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Fantasy Football 2014 / Start or Sit


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#41 bnickle

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:38 PM

So I have the 4th pick in my 12 team league. Standard snake order.

A guy wants to trade his 1st rounder (5th pick) and his 5th rounder for my 2nd and 3rd. I know draft pick trades are relatively rare but I'm considering it. QBs get 6 points per TD so by the time I could get a QB in rounds 2 or 3, the elite guys are gone. If I make the trade, I can get someone like Forte/RB and Manning back-to-back.

Thoughts?

Do it. It's essentially your 3rd for his 5th. So, your 1st WR or 2RB. What's that drop off?? The top end WRs will be gone by the 3rd anyway. RB 2 is fairly deep anyway.

#42 Chris B

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:43 PM

Do it. It's essentially your 3rd for his 5th. So, your 1st WR or 2RB. What's that drop off?? The top end WRs will be gone by the 3rd anyway. RB 2 is fairly deep anyway.

 

Yeah, I'm really considering doing it. Just might do a mock with just my normal picks to see what happens.

 

I could also get a guy like Megatron with that 1st round 5th pick and wait on a QB. As you said, RB2 is deep.



#43 bnickle

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:53 PM

So if I have this right you move from 21 st overall to 5th(16 spot jump). You drop from 28th to 53(25 spots). I think the difference in value from 5 to 21 will be noticeable from the value from 28 to 53.


Just do research and make sure there is someone you really value at 5. Manning makes sense since its a 6 point TD passing league.


Also, do some mocks and see what RBs and WRs are going around both 28 and 52 to try to figure out the difference in value there.
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#44 Mackus

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 08:28 PM

So if I have this right you move from 21 st overall to 5th(16 spot jump). You drop from 28th to 53(25 spots). I think the difference in value from 5 to 21 will be noticeable from the value from 28 to 53.



Just do research and make sure there is someone you really value at 5. Manning makes sense since its a 6 point TD passing league.



Also, do some mocks and see what RBs and WRs are going around both 28 and 52 to try to figure out the difference in value there.


Agree. Do it before he does the math.
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#45 Chris B

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 05:20 PM

So how do you guys prep?

 

Do you do compile/look for specific stats when preparing or kind of just go for the name or gut feeling?



#46 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 06:54 PM

So how do you guys prep?

 

Do you do compile/look for specific stats when preparing or kind of just go for the name or gut feeling?

About 50 mock drafts. It helps if you know where your draft slot is. Gives you a good idea of who you can realistically expect to be around for each of your picks, at least for the first half of the draft. Most mocks people bow out and its mostly auto draft for the last five rounds. Also, pick different guys with your first pick and see how the rest of the rounds go. Take Calvin Johnson early in the first, or Jimmy Graham, or a QB in the first, go RB RB WR, or RB WR RB, or WR RB QB. Do it all and see what your roster could potentially look like. 

 

Once you can see who is a good shot to be there in each round, pick three or so guys you like at that pick, and do research on those guys, instead of reading a magazine cover to cover. If you find something you don't like, dump that guy and pick another. That way during your draft, odds are one of those three you like are available at your pick. Plus if you are ready with the pick, the guy after you expecting to have an extra couple minute now feels added pressure and he may slip up. Also, rank your three however you want. I like to look at easiest schedule from week 12-16(even though that can change). System they play in. One thing I don't let bother me is bye weeks. Some try to stagger so they only have one guy out each week. If I have four guys out one week and I practically take the loss, I can live with it to have all my stars play for 13-15 weeks rather than be a guy short for six straight weeks.

 

If you can do that for the first seven or eight rounds, then the rest of the draft is guys you just plain like, trusty but not flashy veterans, rookies you want to take a flier on, best player available, teams WR3 you think have upside, back up QB, whatever. That's where I read more to see who people think the sleeper picks are.


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#47 Markus

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 07:04 PM

^Yeah, just do a bunch of mocks to get an idea of where most players are going.  Also, like mentioned above, lets you experiment with taking different players/positions in different rounds and see how the rest of your draft shakes out that way.

 

For the most part works okay though there'll always be that one guy who reaches and kinda mucks things up a little.  That's why you do a fair amount of mocks though so you'll have back up ideas/options.


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#48 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:32 PM

Since talking about it, I did a mock draft. 8th pick in a 10 team league.

Went Jimmy Graham, A.J.Green, Toby Gehrhart, C.J. Spiller, Roddy White, Matt Stafford.

After 6 rounds, WRs were already down to slim pickens. Colston was best available, Wallace, Crabtree, Sammy Watkins. But RBs Ben Tate, Shane Verreen (money in PPR) still out there.

Thinking if thats a trend, I would add a better reciever instead of the Spiller or Gehrhart pick, add Tate or Verreen in the 7th, or 6th and a QB in the 7th

Plus, the way more teams are going to a RB by committee approach. It only means more RBs with a little potential will be available. It also means more RBs that will lose touches and score less points. Jets and Chargers are going committee, totally trashing Ryan Matthews and Chris Johnsons value. Probably only a few RBs id spend a first or second round pick on.
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#49 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 02:34 PM

Sports on Earth: Fantasy Gamers must adjust to NFL's passing explosion

http://www.sportsone...plosion#!bDvKKM



#50 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:28 PM

Done 12 mock drafts where I'm the 8th pick in my 10 team league. Every single time, Jimmy Graham is the BPA at pick #8. Listed at 7th overall on Yahoo. Think it's safe to say I'll land him on draft day? If some one snakes him from me my strategy is blown up. 


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#51 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:31 PM

I tend not to draft QBs or TEs in the first few rounds.  WR and RB production is where your bread gets buttered in fantasy football.  If you don't have suitable depth at either of those positions (especially RB) and you get nailed with an injury or two you're done.


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#52 Markus

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:46 PM

Yeah in all the mock's I've done I'll always pass on Graham.  You can get some good guys later.  Definitely want to do your best to stock up on RB's and WR's early on.

 

Last year in 1 league I picked up Julius Thomas off the waiver wire before week 1, as he went undrafted.  It's easier to find diamonds in the rough from the TE position than it is WR/RB.


Lemme get two claps and a Ric Flair


#53 Markus

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:48 PM

Matthew Berry:  The 2014 Draft Day Manifesto


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#54 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:51 PM

I tend not to draft QBs or TEs in the first few rounds.  WR and RB production is where your bread gets buttered in fantasy football.  If you don't have suitable depth at either of those positions (especially RB) and you get nailed with an injury or two you're done.

I feel like an exception can be made for J. Graham. So often, at least for me, those early RB picks burn me. 

 

For example, my best case scenario looks like this. 

 

Graham - TE

Lynch - RB

Gerhart - RB

V. Jackson - WR

M. Floyd - WR

Crabtree - WR

Romo - QB

Ridley - RB

 

5 times out of 12 I've been able to land this draft. I could live with this draft. Graham and Lynch are studs. Gerhart is supposed to get 300+ touches. Jackson and Floyd the same, decent receivers and the only real options on their teams. Crabtree is a roll of the dice. I'm high on Romo, fantasy wise, with pass happy Linehan calling the shots. Ridley as a flex and backup option I can live with. 


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#55 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:55 PM

What sucks for me is I have two major drafts to prep for. This one where I'm 8th out of 10 teams, and another where I'm 2nd out of 14 teams. Completely different strategy to prep for. 


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#56 Chris B

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 11:18 PM

Graham is essentially a WR. Sure he's listed at TE but he is giving you elite WR points. That said, if you haven't already, I'd experiment a bit and "reach" for your next BPA and see how your team is after drafting that way. Just in case something crazy happens.

 

Perhaps it's just because I loved Forte last year, but it's clearly A-Pete over him if the choice is between the two, right? All the SOS for RBs I've seen shows that MIN has an easy schedule.



#57 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 10:15 AM

So I have two offers on the table in my most competitive league and I was wondering if the BSL Illuminati could give me some advice.

 

This is a 12 team league. I possess the 2nd overall pick and will be taking either Charles or McCoy.  Right now I have two offers:

 

My 2nd and 3rd round picks (overall pick #s 23 and 26) for the 5th overall pick.  With this I would likely take Adrian Peterson or Eddy Lacy and basically shore up my RB stable 5 picks into the draft.  The downside is, I won't get to go again until pick #47 and I won't have any WR, QB or TE addressed.

 

The other offer is my 2nd and 4th round picks (overall pick #s 23 and 47) for the #8 overall pick.  At this point I'd still like to use the selection to get an RB but the drop off is to the Montee Balls (never been given a full workload, plays in a passing offense) and DeMarco Murrays (injury concerns) of the world.  I'm guessing that Calvin Johnson will have already been selected by #8 and I have no interest in Jimmy Graham for various reasons.  So, it would likely be an RB there as well.

 

Or should I just say "no" to both and roll with what I've got?

 

Thanks BSL!


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#58 SportsGuy

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 10:37 AM

I am one that likes a good combo or quality and quantity, especially in football drafts.

 

If you put your eggs in one basket for one guy and that guy gets hurt, you are screwed.

 

I would probably consider the 2nd and 4th for the 8th vs the other one.


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#59 Mackus

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 10:58 AM

I like the 2nd trade a lot more than the first.  If you had the 5th pick, you would almost certainly trade it and the 47th for the 8th and the 26th.

 

I think there is a bit of a drop off in the top tier talent before that 8th pick, though, so I understand why you may not want to do it, but you could probably still get Lacy or Lynch who I think are still studs.  If you aren't targeting Peyton or Megatron at 5 or 8, I really don't think there is a ton of difference between guys like Forte and the guys that should be available at #8 (I don't think Peterson is available even at 5, do you really think he'd drop there? if so, McCoy/Charles and Peterson is ridiculous). 

 

Perhaps you could convince the guy offering the 5th to accept your 4th rounder instead of the 3rd?  Or to include maybe his 4th or 5th rounder?


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#60 SportsGuy

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Posted 19 August 2014 - 11:38 AM

If Eddie Lacy is still around for the 8th pick, I want to be in that league because those people aren't too bright.

 

I would consider Lacy with the FIRST pick this year...I think he could be that good this season.






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