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#21 FlavaDave10

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:37 AM

$2.25M isn't a concern to most teams.  Apparently it is to us.

 

Webb, Matusz, Patton, Reimold, and Pearce are now tied up for about $7.5M.

 

We couldn't get the same mediocre at best production out of 5-6 guys signed to minimum deals and only be out $2-3M?

 

Reimold at his price is far from the end of the world. If he's healthy (HUGE if there), he's worth a lot more than $1.025M. Pearce I can see your point, but I like him as a depth guy. No idea why Patton was tendered at all. Matusz might be on the move IMO. 


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#22 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:41 AM

Reimold at his price is far from the end of the world. If he's healthy (HUGE if there), he's worth a lot more than $1.025M. Pearce I can see your point, but I like him as a depth guy. No idea why Patton was tendered at all. Matusz might be on the move IMO. 

The problem is, as Mackus said, is the collection of guys for all that money.

 

Individually, its not big deal but on a team with payroll constraints, overpaying 3-5M for that collection of "talent" is a poor use of allocating the money.

 

DD wants to talk about that but I am not sure he knows how to properly do it.



#23 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:41 AM

$2.25M isn't a concern to most teams.  Apparently it is to us.
 
Webb, Matusz, Patton, Reimold, and Pearce are now tied up for about $7.5M.
 
We couldn't get the same mediocre at best production out of 5-6 guys signed to minimum deals and only be out $2-3M?

 
Reimold at his price is far from the end of the world. If he's healthy (HUGE if there), he's worth a lot more than $1.025M. Pearce I can see your point, but I like him as a depth guy. No idea why Patton was tendered at all. Matusz might be on the move IMO. 


As I said a couple months ago, they are giving Matusz a chance to earn a rotation spot in spring training so they are planning for if best case happens and he wins a spot.


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#24 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:41 AM

$2.25M isn't a concern to most teams.  Apparently it is to us.

 

Webb, Matusz, Patton, Reimold, and Pearce are now tied up for about $7.5M.

 

We couldn't get the same mediocre at best production out of 5-6 guys signed to minimum deals and only be out $2-3M?

 

Yesterday we thought the O's basically had $18M or so left to spend this year. If the O's add another veteran reliever, I'll be more prone to agree with you. If they added Webb, because they preferred him at $2.25M vs. the $4-$5M options, I am fine with this move.



#25 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:43 AM

Yesterday we thought the O's basically had $18M or so left to spend this year. If the O's add another veteran reliever, I'll be more prone to agree with you. If they added Webb, because they preferred him at $2.25M vs. the $4-$5M options, I am fine with this move.

How about preferring similar guys for 1M instead of 2.25?



#26 FlavaDave10

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:45 AM

As I said a couple months ago, they are giving Matusz a chance to earn a rotation spot in spring training so they are planning for if best case happens and he wins a spot.

 

I think Matusz deserves a shot. Seems silly to be using him in the pen when he has 3-4 solid pitches. If he can be a MOTR starter, $2.5M is pretty darn cheap to pay for one. 


"We're not going to be f***ing suck this year" - Alex Ovechkin

 

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#27 FlavaDave10

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:45 AM

How about preferring similar guys for 1M instead of 2.25?

 

Such as...?


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#28 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:47 AM

How about preferring similar guys for 1M instead of 2.25?

 

Maybe they think the upside of Webb is worth that additional $1.25 over theoretical guy at $1M.  Or that Reimold at $1.025M is a potential lottery ticket. Could have bought the cheaper ticket with lower upside, but I don't have an issue there either.

Don't disagree with the overall point you and Mackus have made though. It is valid to look at that collection, and say you might have been able to meet/exceed their production at a lower price... and for the O's, that does matter if the total salary is going to be capped at $100M.

We will see what else they do, and where the final dollars end up.



#29 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:48 AM

Such as...?

I don't know yet...Zero doubt someone decent signs a 1 year deal for less money than Webb got.

 

It happens every year...and it will happen with multiple guys.

 

There will be guys with ST invites that are likely to give you a sub 4 ERA as a reliever.



#30 FlavaDave10

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:51 AM

I don't know yet...Zero doubt someone decent signs a 1 year deal for less money than Webb got.

 

It happens every year...and it will happen with multiple guys.

 

There will be guys with ST invites that are likely to give you a sub 4 ERA as a reliever.

 

Webb has a far higher probability of doing so than a guy with an ST invite. 


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#31 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:55 AM

Holy overreaction.

#32 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:55 AM

Webb has a far higher probability of doing so than a guy with an ST invite. 

 

I agree with this, and that's why he's getting 2/$4.5M instead of 1/$750k.

 

Several guys signed to minor league deals this offseason will outperform Webb this year.  And for every one of those guys, 2 or 3 other minor league contract relievers will pitch just as terribly as you expect them to.

 

However, given that we can't increase payroll, I'm not sure we should be spending what limited resources we have on that higher probability for success, especially when it's not like even if he's that good that Webb will be anything more than the 4th best arm in the bullpen.



#33 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:56 AM

Webb has a far higher probability of doing so than a guy with an ST invite. 

Why?  He was in the NL and his peripherals suggest he will see an increase in ERA.

 

I agree with Chris that I like the IP...But the bottom line is he is a dime a dozen, mediocre reliever...One that can be good one year and below average the next.

 

His velocity saw a drop.

 

You don't pay for mediocrity...You can always find that for no money....Webb was just NT and the Orioles rushed to get him.  Why?  Were you afraid someone else would sign him?  Didn't you have 10 other names on your list?

 

Its just a very poor use of funds and generally goes to how the Orioles operate.



#34 BobPhelan

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:09 AM

I'm fine with the signing. Would've preferred the second year be an option that maybe locked in at 50 IP or something.

#35 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:09 AM

Why?  he was in the NL and his peripherals suggest he will see an increase in ERA.

 

I don't know that the peripherals really suggest that he's much worse than about a 3.50 ERA.

 

He's a heavy ground-baller who keeps the ball in the park.  FIP uses actual HR/FB rate for the pitcher.  xFIP uses expected HRs allowed based on the numbers of flyballs the guy gives up and the league average rate.  Webb has a history of keeping the ball in the park at a really good rate, so I think FIP is probably the better indicator of what to expect from him instead of xFIP.  His career FIP is 3.45 and last few years it's been 3.60, 3.26, and 3.62. 

 

Plus, I'd expect our infield defense to help him out as well, so his ERA should be lower than his fielding-independent ERA.

 

He's still nothing special.  I'd expect around a 3.25-3.50 ERA from him.  League average for all AL relievers last year was 4.29, so he's certainly an above average reliever if he can do that, but he's not likely to be much better than our 3rd or 4th best arm out there.

 

The velocity drop you mention is a potential red flag, though.



#36 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:10 AM

I don't know that the peripherals really suggest that he's much worse than about a 3.50 ERA.

 

He's a heavy ground-baller who keeps the ball in the park.  FIP uses actual HR/FB rate for the pitcher.  xFIP uses expected HRs allowed based on the numbers of flyballs the guy gives up and the league average rate.  Webb has a history of keeping the ball in the park at a really good rate, so I think FIP is probably the better indicator of what to expect from him instead of xFIP.  His career FIP is 3.45 and last few years it's been 3.60, 3.26, and 3.62. 

 

Plus, I'd expect our infield defense to help him out as well, so his ERA should be lower than his fielding-independent ERA.

 

He's still nothing special.  I'd expect around a 3.25-3.50 ERA from him.  League average for all AL relievers last year was 4.29, so he's certainly an above average reliever if he can do that, but he's not likely to be much better than our 3rd or 4th best arm out there.

 

The velocity drop you mention is a potential red flag, though.

But he will be coming to the AL, so I would expect an increase in ERA just based off of that.



#37 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:18 AM

But he will be coming to the AL, so I would expect an increase in ERA just based off of that.

 

Yeah a little, but relievers tend to face pitchers far less often so there may not be quite as much of a dropoff.

 

Last year he only faced pitchers 10 times, compared to 322 batters faced.

 

I don't know if the league is just tougher than the NL is when you eliminate the effect of the pitcher.  It probably is a bit tougher, especially the AL East in particular, but starters I think have a much more grueling adjustment than relievers.


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#38 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:20 AM

Yeah a little, but relievers tend to face pitchers far less often so there may not be quite as much of a dropoff.

 

Last year he only faced pitchers 10 times, compared to 322 batters faced.

Even without taking that into account, the NL just sucks.

 

More offense in the AL...especially in this division.

 

My guess is his ERA will be in the 3.3-4.2 area.

 

Huge range but for a dime a dozen reliever like him, that's what you expect.

 

As you said, he is your 3rd or 4th best arm out of the pen...MAYBE.  As currently constructed, i don't think he is even that high on our list.



#39 dude

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:20 AM

ahhhhh, now it all makes sense.  How could we have doubted?

 

 

Webb has 4 years of service and was non-tendered by the Marlins.  If they'd dealt nothing for him, they could have worked out something like a 1/1.5 (under 1M last year in ARB1) and not made a second year commit at least in guaranteed money.

 

Sarcasm aside, I don't have any issues signing Webb, seems like a decent move, big guy with high GB rates.

 

Seems like this should force another move....he's not really the answer to losing Johnson.....is he?

 

Orioles now have 6 RHed RPs on ML deals without options: Hunter (~3.25M), ODay (3.2M), Webb (2/4.5), Brach, Escalona, Stinson



#40 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:38 AM

Even without taking that into account, the NL just sucks.

 

More offense in the AL...especially in this division.

 

The division I'll give you, but the leagues as whole entities aren't that different aside from the pitchers.

 

AL pitchers had a 725 OPS-against when facing all position players last year.

NL pitchers had a 725 OPS-against when facing all position players last year.

 

AL pitchers had a 4.04 ERA against AL batters and a 3.65 ERA against NL batters (including P) last year.

NL pitchers had a 3.96 ERA against AL batters and a 3.71 ERA against NL batters (including P) last year.

 

That's just from last year, so maybe someone should look into that further, but I really don't think there is much of a difference aside from the fact that pitchers hit.  Maybe a tiny bit easier in the NL, but nothing substantial






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