802 replies to this topic

[Old Man]

There were several things the O's could have done.

 

1. Extend him early on.

2. Extend him toward the end.

3. Trade him early on.

4. Trade him toward the end.

5. Just hold on and let him walk.

 

There were pros and cons to 1, 2, and 3. 4 and 5 weren't much different and bound to be shitty outcomes. They chose one of the shitty outcome approaches. Yes 4 is better than 5. But not by much.

I think why I am bitter.

 

The organization lied to the fans all along.

 

We have plenty of money left, to extend Manny, blah blah blah.

 

They never had any intention of keeping him, barely talked to his agent. Granted thats hearsay and I cant prove its truth or not true.

 

Guys like Manny with his skillset dont grow on trees and they dont happen too often in a franchise history.

 

Yes, nobody is worth that insane amount of money, yet, you gave it out to others.

 

You either do it, or you just fold up shop and go home, if you dont want to compete.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Just got my Machado Padres jersey in the mail yesterday.

Which one did you go with?

[Old Man]

I was at the fake throw game as well. Also was there last year for his HR to the second deck.

When I first read fake throw. 

 

It brought back bitter memories of the 96 ALCS game with the Stankees and Todd Zeile faking the throw to first and throwing the ball into the dirt and it bounces in the air and away from him, costing the Orioles the game.

 

I was there, my first and only playoff game that I managed to get tickets to and was in attendance live.

 

Okay, let me restate that, the only game that I got tickets too, that was actually held. The others that I was able to snatch onto, was games never played.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

No secret I was in option 3 camp. But I was fine when DD kept him. Where he screwed up IMO was not going all in. Everybody knew the O's were ok and maybe even a playoff contender. But they had known big holes and he made no attempt to improve on them.

[Old Man]

No secret I was in option 3 camp. But I was fine when DD kept him. Where he screwed up IMO was not going all in. Everybody knew the O's were ok and maybe even a playoff contender. But they had known big holes and he made no attempt to improve on them.

I think at some point DD had lost faith with Peter after Toronto kicked his tires, and then he got handcuffs put on him, about what he was allowed to do as GM. I cant prove anything of this, but I believe it makes logical sense, given the circumstances and putting them all together.

[Mike in STL]

Did Diaz quit?

I hated having to trade him, and it wasn't a particularly good trade, but still a better haul then letting him walk.

He should've been signed years before we got to 2018. Bigger fail than the Davis contract, IMO.

 

I mean yeah, exaggeration on my part. 

 

Diaz can't get past AA since the trade, he was in AA with the Dodgers. 4 years later...I hope he bought a house in Bowie instead of rented. 

 

Bannon sucked in the AFL in 2019. So among his prospect peers, he's at the bottom and is 25 years old now. 

 

Kremer is below replacement level as an MLB pitcher and the stat cast stuff makes it look like its not just a slump. He's just not good. In fact, Elias has turned bad pitchers into decent ones by pitching backwards. He threw fastballs only 39% of the time in 4 games in 2020. In 4 games in 2021 that number is up to 55%, and his fastball isn't electric at all, between 91-93. And he doesn't have a change up to go with it. He throws it 4% of the time, and the heat maps suggest it is rarely ever a strike. I don't expect much a future with him. 

 

Pop, rule 5, sucking in Miami. 

 

Valera was seemingly here one day then gone the next. 

 

So I guess if we let Manny walk, the difference is someone else being an O's below replacement level pitcher, which we have oodles of. 

 

The answer of course was to pay him, the earlier the better. But the trade route, the trade should have involved Walker Buehler trade talks without him in it should have been a non-starter. 

[Mackus]

Diaz can't get past AA since the trade, he was in AA with the Dodgers. 4 years later...I hope he bought a house in Bowie instead of rented. 

 

Seems a little unfair.  He struggled in 2018 after the trade, played well in 2019 especially in the 2nd half.  Do you think he goes to AA if there had been any minor league baseball being played since 2019 ended?

 

Also he got a $15M bonus from the Dodgers, so I doubt he's sweating the rental market in Bowie too much

[BSLRoseKatz]

I wasn't on the forum around the trade deadline in 2017, but I thought selling at the deadline with Manny as the centerpiece was the right move going forward and 1.5 years of control instead of 0.5 control would've provided a better return most likely 

[Old Man]

I wasn't on the forum around the trade deadline in 2017, but I thought selling at the deadline with Manny as the centerpiece was the right move going forward and 1.5 years of control instead of 0.5 control would've provided a better return most likely 

Some posters on OH was trying to blow up the 2012 squad and rebuild the team then.

[Mike in STL]

Seems a little unfair.  He struggled in 2018 after the trade, played well in 2019 especially in the 2nd half.  Do you think he goes to AA if there had been any minor league baseball being played since 2019 ended?

 

Also he got a $15M bonus from the Dodgers, so I doubt he's sweating the rental market in Bowie too much

I don't know. It's anyone's best guess where he would have played last year. Where is he going to play this year? He's not on the Norfolk Tides roster on their site, and the Baysox site has five players on their roster.  Good look affiliates. Games only start 5 days from now. 

[Old Man]

I don't know. It's anyone's best guess where he would have played last year. Where is he going to play this year? He's not on the Norfolk Tides roster on their site, and the Baysox site has five players on their roster.  Good look affiliates. Games only start 5 days from now. 

Can you image being a minor league player the past 2 seasons, talk about COVID wrecking hell into any career chances as the biological clock is ticking.

[Mackus]

I don't know. It's anyone's best guess where he would have played last year. Where is he going to play this year? He's not on the Norfolk Tides roster on their site, and the Baysox site has five players on their roster.  Good look affiliates. Games only start 5 days from now. 

 

I think we all know where he plays last year if there is a season and where he's going to start this season.

 

Here are the comp picks from 2019 (with their MLB.com team top-30 rankings in parens), anyone you'd trade Diaz and Kremer for?

 

Brennan Malone (NR)
Drey Jameson (23)
Kameron Misner (15)
JJ Goss (15)
Sammy Siani (19)
T.J. Sikkema (16)
Matt Wallner (13)
Seth Johnson (16)
Davis Wendzel (8)

 

None of them have appeared on any top-100 lists that BB-ref tracks (MLB, BA, BP).  Of course the Orioles wouldn't have necessarily taken one of these guys.  You can argue for any 2nd round pick if you like, including Gunnar Henderson who we took at #41.  And the same argument for Diaz applies to all of these guys, they haven't had much opportunity to play and rise or fall in the rankings.  Still, I'd stick with Diaz and Kremer without much hesitation.

[Mike in STL]

Come on, I think we all know where he plays last year if there is a season and where he's going to start this season.

 

Here are the comp picks from 2019 (with their MLB.com team top-30 rankings in parens), anyone you'd trade Diaz and Kremer for?

 

Brennan Malone (NR)
Drey Jameson (23)
Kameron Misner (15)
JJ Goss (15)
Sammy Siani (19)
T.J. Sikkema (16)
Matt Wallner (13)
Seth Johnson (16)
Davis Wendzel (8)

 

None of them have appeared on any top-100 lists that BB-ref tracks (MLB, BA, BP).  Of course the Orioles wouldn't have necessarily taken one of these guys.  You can argue for any 2nd round pick if you like, including Gunnar Henderson who we took at #41.  And the same argument for Diaz applies to all of these guys, they haven't had much opportunity to play and rise or fall in the rankings.  Still, I'd stick with Diaz and Kremer without much hesitation.

Thats funny cause Diaz in 2019 was anywhere fro #30 to #60 in the MLB prospect rankings depending on the publication. But today he's not on any lists. He absolutely fell down the rankings. Maybe others stuck on the rankings and didn't rise or fall because they are, I don't know, good? 

 

That list and where they rank in their system means nothing. Ryan McKenna is 15th in the Orioles system and is in the big leagues. Does just getting to the big leagues mean anything? No. You have to perform. Kremer, is not. And it's not bad luck either. 

 

Diaz. I understand he hasn't gotten the playing time we hoped he would have by now. 

 

When you trade the kind of star Machado is to a team you expect prospects in return who can help the big league club, and the centerpiece to be an All-Star one day. 

 

For Erik Bedard we got an All-Star/Gold glover/face of the franchise in Jones, and a role player who was also an All-Star (bonus) in Sherrill, and an All-Star/Ace (for us anyway) on winning teams in Tillman. Tillman was 19, took a little longer to be "that guy". Diaz is 24. Kremer is 25. Bannon is 25. Take a year away for Covid, these guys are of the age they should be beating down the door of the bigs. Diaz striking out 11 times in 23 ABs in spring training isn't exciting anyone. 

 

The minimum we should have gotten from the Dodgers for Machado was Buehler, and comparing it to Bedard, should have been Buehler and Diaz, and another guy. 

 

If Diaz comps Adam Jones and Kremer comps to Tillman (soon because he's 25 already and Tillman was an All-Star at 25), and Bannon plays decent major league ball for at least a season or two here, then the trade will have been okay. 

 

If Diaz makes it here at age 26 and is just a guy, and Kremer is just around to eat up innings because someone has to, and Bannon...whatever...

 

All I'm saying is the Orioles are giant losers in this trade and there are legit two guys that can change that narrative. One, sucks (Kremer) and the other hasn't moved up a level in some time, even before covid, and has disappeared from the radar on a national scale. DIaz may be 9th in our system, that could be 19th in another. He didn't impress in the spring. This season should reveal where Diaz truly is, if he stays healthy. I hope he beats down the door for a call up. Because this is my team and I want them to do well. 

 

Right now though, it looks like we let Manny walk out the door with nothing in return because 2 of the 5 from the haul never wore the O's uniform in an MLB game. 2 are still in the minors 4 years later. And one has a 0.0 WAR through eight career starts, and a -0.4 WAR in four starts in 2021. So it's like he's not even there, but worse. 

[Mackus]

Bedard had two years of control left and, even with that, is considered one of the bigger lopsided trades in recent history.

 

I'm not saying you need to be happy with the return for Manny.  I'd rather have had Buehler as well.  We all wanted Verdugo at the time, too.  Fewer wanted Lux and May, who were outside the top-100 but rising.  There were some packages from other teams that may have been better.  Signing him was what they should've done long before, so we shouldn't have any of these guys, we should have Manny.  But for a rental I just don't think you can expect to get multiple top-50 guys or a top-10 overall type guy, even for a young HOF potential guy like Manny.  That truth is another part of why they should've signed him, even a good return that hits their ceiling likely wouldn't be more valuable than Manny.

 

What we got was one very good not great prospect and one decent prospect and then a bunch of filler.  I just think that saying that none of the guys have done anything yet is an unfair criticism since there wasn't any minor league baseball for about half of time since the trade and there is still ample time for Diaz and Kremer to be something and they were the main return.

 

I'm also not sure why you're writing Diaz and Kremer off.  I'm not super optimistic about Diaz, but he's got a reasonable shot to be an everyday outfielder.  Kremer has pitched badly so far this year but he's got some skills that will play if he can get the weaknesses under control.  And if not, should still salvage some value as a power throwing reliever with a wipeout curve.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah anyone ready to declare a verdict on a trade where the pitcher in it has made eight career starts and half of them are against the Yankees is definitely being a little too eager 

[Mackus]

Yeah anyone ready to declare a verdict on a trade where the pitcher in it has made eight career starts and half of them are against the Yankees is definitely being a little too eager 

 

I'm fine with him declaring the trade a loss.  I think it was.  Even if Diaz becomes an everyday guy and Kremer a #3.  I'd much rather have Manny.  I just don't like declaring the return a zero.  It's not as good as Manny, but it's not yet zero.

[BobPhelan]

Which one did you go with?

Brown alternate jersey all the way.

[Mike in STL]

Yeah anyone ready to declare a verdict on a trade where the pitcher in it has made eight career starts and half of them are against the Yankees is definitely being a little too eager

I guess I’ll just wait til these guys are almost 30 then.

I’m willing to give Diaz the year. That’s fine.

Kremer I just don’t like what I see from statcast. In baseball you can chalk some things up to bad luck. Im not judging him on his 8+ ERA. Having one of the highest exit velos against isn’t one of them. It means guys are seeing your pitches really well and squaring them up. One of the lowest swing and miss rates too.

Maybe it’s a small sample size for that too. But I would think the number of pitches and measuring what happens on those seems like a much bigger sample than number of games, or sets of nine innings when looking at ERA and the like.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Looks like a serious ankle injury for Manny.  Pretty gruesome video.

 

Borna Nazari on Twitter: "Here is the video of Padres Superstar Manny Machado suffering a gruesome ankle injury. #Padres https://t.co/IoeooH5nat" / Twitter

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Sucks. Having a great year

 

 

Just saw that xrays were negative. Thats good.