coming up.

[Markus]

Love the Drake.

[Chris B]

Speaking of Drake, named to the IL Postseason All Star Team:

 

Oliver Drake, 28, is 1-2 with 23 saves and a 0.82 ERA in 42 relief outings with Norfolk this season. The Naval Academy product held IL batters to a miniscule .151 average, as 38 of his 42 appearances were scoreless. Drake, who was also named a midseason All-Star, has registered 43 more strikeouts (66) than hits allowed (23) in 44.0 innings pitched. His 23 saves rank 2^nd in the International League and are tied for the 4^th-most in a single season in Tides franchise history. He is the third Norfolk reliever to be named to the IL's Postseason All-Star Team since the Tides became an Orioles affiliate, joining Cory Doyne (2007) and Jairo Asencio (2013).

 

http://www.milb.com/...s_t568&sid=t568

[Chris B]

Sent down again. I guess to help with Norfolk's playoff race?

[BrandonWarne]

I take a look at Orioles right-handed reliever Oliver Drake to see if he has a chance for a breakout at age 29 here. 

[JeremyStrain]

Is it REALLY fair to call him a "29 year old lifer?"

 

He was on a very normal advancement track, playing at A, AA and AAA in his age 24 season. Nothing wrong with that, and that was as a SP, which he was never going to stick at long term. Moving him to RP would advance him much faster as you are seeing now. He's never had a great 3rd pitch, but his arsenal works well in relief.

 

He got hurt at the beginning of his age 25 season, came back as a RP at the tail end of his age 26 season. At age 27 he had his first full season as a RP and his first healthy season since he was 24, and put up stellar numbers before going to the AFL. It was after that season I put him in my top 10 prospects and got a lot of head scratching around here. Most people don't like to put RP in a "top prospect" list, but my POV is I'm looking for the guys that will make a ML impact, and a good RP is not only an impact, but allows you to save money in the pen for other places on the roster. Last year he proved me right and was even more dominant as a RP in AAA and later in BAL.

 

That's not a "lifer" that's just a guy with unfortunate timing on a serious injury. If there's ever a window in development you don't want to see a major year sapping injury its when they hit AA which is exactly where he was at the time. In the end he got moved to RP which is where he should have been, but he basically lost 2 full seasons to the injury, so the advanced age shouldn't be a big deal. Not to mention, he's a RP, does it really matter? They are more often than not older developers since most of them are failed SP who are given years to try to make it as a SP before converting and adjusting to RP.