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[BSLChrisStoner]

While it feels like Coach Turgeon’s first season as Head Coach of the University of Maryland just ended, the focus has already turned to what awaits the Terps in year two of Turgeon’s tenure next November. Despite the recent departures of Stoglin, and Parker; optimism continues to grow among fans of the Terrapins.

To help look ahead, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Drew Cannon, for his thoughts.

You can find Cannon’s work with Basketball Prospectus at:
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/

You can find Cannon on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/bballprospectus
http://twitter.com/#!/DrewCannon1

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Cannon for answering a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Some Maryland fans feel Stoglin’s departure could be a case of addition by subtraction. I don’t believe that, but do believe there is plenty for Terps fans to still be excited about as they look ahead.

Terps 2012-13 Roster:
Guards: Faust (Soph) Howard (Jr), Allen (Freshman), Cassell Jr. (Freshman)
Wings: Layman (Freshman)
Bigs: Padgett (Sr), Pankey (Soph), Len (Soph), Cleare (Freshman), Mitchell (Freshman), Dodd (RS)

It appears to me that Maryland’s strength will be the depth (and quality) of the Front Court, and their primary weakness will be the lack of a true PG.

We know NCST is returning a lot, and bringing in a very highly regarded class. FSU has reached the Dance in 4 consecutive seasons. We know that despite their losses, UNC, and Duke will remain formidable. What are your current general thoughts on how you see the top of the ACC? Can MD contend for the league title? If you believe they can not, what do you see as the primary limiting factor?”

Cannon: “I certainly disagree that the loss of Stoglin would be addition by subtraction. He’s the type of player who can make bad basketball decisions – and thus infuriate fans – but is talented enough that his results are still extraordinary.

I don’t think that Maryland has the same kind of talent that Duke, North Carolina, or NC State does, but they’re certainly capable of contending with that level of opponent. The greatest strength for the Terps is definitely depth – their top eight are good enough to get playing time just about anywhere. Their biggest challenge will be finding a go-to scorer; Nick Faust has that potential but shot just 42/27/62 last season, Shaq Cleare has plenty of ability but, potentially, may not be ready for the speed and athleticism of the college game, and Sam Cassell had great EYBL numbers, but we won’t really know how well those translate for a few years. When Stoglin was on the floor, you knew that the Terrapins had a plan to get a quick bucket at any time. This year, that isn’t the case – at least not yet.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Alex Len has to improve his strength, and his hands; but his skills jump out at you. He can run, and get off the floor. He is a shot-blocking presence, capable of finishing strongly, and he can knock down shots from 15 feet. NBADraft.net has Len currently showing in the Top 10 of their 2013 NBA Mock Draft. Do you see the 7’1 Ukrainian blowing-up to that extreme this coming year?”

Cannon: “Len’s potential is undeniable. He’ll be a truly dangerous shot-blocker and rebounder in 2013, although I’m not sure he’s ready to be a featured scorer. If he is indeed drafted that highly (which I would consider unlikely), it will still be based largely on potential.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “At the start of last year (and again later in the year when Howard was again forced out of action) Faust was forced to play out of position at the PG. That probably influenced his offensive production earlier in the year. As the season was ending, Faust was showing superior all-around skills. He was getting to the rim with ease. His outside shooting improved as his confidence grew. He was using his length to disrupt on defense, and play the passing lanes. Similarly to how we expected Stoglin to go from an 11 ppg scorer to a high-teens scorer after Jordan Williams left the program, we expect Faust to make a significant jump now that Stoglin has left. I’m thinking 16-17 ppg, and the all-around capabilities of finishing the year on one of the all-conference teams. Agree, or disagree with that? Your thoughts on Faust?”

Cannon: “Faust last year, per game, scored nine points in 28 minutes, while Stoglin as a freshman scored 11 points in 22 minutes. To reach the 16-17 point range you mentioned, Stoglin wouldn’t have even needed to improve with his playing time expanded to 33 minutes per game last season. Faust really struggled to put the ball in the basket last year (his effective field goal percentage was among the lowest in the conference), and he ran into some turnover problems. I think Faust will be considerably more effective next season, but expectations should probably be tempered.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Incoming Freshman Seth Allen, and Sam Cassell Jr. are described more as combo guards whose primary attributes are filling it-up vs. true PG’s. The closest thing to a true PG on the roster is Howard. After a promising Freshman season, it was a rough Sophomore campaign for Howard. He missed the initial 9 games with a stress-fracture in his foot. When he came back, his shooting % and assists per minute dropped significantly from the prior year, and his turnovers increased. After 14 games played, he was lost for the year with an ACL injury. As a Freshman, he had strong interior passing, and showed an ability to knock down open 3′s. Is his production this coming year the biggest question facing MD?”

Cannon: “Like I said earlier, I’d say the biggest question facing Maryland is lack of a go-to scorer. Howard’s not the best returning point guard in the conference, but I think a lot of his issues had more to do with injury and small sample size than deteriorating ability. There are certainly teams in the ACC worse off at the point guard position.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Cleare and Mitchell are two well regarded recruits, who are going to add immediate depth and strength to the Front-court. Both should help on the boards. Pankey frustrated me at-times with his lack of consistency, but for a guy that had basically not played for two years; I was pleased overall by what he provided. He certainly had a better offensive game (12 games with at-least 6 points) than I anticipated. He also had 17 games with at-least 5 boards. How do you see the Terps Front-court depth comparing to the rest of the ACC?”

Cannon: “In terms of depth, it’s unlikely that anyone else in the conference has four bigs as capable as Padgett, Pankey, Cleare, and Len. I expect Cleare to be a major contributor right off the bat – big men of his size usually have less trouble with the transition (although this isn’t always the case). Pankey and Padgett should show steady improvement, and Len should be a force defensively and an effective role player offensively. I’m not sure anyone on that list is All-ACC material, but all four can hold their own in the conference.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Perhaps the primary benefactor of Stoglin’s departure is Jake Layman. Layman figured to get regular minutes anyway, but I believe is now likely to start at the 3. In an interview with Rival’s Eric Bossi, Bossi told us, “Right now, I don’t know that he’s a pure wing and would classify him as more of a face-up four man or combo forward.” In an interview with Kellon Hassenstab from Hoopniks, Hassenstab concurred stating, “I think it is accurate to say that Layman’s skill-set is best suited to play the four position, but with the interior players that coach Mark Turgeon has accumulated, it appears that Layman will be given every opportunity to earn minutes as a wing forward. I don’t think there’s any reason that Layman can’t be a hybrid wing forward that exploits match-ups to Maryland’s advantage.” I think for MD’s roster to take off, Layman is going to have to provide some regular scoring, and show he can defend on the wing. Do you see this similarly?”

Cannon: “Without Layman, Maryland would have really struggled to guard teams with a legitimate small forward. Luckily, he’s an excellent defensive player who gets his hands on everything, and they won’t have to worry about that previously dangerous hole next season. Layman isn’t the type to take low-percentage shots, so it’s doubtful that he’ll be a problem on the offensive end. That said, it might not be realistic to expect buckets of points from him right away.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Maryland recently landed Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz. The 6’9 PF, was a Top 60 player in the Class of 2010, and will be eligible for the 2013-14 season. We know Smotrycz is known as a step-back 3 point shooting big. Your thoughts on him?”

Cannon: “Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway got the headlines for Michigan’s 2012 season, but Smotrycz had a really, really nice sophomore campaign. He’s a smart player, a good shooter, and a strong rebounder. What’s not to like?”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Terps will begin next season facing defending National Champion Kentucky. With the Wildcats departures to the NBA, their likely starting 5 will be Sophomores Ryan Harrow and Kyle Wiltjer, with Freshmen Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress and Nerlens Noel. Will Kentucky enter next year in the Top 5?”

Cannon: “Yes.”

[BSLMikeLowe]

Assuming Len returns, that's the deepest front court I've seen in College Park since the championship team. Unfortunately, while next season's version might have more raw talent, there is a huge gap in experience between them and the 2001-02 team. And obviously, there are no Juan Dixon's or Steve Blake's coming back either to help bring some balance.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Assuming Len returns, that's the deepest front court I've seen in College Park since the championship team. Unfortunately, while next season's version might have more raw talent, there is a huge gap in experience between them and the 2001-02 team. And obviously, there are no Juan Dixon's or Steve Blake's coming back either to help bring some balance.

Nope, no Dixon's or Blake's... or obviously Stoglin's, but if Howard can get back to what he was as a Freshman (not perfect, but productive), I still think the Terps can be very interesting this coming year.