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#41 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:09 AM

His value is because he's a decent pitcher.  Not because he amasses innings.  We'd get the same 160-180 innings from some collection of guys starting in the #5 spot that we're going to get from Norris.  Norris doesn't provide more innings than the group of misfits would.  He should have a much better shot at providing those innings at a 4-4.5 ERA than the collection of other guys would, though, and that's why he's valuable.

 

I basically agree with what you are saying, but where I slightly disagree is that to me his value is that he is a decent pitcher that is capable of giving you 170 decent innings... better than a collection of misfits would have at providing those same innings.

Don't want to hijack this thread with spending too much time on Norris, without looking more at Gausman... so tying the two together, I think Norris' elbow (and how Gausman looks the next few weeks) are the things to watch here.



#42 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:09 AM

That's not what I was saying. If he becomes a 1-2 inning reliever, he may lose his ability to pitch as a starter without bring stretched out again. Thus, the SP depth is affected, at least in the short-term.

 

That's a fair point, though I don't think it'd take too long for him to stretch out to convert back to the rotation if needed.



#43 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:20 AM

I basically agree with what you are saying, but where I slightly disagree is that to me his value is that he is a decent pitcher that is capable of giving you 170 decent innings... better than a collection of misfits would have at providing those same innings.

 

Every pitcher is capable of giving you 170 innings unless they are injury prone and miss a ton of starts.  That's not a skill.  That's just showing up to work.  Staying healthy is a skill, but once you're healthy, going 170 innings isn't impressive.  170 innings is a very low innings total for someone who lasted all year in the rotation.  The reason starters don't get to 170 innings, is because they pitched badly, and weren't given more chances to start.

 

80 pitchers made 28 or more starts last season, more or less lasting the entire season in the rotation.  Only Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Locke, Jorge De la Rosa, and Dan Haren pitched fewer than 170 innings.

 

Norris is pretty good at getting batters out.  He's a solid pitcher.  He's not good at all at pitching deep into games.  He has been good so far at avoiding injury.



#44 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:27 AM

Every pitcher is capable of giving you 170 innings unless they are injury prone and miss a ton of starts.  That's not a skill.  That's just showing up to work.  Staying healthy is a skill, but once you're healthy, going 170 innings isn't impressive.  170 innings is a very low innings total for someone who lasted all year in the rotation.  The reason starters don't get to 170 innings, is because they pitched badly, and weren't given more chances to start.

 

80 pitchers made 28 or more starts last season, more or less lasting the entire season in the rotation.  Only Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Locke, Jorge De la Rosa, and Dan Haren pitched fewer than 170 innings.

 

Norris is pretty good at getting batters out.  He's a solid pitcher.  He's not good at all at pitching deep into games.  He has been good so far at avoiding injury.

 

Every pitcher isn't capable of giving you 170 innings. As you mentioned, the first part is showing up every 5th day... and plenty of pitchers are incapable of that. The second part is performing well enough, to continue to get the ball. Norris fits both of those criteria, that's why he is better than the typical dregs most teams teams have as their 5th.

 

You act like 80 pitchers illustrates your point... while I don't think it does. When a season starts, there are 150 starters across the league. That 80 out of that initial 150 got to 28 starts, illustrates the value of having someone consistently go to the post. Beyond that, you have a team like the 2013 O's who trotted out something like 13 different guys to start games.

As you mentioned before, most of the time you aren't going to have 3 guys who can stay healthy enough to stay in the rotation for the season. When your 5th starter is someone whose shown that consistency for the 3 previous years... that's a large part of his value.

 

Him not pitching deep into games means little when you are comparing him to other 5th starters. It means more when you compare him to better pitchers.



#45 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:32 AM

Norris does not provide any more innings than Britton, McFarland, Santana, and any other spot starters combining to be a patchwork 5th starter would give us.  Bud is gonna go out, make all his starts, and end up with 170-185 innings.  Some unknown rotation of mediocre 5th starters would also provide a similar number of innings.

 

Norris will simply pitch better during his innings than those guys will.  And that's why he's valuable.

 

His ability is in his effectiveness, not in his ability to eat innings, because he does not eat innings.  He is at the bear minimum threshold in terms of ability to eat innings.



#46 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:34 AM

Norris does not provide any more innings than Britton, McFarland, Santana, and any other spot starters combining to be a patchwork 5th starter would give us.  Bud is gonna go out, make all his starts, and end up with 170-185 innings.  Some unknown rotation of mediocre 5th starters would also provide a similar number of innings.

 

Norris will simply pitch better during his innings than those guys will.  And that's why he's valuable.

 

His ability is in his effectiveness, not in his ability to eat innings, because he does not eat innings.  He is at the bear minimum threshold in terms of ability to eat innings.

 

No, his ability is to provide those same innings with a higher level of effectiveness.



#47 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:36 AM

No, his ability is to provide those same innings with a higher level of effectiveness.

 

 

Norris will simply pitch better during his innings than those guys will.  And that's why he's valuable.



#48 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:38 AM

 

Yes, as I said several posts ago... I basically agreed with what you are saying.



#49 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:15 PM

Found the stat I was looking for.  BB-ref let's you look at IP/GS.  Last year 128 pitchers qualified (162 IP or more), Norris was 89th in IP/GS, so higher than I thought actually.  There were 296 pitchers who made at least one start last year.  Norris was 114th.

 

The league average is 5.90 IP/GS and Norris was at 5.80 last year and 5.78 for his career.   But what about the random fill-ins who would be combining to be the #5 starter if you didn't have someone like Norris?  If you look at only pitchers who made between 3 and 10 starts (I'm thinking that is a decent representation of guys who were given a shot at sticking in the rotation, but were removed, I don't want just random 1-2 spot start guys, but actually people who were given a shot), the average is 5.73 IP/GS.  So Norris gets 0.21 more outs per start than the fill-ins, or nearly no difference.

 

I'm not sure guys with between 3 & 10 starts is the best group to look at.  If you look at 1-5 starts only, the average is 5.57 IP/GS, so Norris gets 0.7 more outs per start than those guys.  Somewhere in that range is probably the fairest answer.


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#50 Matt_P

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:23 PM

If you look at only pitchers who made between 3 and 10 starts (I'm thinking that is a decent representation of guys who were given a shot at sticking in the rotation, but were removed, I don't want just random 1-2 spot start guys, but actually people who were given a shot), the average is 5.73 IP/GS.  So Norris gets 0.21 more outs per start than the fill-ins, or nearly no difference.

 

I'm not sure guys with between 3 & 10 starts is the best group to look at.  If you look at 1-5 starts only, the average is 5.57 IP/GS, so Norris gets 0.7 more outs per start than those guys.  Somewhere in that range is probably the fairest answer.

 

What's their average ERA (preferably weighted by either innings or starts)? About 5.50?



#51 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:29 PM

What's their average ERA (preferably weighted by either innings or starts)? About 5.50?

 

Don't have the ERA of that group.  The BB-ref page with IP/GS (starting pitching) actually doesn't have ERA.  I'll see if I can figure a way to find it out.



#52 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:43 PM

Was able to do it via fangraphs.

 

Amongst pitchers with between 3 & 10 starts, the average ERA was 5.11, FIP was 4.86, and xFIP was 4.52. 

 

That's weighted by games started, and using only numbers as a starter.

 

Weighted by innings pitched, it's an ERA of 4.89, FIP of 4.70, and xFIP of 4.39.

 

I think I did the calculations right, but could probably use a double-check.


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#53 Matt_P

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 01:51 PM

I thought the results would be worse but fair enough.



#54 Mackus

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 02:06 PM

I thought the results would be worse but fair enough.

 

That was just for 2013, I think it'd probably be pretty similar most years, but perhaps the September callups pitched better this year, or some stud SP only made 9 starts then got hurt (can't think of any right now) or something.  I, too, would've expected a bit worse than 4.90-5.10.  That'd be roughly a 78-80 ERA+ though (without any park adjustments), which is pretty darn bad.



#55 mgallo

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Posted 08 March 2014 - 01:02 PM

First of all the average amount of starters used by MLB teams was 10.2 last year and we used 14....If he pitches well this year he is gonna get his shot.

 

By the way everyone is so sure Norris is our 5th starter but I am not so sure...He had the best FIP and XFIP on the staff last year and with Miguels tendancy to wear down thru the game and his lack of a huge platoon split I think he is the best option to move from the rotation to the closers role.

 

I just think it is way to early to say Norris is gonna be our worst starter this year...It could easily be someone else so lets not jump into anything to soon to get Gausman in the rotation on OD...And plus we all no at least one guy is gonna get hurt and another is gonna be terrible so I say lets start Kevin in AAA unless he is just amazing this spring.



#56 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 March 2014 - 07:25 PM

MLB.com: Norris builds on impressive spring with solid outing
http://mlb.mlb.com/n...8&vkey=news_mlb



#57 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 09:54 PM

Will get lost a bit in the way the game ended... but 7 scoreless from Norris tonight. Attacked with the fastball.



#58 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 April 2014 - 09:21 AM

Last night, Norris gained his first win of the year.

He went 6ip, 5 hits, 3 er, 2 hr's, 1 bb, 4 k's

 

Last 3 starts... 19.1 ip, 7 er.



#59 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 01 May 2014 - 06:16 PM

5/1: 5.1 ip, 7 hits, 1 er, 1 bb, 3 k's



#60 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:40 PM

5/7: 5.2 ip, 3 hits, 2 er, 1 hr, 4 bb's, 5 k's






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