101 replies to this topic

[GaryArmida]

BSL: Roundtable on Nelson Cruz Signing:
http://baltimorespor...n-cruz-edition/

[LanceRinker]

Cruz is pretty one-dimensional as a player but we should get at least a .260 average and .310ish OBP out of him while we enjoy 25 to 30 home runs. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

CSN Baltimore: Cruz on first Orioles spring: "It's been a blast."
http://www.csnbaltim...-its-been-blast

[Icterus galbula]

"@Britt_Ghiroli: Cruz called his reception today special: "I think I made the right call to come and be part of this organization, be part of this town.""

[Russ]

Just keep hitting dingers, Nelson, and we will get along just fine.

[Dr. FLK]

"@Britt_Ghiroli: Cruz called his reception today special: "I think I made the right call to come and be part of this organization, be part of this town.""

This quote makes me laugh.  What did we expect him to say after his first game on a new team?  "I'm really starting to second guess my decision to play here.  I wonder if there's any way I can void this deal and go back to Texas."

[BSLChrisStoner]

Big 3 run shot for Cruz tonight.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Into the 7th tonight... Cruz is 2 for 4, with 2 homers, and 5 rbi. 1 of the homers being a Grand Slam to give the O's the lead.

Currently has 6 hr's and 21 rbi for the season. Slugging % .603.

[Adam Wolff]

Not a good overall series for Cruz, but did hit his 7th HR today against KC.

 

It's scary to think where the offense would be right now if he hadn't been brought in.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: Should the O's rush to extend Cruz?

http://camdendepot.b...end-nelson.html

[Mackus]

I'm perfectly content with letting him play out the year and then make a qualifying offer.  Same with Hardy.

 

Assuming typical seasons from both, I'd be perfectly happy with either back on a 1/$15M type deal, if they accept.  I'm not very interested in a 3/$36M - 4/$60M range deal for either, but would also happily take the comp pick for either if they get that type of deal elsewhere.

 

I think we're in a very enviable position with both of those guys, and wouldn't even remotely consider an extension for either unless the prices are much lower than I think it would take to keep them from hitting the market.  I think a below-market deal is possible with JJ, but not with Cruz.  He'll wanna cash in after taking his lumps, financially, this season.

[mweb08]

Agree with Mack. Just let the season play out and offer then qualifying picks assuming they don't have injury or performance issues that make that undesirable.

[PatrickDougherty]

I'm perfectly content with letting him play out the year and then make a qualifying offer.  Same with Hardy.

 

Assuming typical seasons from both, I'd be perfectly happy with either back on a 1/$15M type deal, if they accept.  I'm not very interested in a 3/$36M - 4/$60M range deal for either, but would also happily take the comp pick for either if they get that type of deal elsewhere.

 

I think we're in a very enviable position with both of those guys, and wouldn't even remotely consider an extension for either unless the prices are much lower than I think it would take to keep them from hitting the market.  I think a below-market deal is possible with JJ, but not with Cruz.  He'll wanna cash in after taking his lumps, financially, this season.

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing about QOs, but Cruz couldn't get QO money this year after declining the QO. Hardy is currently making less than $8M. Particularly in Hardy's case, I'm concerned about making a QO and expecting to get FA compensation when it's declined, ending up on a deal worth twice as much as his current contract, and having a player who can't hit for average or take a walk at age 32.

 

Same with Cruz - I like him for $8M, but not as much for $15M.

[Russ]

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing about QOs, but Cruz couldn't get QO money this year after declining the QO. Hardy is currently making less than $8M. Particularly in Hardy's case, I'm concerned about making a QO and expecting to get FA compensation when it's declined, ending up on a deal worth twice as much as his current contract, and having a player who can't hit for average or take a walk at age 32.

 

Same with Cruz - I like him for $8M, but not as much for $15M.

It's going to be interesting next offseason after seeing what happened to Stephen Drew and Morales.  The QO is a substantial offer (as it was designed to be, I guess) and we might start seeing fewer players declining.

[Mackus]

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing about QOs, but Cruz couldn't get QO money this year after declining the QO. Hardy is currently making less than $8M. Particularly in Hardy's case, I'm concerned about making a QO and expecting to get FA compensation when it's declined, ending up on a deal worth twice as much as his current contract, and having a player who can't hit for average or take a walk at age 32.

 

Same with Cruz - I like him for $8M, but not as much for $15M.

 

The annual value is not super important.  It's probably a little more than either is worth, but only a little more.  The benefit is it's just a 1-year commitment.  That's why you make the offer, and that's why both likely turn it down.  Nothing wrong at all with having either guy back on a 1/$15M type deal, that's very reasonable money for the value each provides.  FA prices are going up and up and up, and not only do you have to pay those big salaries, you have to commit multiple years. 

 

Paying a little more for a shorter deal greatly reduces risk.  I think we'd be making a huge mistake by not offering arbitration to either of these guys, barring disastrous production the rest of the way.

[mweb08]

I'm perfectly content with letting him play out the year and then make a qualifying offer.  Same with Hardy.
 
Assuming typical seasons from both, I'd be perfectly happy with either back on a 1/$15M type deal, if they accept.  I'm not very interested in a 3/$36M - 4/$60M range deal for either, but would also happily take the comp pick for either if they get that type of deal elsewhere.
 
I think we're in a very enviable position with both of those guys, and wouldn't even remotely consider an extension for either unless the prices are much lower than I think it would take to keep them from hitting the market.  I think a below-market deal is possible with JJ, but not with Cruz.  He'll wanna cash in after taking his lumps, financially, this season.

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing about QOs, but Cruz couldn't get QO money this year after declining the QO. Hardy is currently making less than $8M. Particularly in Hardy's case, I'm concerned about making a QO and expecting to get FA compensation when it's declined, ending up on a deal worth twice as much as his current contract, and having a player who can't hit for average or take a walk at age 32.
 
Same with Cruz - I like him for $8M, but not as much for $15M.

1/15 is fine for either player if they have good years this season. Not a lot of risk there, they don't need to be that good to technically be worth it, and they'd prevent holes from opening up which money and/or assets would need to be used to fill.

[Matt_P]

Cruz was hurt last year due to the whole steroids issue. I'm reminded of Adrian Beltre. He struggled in Seattle and had to accept a one year deal with the Red Sox. Then he had a strong year in Boston and turned that into a long term deal. As the season goes on the question about the QO will take care of itself.  

 

I don't offer Cruz an extension after a month unless he's willing to sign for 2 years and 18 million  or 3 years and 25 million. And even that may be a bit rich for my blood. 

[DJ MC]

Ah, another classic case of Betteridge's Law.

 

Let him play out the year, offer the QO, let him decline, and either take the draft pick or resign him for less later if the market isn't there.

 

I'm glad he's playing well, but I didn't want him for multiple years all along. He's the kind of guy that will fall off pretty quick when he goes.

[dude]

The annual value is not super important.  It's probably a little more than either is worth, but only a little more.  The benefit is it's just a 1-year commitment.  That's why you make the offer, and that's why both likely turn it down.  Nothing wrong at all with having either guy back on a 1/$15M type deal, that's very reasonable money for the value each provides.  FA prices are going up and up and up, and not only do you have to pay those big salaries, you have to commit multiple years. 

 

Paying a little more for a shorter deal greatly reduces risk.  I think we'd be making a huge mistake by not offering arbitration to either of these guys, barring disastrous production the rest of the way.

 

A) given a number of factors, both Hardy and Cruz likely ACCEPT a QO.  There's almost no doubt about it at this point after watching the last 2 offseasons and the potential market for their services.

 

B ) If you want them at 15M.....ok.....but the larger issue you have is I seriously doubt the Orioles have ushered in a new era of 'going for it' with the pocketbook.

 

O's are still likely at or below 100M and you've significantly limited any opportunity to improve the roster.

 

Quick look right now is > 115M (Hardy and Cruz accept QO) with Hunter, Matusz, Norris and Patton.

[SportsGuy]

They shouldn't even consider this as an option right now.