Matt Wieters
#1
Posted 20 December 2011 - 11:16 PM
Good overview of Wieters from Heath with Dempsey's Army.
As Heath mentioned, after previously struggling against LHP, Wieters wore out lefties in ’11. Conversely, his numbers against RHP dropped. Wieters finished strong offensively, with a .951 OPS in August, and a .867 OPS in September. His Isolated Power has increased from .128 last year, to .188 in '11. Among Catchers, Wieters was tied for 2nd overall with Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 4.3. His wOBA was .339. He became one of the best Catchers in the game. The O’s need him to produce offensively over a full year like he did during April, August, and September this coming year. Might need additional rest during the Summer. Not sure Teagarden is going to help in that regard.
#2
Posted 21 December 2011 - 02:38 AM
That being said, I think Wieters has a real shot to break out with the bat in '12, and if he does, the price on a potential extension would go wayyyy north of Markakis' $66 million contract. I doubt Wieters and the Boras Corp. would be interested in a reasonable extension at this time, but if I'm Duke, I'm exploring the possibilities of an extension after I'm done with my off-season additions. That would probably mean after Jan. 1.
And I know you're using the Fangraphs WAR, but some site (Beyond the Box Score? I can't find the link) did a recalculation of Fangraphs' catcher WAR using more detailed defensive metrics for catchers and if I remember correctly, Wieters had a 5.1 WAR. I do wonder how sustainable elite defensive performance from a catcher is -- I honestly don't know.
#3
Posted 21 December 2011 - 02:49 AM
Wieters checks in with a 5.2 WAR -- third best among catchers -- after a more detailed look at defensive runs saved. Fangraphs WAR just looks at runs saved via throwing out base stealers, whereas the Hardball Times added in blocking pitches and framing pitches, both areas in which Wieters was above average.
#4
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:31 PM
I think people tend to overrate the value of defense for a catcher. Not that its not important but I am not sure it should be put on the pedestal that many put it on.
He ended the year great last year...What can he do for an encore? If he goes back to being a 720 OPS catcher with good defense, we basically have a Yadier Molina type guy...Certainly valuable and certainly someone you want on your team, but not the guy you thought you drafted and paid a record bonus to.
#5
Posted 21 December 2011 - 06:10 PM
I just think now that hes established himself as a defensive presence he'll be able to focus on his hitting and be the guy we drafted him to be.
#6
Posted 30 January 2012 - 07:30 PM
Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. He is under long-term team control (through ’15). Many believe that his Agent (Scott Boras) would not allow Wieters to sign an extension prior to reaching FA. As a Catcher, I would think Wieters would have to seriously consider an extension offer now. He potentially gives up some money in the first year or two of what would be his FA, for the piece of-mind of some additional guaranteed dollars over the next four years he will be behind the plate. Are the O’s open to discussing an extension now?”
Duquette: “As with Adam, Matt is a big part of our up the middle strength and an impact player on both sides of the ball. He is a very good player, and may just be scratching the surface. We hope he is an Oriole for a long time.”
Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”
Jason Parks / Baseball Prospectus: “I’ve always been a big fan of Wieters, even when he was struggling when he first reached the majors. He made the necessary adjustments and that is the name of the game. If I were starting a team, Wieters would be among the few catchers I would consider. He’s a player to build around.”
David Schoenfield / ESPN: “Considering the injury issues right now with Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, if I’m starting a team it comes down to Wieters, Alex Avila or Carlos Santana, and I’m inclined to give the very slight edge to Wieters based on his defensive edge over the other two.”
DJ Short / NBC Sports Hardball Talk: “If I was building a team to win right now, it would be Yadier Molina. If I wanted a catcher I could have for the next several years, it would be Wieters. I think he’s quietly becoming one of the best all-around players in the American League.”
Dan Szymborski / ESPN / Baseball Think Factory: “Starting a team, if money’s a consideration, I probably wouldn’t take anyone else before Wieters. He’s not at the level of all the jokes made after his signing, of course, but he’s the most well-rounded of the young catchers and has very few weaknesses in his game. Santana’s a better hitter, but not as good a defensive player, Posey has injury concerns in the back of his head and McCann’s a little older and would be more expensive.”
Jonathan Mitchell / ESPN Sweet Spot / MLB Dirt:“Man, that is a tough question. If money is not an object it would be hard to pass on Brian McCann. If current contracts are in place I would probably take Carlos Santana first and wrestle between Wieters, Buster Posey, and Alex Avila.”
Bob Harkins / NBC Sports Hardball Talk: “Brian McCann, maybe Carlos Santana – though he’s not in Wieters’ class defensively. Yadier Molina is a great defensive catcher, but four years older. Alex Avila strikes out too much, and I’m not convinced Joe Mauer will be an impact player behind the plate moving forward. That’s about it.”
Matt Klaassen / FanGraphs: “Matt Treanor, duh! But seriously, I think it was before or early in the season I wrote for one of these that Wieters had become underrated. Catcher defense is still a work in progress for sabermetrics, but many of the more recent developments and my own simple metric (http://www.beyondthe... ... e-rankings) had him as the best or one of the best defensive catchers in the league, and his offense is good for the position. I suppose I would take Buster Posey or Carlos Santana before Wieters (if Jesus Montero counts, him, too). Wieters is superior defensively to those players (although Posey wasn’t bad before he got hurt), but those others are better offensively, and if they have to move off the position, their bats would still be good, whereas Wieters bat would be below-average at any other position.”
David Pinto / Baseball Musings: “The two I would take were both injured in 2011, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey. Brian McCann is also very good.”
Gary Armida / Baseball Digest: “Great question. I’ve never wavered on my support of Wieters’ talent. I think he gets even better this year. When you factor in defense, there aren’t many that I take ahead of him. I’d still take Brian McCann, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, and Buster Posey, if he comes back healthy. Wieters is right there in that group.”
#7
Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:33 AM
The Orioles need him to be a more consistent offensive force.
I think people tend to overrate the value of defense for a catcher. Not that its not important but I am not sure it should be put on the pedestal that many put it on.
He ended the year great last year...What can he do for an encore? If he goes back to being a 720 OPS catcher with good defense, we basically have a Yadier Molina type guy...Certainly valuable and certainly someone you want on your team, but not the guy you thought you drafted and paid a record bonus to.
I have to disagree. Catcher defense is really a huge part of a game. A great example to look at it is Brian Ward down in Frederick this season.
From Melewki's blog:
"Not only did Ward show fine defensive skills and a strong arm, but his game calling drew raves and a few pitchers like Jake Pettit pitched much better with Frederick than they had in Delmarva and Ward got some credit for that from the Keys' coaching staff.
Also, there is this stat: Ward threw out 52.6 percent of base stealers last season, getting 50 of 95. That is a great percentage in any league. The Keys pitchers gave him a chance and he got it done."
But Wieters made the pitchers jobs that much easier last year (and they still were terrible, which goes to show how much more work THE PITCHERS need to do!)
Matt Wieters was 40% at throwing out base-runners and they only attempted 92 SB.
Alex Avila was 32% at throwing out base-runners in 125 SB attempts.
Brian McCann was 21% at throwing out base-runners in 133 SB attempts
Avila and Wieters caught practically the same amount of innings, but Wieters was CLEARLY more efficient in that area. McCann actually caught about 7 games less, and was well below them defensively (he made up with it hitting thouh)
Not to mention Wieters only had 1 passed ball the entire year, compared to Avila and McCann who had 7.
Avila and McCann were two of the best catchers in baseball this year. But it shows how good Wieters really was defensively.
I just don't think you can say that Catchers defense is overrated. I personally think it is underrated.
#8
Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:02 PM
Well I hear Linda Ronstadt is looking for a guitar player.
#9
Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:06 PM
As far as him getting more rest this year, I would think with Betemit DHing vs righties, Wieters should get a decent amount of DH plate appearances against lefties assuming he's hitting well enough to justify it.
#10
Posted 01 February 2012 - 02:07 PM
825-850 OPS would be a nice output for him. Anything under 800 and I'll be at least a little bit disappointed with his offense.
I feel the same about Jones' offense, although I expect Jones' to be more AVG and SLG heavy than Wieters, who will make up the difference with additional walks this season.
#11
Posted 01 February 2012 - 10:47 PM
I'm expecting big things from Wieters this season. Continued excellence behind the plate and his development into a good to very good hitter. Not a good to very good hitting catcher, but good for anyone.
825-850 OPS would be a nice output for him. Anything under 800 and I'll be at least a little bit disappointed with his offense.
I feel the same about Jones' offense, although I expect Jones' to be more AVG and SLG heavy than Wieters, who will make up the difference with additional walks this season.
A 113 OPS+ suggests he was a good hitter for anyone last year.
#12
Posted 02 February 2012 - 10:25 AM
I suppose I haven't mentally adjusted my perceived benchmarks yet for the depressed offense of the last two seasons. On the other hand, I still don't really expect the AL average OPS to be .730-.735 again this year. I'd be more inclined to believe it'll be back into that .750 range, in which case Wieters .778 would still be above average as a 107 or so, but not really to a majorly impactful level (without taking position into account).A 113 OPS+ suggests he was a good hitter for anyone last year.
I'm really hoping for .825-.850, and I'll be a bit disappointed with anything less than .800, even if the league stays down in the .730s. Perhaps that's a bit lofty of expectations, but I don't think it's unreasonable.
#13
Posted 02 February 2012 - 11:05 AM
Wieters was one the few bright spots for the Orioles this year. While he may have not been "terrific" with the bat, he still proved that he is capable of becoming a very good hitter in this league for a long time. I compared Wieters stats to the other qualifying catchers. I also threw in some defensive stats since we are indeed talking about catchers and defense is Wieters' strength.
Catcher had 9 Qualifying players in 2011 (Obviously there were many catchers close, but only 9 qualified)
*Also take into account that Mauer and Posey were injured most of the year
*Some Catchers (Carlos Santana) had more plate appearances due to playing another position
Some more defensive notes:
Wieters ranked 1st in the entire league with 14 DRS (Total Defensive Runs Saved)
He also ranked 1st with 5 RSB (Stolen Based Runs Saved)
Overall, I would say that Wieters was very satisfying from a Catchers standpoint last season. The defense was top tier, and the hitting aspect of his game is only going to get better.
One final fun note:
Bill James projection on Wieters in 2012: .281AVG/.353OBP/.468SLG/.304BABIP/.357wOBA
I would gladly take that!
#14
Posted 02 February 2012 - 01:41 PM
I suppose I haven't mentally adjusted my perceived benchmarks yet for the depressed offense of the last two seasons. On the other hand, I still don't really expect the AL average OPS to be .730-.735 again this year. I'd be more inclined to believe it'll be back into that .750 range, in which case Wieters .778 would still be above average as a 107 or so, but not really to a majorly impactful level (without taking position into account).A 113 OPS+ suggests he was a good hitter for anyone last year.
I'm really hoping for .825-.850, and I'll be a bit disappointed with anything less than .800, even if the league stays down in the .730s. Perhaps that's a bit lofty of expectations, but I don't think it's unreasonable.
If the league average OPS jumps 15- 20 points they why wouldn't you expect Wieters' OPS to jump a comparable amount? That would put him at .793-.798
Well I hear Linda Ronstadt is looking for a guitar player.
#15
Posted 02 February 2012 - 05:25 PM
#16
Posted 03 February 2012 - 10:28 PM
The Orioles need him to be a more consistent offensive force.
I think people tend to overrate the value of defense for a catcher. Not that its not important but I am not sure it should be put on the pedestal that many put it on.
He ended the year great last year...What can he do for an encore? If he goes back to being a 720 OPS catcher with good defense, we basically have a Yadier Molina type guy...Certainly valuable and certainly someone you want on your team, but not the guy you thought you drafted and paid a record bonus to.
I have to disagree. Catcher defense is really a huge part of a game. A great example to look at it is Brian Ward down in Frederick this season.
From Melewki's blog:"Not only did Ward show fine defensive skills and a strong arm, but his game calling drew raves and a few pitchers like Jake Pettit pitched much better with Frederick than they had in Delmarva and Ward got some credit for that from the Keys' coaching staff.
Also, there is this stat: Ward threw out 52.6 percent of base stealers last season, getting 50 of 95. That is a great percentage in any league. The Keys pitchers gave him a chance and he got it done."
But Wieters made the pitchers jobs that much easier last year (and they still were terrible, which goes to show how much more work THE PITCHERS need to do!)
Matt Wieters was 40% at throwing out base-runners and they only attempted 92 SB.
Alex Avila was 32% at throwing out base-runners in 125 SB attempts.
Brian McCann was 21% at throwing out base-runners in 133 SB attempts
Avila and Wieters caught practically the same amount of innings, but Wieters was CLEARLY more efficient in that area. McCann actually caught about 7 games less, and was well below them defensively (he made up with it hitting thouh)
Not to mention Wieters only had 1 passed ball the entire year, compared to Avila and McCann who had 7.
Avila and McCann were two of the best catchers in baseball this year. But it shows how good Wieters really was defensively.
I just don't think you can say that Catchers defense is overrated. I personally think it is underrated.
Why does Buck want the pitchers to be quicker to the plate if his catcher has such a great arm?
How many runs(and then wins) do you think the best to worst catcher is in terms of blocking balls in the dirt? For first baseman, in terms of scoops, the difference between the best and worst is somewhere in the .5-1 win area.
Its not that its not important its just that the important stuff isn't really measurable(call a good game, good repoire with pitchers, know the hitters, etc...), so its tough to say how important it really is and how much better one is vs another.
Last year, Buck would complain about how Fox called a game and thought it hurt the staff in some games(i remember one Arietta game in particular). However, what about all the horribly pitched games Wieters caught? Was that just bad luck?
The Orioles didn't draft Wieters to be Yadier Molina plus 40 points of OPS. They drafted him to be a cornerstone, franchise player. They need him to hit a lot more than he has...Just being a GG defensive catcher with a 750 OPS isn't good enough for what this team needs...He is, of course, a very valuable asset as he is right now but the Orioles need him to be more than that.
#17
Posted 10 February 2012 - 08:14 AM
#18
Posted 10 February 2012 - 10:28 AM
Yea but you have to be careful what you offer him.Whether you think Wieters would be willing to extend now or not, do you think the O's should be providing an offer?
PECOTA is predicting a 733ish OPS for him this year. I think that's low but based on what he has done, its easy to see why they came up with that.
He is also a very big guy and you just wonder how the wear and tear on his body will be as he gets older and, as of right now, his bat doesn't play well in any other position that he is capable of playing.
I would like to sign him to a deal where you can eat up his arb years, 1 year of free agency and have an option for a second year of free agency.
If he isn't open to that and he has a big first half this year, I start looking to see what other teams will give up for him in a trade.
#19
Posted 10 February 2012 - 10:37 AM
I don't see that as being likely, though.
I would not lock him up only through arbitration. I'd rather pay big one a year-to-year basis if he explodes than be stuck with a $4M, $7M, $10M type contract over his 3 arb years if he either doesn't develop as a hitter or, more likely, suffers a major injury.
#20
Posted 10 February 2012 - 10:41 AM
Because while the entirety of MLB would jump on average, that doesn't imply that each player jumps up the average. Some will jump more, some less, some will go down. It's like the Pecota and other projections. They are quite accurate for large groups, but wildly inaccurate for each individual player. We're talking about one individual player here, so what the league does as a whole isn't extremely relevant.If the league average OPS jumps 15- 20 points they why wouldn't you expect Wieters' OPS to jump a comparable amount? That would put him at .793-.798
If Wieters doesn't reach an .800 OPS this season, I'll consider it a bit of a disappointment, and I'd like to see him up in the .825-.850 range. Those benchmarks are pretty much independent of the league environment for me, the only real environment-adjusting I'm doing are where he would fall within that .825-.850 window, but I'm keeping that firm floor at .800 being the break-even point between good enough and (slightly) disappointing.
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