1669 replies to this topic

[dude]

Again, this is just Boras using deferred money to sell a perception of the contract.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN: Spring training: How Red Sox built MLB's best prospect trio

https://www.espn.com...istian-campbell

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Red Sox's Giolito (hammy) to start season on IL

[mdrunning]

Per Jeff Passan:

 

The Red Sox have reached an extension agreement with Garret Crochet on a six-year, $170 million deal. There is an opt-out after 2030 and the contract kicks in next season. It is by far the largest contract for a pitcher with 4+ years of service.

[BaltBird 24]

Average under $30M a year for an ace is a pretty good deal for Boston.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Is he an ace

[Mackus]

Average under $30M a year for an ace is a pretty good deal for Boston.

It's a bit over $30M for the 5 FA years. He had no shot at $20M in 2026 if he goes through arbitration. Making $3.8M this year. Skubal won the Cy Young last year and only got a $7.5M raise, so about $12M in 2026 is the max plausible amount he could've earned, so this is effectively a 5/$158-160M extension.

I don't know, seems like a huge risk to me. If I could pick between this and signing Burnes, for example, I'd just sign Burnes. Certainly possible they get great production from him and earn every penny. Won't matter to their bottom line if he's just ok either. Only negative would be if he gets hurt some more or just falls apart physically and can barely pitch. Stephen Strasburg style.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Is he an ace

Better than anything we have. And yes I think he's a TOR guy.  To me the only reason you chastise this is out of jealousy. Is it a risk? Sure. So what. Its a risk with a lot of upside.

[BobPhelan]

Its the right move for the Red Sox after trading a haul for him. I'd be happy if we extended him after trading for him. But it is a risk. Ace if healthy, rarely has been.

[BaltBird 24]

He was an ace level in 2024. Is it sustainable? That's the question. Certainly has the potential. As with every pitcher - the key will be how long his elbow can hold up before he needs another TJS.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Pass on ever giving out this type of contract to a pitcher.

[BaltBird 24]

I can't think of a single long term FA pitching deal over the past 20-25 years that hasn't been a disappointment for the Orioles, dating back to Pat Hentgen, Omar Daal, Ponson's return, Ubaldo, Cobb, etc.

[mdrunning]

No deferred money or no-trade clause, either. Instead, Crochet gets a $2 million assignment bonus if traded.

[weird-O]

When people discuss big market - small market teams, this is an example of the type of contract that teams with bottomless pits of money can comfortable do, that regular wealthy teams will probably avoid. Every team could afford this contract. But only a select few can have it blow up on them, and not miss a beat.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Pass on ever giving out this type of contract to a pitcher.

I get the sentiment. But then where is your quality pitching rotation going to come from? No I don't consider what we have this year to be a quality rotation.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

When people discuss big market - small market teams, this is an example of the type of contract that teams with bottomless pits of money can comfortable do, that regular wealthy teams will probably avoid. Every team could afford this contract. But only a select few can have it blow up on them, and not miss a beat.  

The O's could have this contract right now, have it blow up, and not miss a beat, at least according to their ownership.

[weird-O]

The O's could have this contract right now, have it blow up, and not miss a beat, at least according to their ownership.

I don't totally agree with that, and I get that you're saying this as a tongue in cheek nod to his comments. From what I see, the O's payroll is $163.8M. If this contract is ~$30M/yr, that puts the O's a few ticks below $200M. He takes the mound for the O's tomorrow, and blows out his arm (for good). Do they have room in the budget to sign another pitcher to a $30M/yr deal? That puts them at $230M, before next year's arbitration increases. Before you can catch your breath from that, BOOM, it's time to make a decision on Rutch. And then, Gunnar. 

 

The child-like fan in me wants to believe Rubenstein. As a rational adult fan, it's lip-service.

[mdrunning]

I don't totally agree with that, and I get that you're saying this as a tongue in cheek nod to his comments. From what I see, the O's payroll is $163.8M. If this contract is ~$30M/yr, that puts the O's a few ticks below $200M. He takes the mound for the O's tomorrow, and blows out his arm (for good). Do they have room in the budget to sign another pitcher to a $30M/yr deal? That puts them at $230M, before next year's arbitration increases. Before you can catch your breath from that, BOOM, it's time to make a decision on Rutch. And then, Gunnar. 

 

The child-like fan in me wants to believe Rubenstein. As a rational adult fan, it's lip-service.

It's also not a simple breakdown of revenue vs. player compensation. I think a lot of people simply factor in those two as "evidence" that a team could afford to go all-in on a big contract. It doesn't work that way; there are simply numerous more expenses than team payroll. One doesn't simply subtract player salaries from team revenues and assume the difference is going into ownership's pockets.

[ivanbalt]

I don't totally agree with that, and I get that you're saying this as a tongue in cheek nod to his comments. From what I see, the O's payroll is $163.8M. If this contract is ~$30M/yr, that puts the O's a few ticks below $200M. He takes the mound for the O's tomorrow, and blows out his arm (for good). Do they have room in the budget to sign another pitcher to a $30M/yr deal? That puts them at $230M, before next year's arbitration increases. Before you can catch your breath from that, BOOM, it's time to make a decision on Rutch. And then, Gunnar. 

 

The child-like fan in me wants to believe Rubenstein. As a rational adult fan, it's lip-service.

Well the good news in this scenario is that Henderson will never sign a long term deal here.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't totally agree with that, and I get that you're saying this as a tongue in cheek nod to his comments. From what I see, the O's payroll is $163.8M. If this contract is ~$30M/yr, that puts the O's a few ticks below $200M. He takes the mound for the O's tomorrow, and blows out his arm (for good). Do they have room in the budget to sign another pitcher to a $30M/yr deal? That puts them at $230M, before next year's arbitration increases. Before you can catch your breath from that, BOOM, it's time to make a decision on Rutch. And then, Gunnar. 

 

The child-like fan in me wants to believe Rubenstein. As a rational adult fan, it's lip-service.

No but they still field the SAME team they are now. One big contract doesn't change the ability to operate the exact same way they are now.