1647 replies to this topic

[Nigel Tufnel]

Red Sox stole 9 bases in last night's game against the Yankees.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: It’s Time for the Red Sox To Change Gears

[Nigel Tufnel]

I saw that Jansen can't travel with the team to Colorado because of his heart issues.  There's no way to replace him, so they have to play the series a player short.

[mdrunning]

Red Sox lost their fourth straight, 9-8, to the Rockies in 12 tonight. Their bullpen has been brutal these past few games.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MLB.com: Crochet dealt to Red Sox for big prospect haul (source)

https://www.mlb.com/...A&lctg=90110082

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Sources: Buehler, Red Sox agree to 1-year deal

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Red Sox mull 6-man rotation with revamped staff

[BSLChrisStoner]

Bregman to Boston.

[weird-O]

3/$120 - That is a nice payday. 

[ivanbalt]

3/$120 - That is a nice payday. 

$40 mil/year seems high as his numbers have been going down.

[makoman]

$40 mil/year seems high as his numbers have been going down.

Average and ISO didn't change much from the past few years (all down from his early peak) but his walk rate went from typically 12+% to 6.9% last year. Took 50 points off his OBP.

 

He's never really been above average at hitting it hard, normally in the 30s percentile, but been super elite at K rate and walk rate. Last year he swung a lot more and did get to 51 percentile hard hit. Still elite at not whiffing and K-ing, but walk rate now meh. Curious what that means going forward as he turns 31.

[weird-O]

$40 mil/year seems high as his numbers have been going down.

I'm rooting for this to be another Pablo Sandoval situation. 

 

This is one of those situation that makes me scratch my head. You've spent your career playing for a team that has gone to the AL championship series, and sometimes beyond, every year you've been in the league (except for last year). They paid you well, they wanted to pay you well again, and you're adored by the city. Houston just didn't want to commit to an 8-10 yr extension. If you were going to accept a short term contract, why not stay with them? 

 

If he fails to produce at elite levels, he'll learn good and fast, what it's like to be hated by the home team.   

[Mackus]

$40 mil/year seems high as his numbers have been going down.

 

Olney reporting that it's really ~$30M a year after accounting for the deferrals, which must be significant if that's true.

 

Still high, but a short-term deal you get paid more so makes sense.  Red Sox are betting a lot on his transition to 2B, as a lot of his value was in his quality 3B defense.  If he's only ok at 2B, that'll make him worth less.  And agree about the bat, he's still a good hitter but 115-120 OPS+ is a far cry from the 150-160 he put up early in his career.  He was 122 and 134 in '23 and '22 so maybe some better results are still possible.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The positions are certainly different but I played a lot of 3rd and 2nd. To me 3rd was tougher. 

[CantonJester]

Olney reporting that it's really ~$30M a year after accounting for the deferrals, which must be significant if that's true.

 

Still high, but a short-term deal you get paid more so makes sense.  Red Sox are betting a lot on his transition to 2B, as a lot of his value was in his quality 3B defense.  If he's only ok at 2B, that'll make him worth less.  And agree about the bat, he's still a good hitter but 115-120 OPS+ is a far cry from the 150-160 he put up early in his career.  He was 122 and 134 in '23 and '22 so maybe some better results are still possible.

 

He’ll start at 2B until Kristian Campbell is up in May or by June 1st. At that point Devers moves to DH and Bregman slots in at 3B where he remains amongst the elite in the sport. 

[BobPhelan]

Olney reporting that it's really ~$30M a year after accounting for the deferrals, which must be significant if that's true.

Still high, but a short-term deal you get paid more so makes sense. Red Sox are betting a lot on his transition to 2B, as a lot of his value was in his quality 3B defense. If he's only ok at 2B, that'll make him worth less. And agree about the bat, he's still a good hitter but 115-120 OPS+ is a far cry from the 150-160 he put up early in his career. He was 122 and 134 in '23 and '22 so maybe some better results are still possible.

Think it came out that there are no deferrals (Nightengale I think).

[mdrunning]

Think it came out that there are no deferrals (Nightengale I think).

Cots is indicating there is deferred money, but doesn't specify how much.

[Mackus]

Cots is indicating there is deferred money, but doesn't specify how much.

 

Some Boston reporters have said the CBT calculation of the AAV is $31.7M.  Which would mean that over half the money is deferred and for a long time.  For example, $15M now and $25M in ten years has an NPV of $31.2M using MLB's discount rate of 4.43%.

[weird-O]

I saw where Nightengale reported that half of the $40M/yr is deferred until the end of year 3. So he'll essentially get $20M/year for 6 yrs

[Mackus]

I saw where Nightengale reported that half of the $40M/yr is deferred until the end of year 3. So he'll essentially get $20M/year for 6 yrs

 

That report is somewhat incongruous with the reports of the AAV being $31.7M.  $20M now and $20M in 3 years would have an AAV of $37.6M, so that's quite a bit higher than the other report.  Half now and half a few years later does sound more realistic than something that takes the AAV all the way down to $31.7M range.