92 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Jonah Keri ‏@jonahkeri9m

Actual scoop! Source confirms #Orioles have agreement with Ryan Webb for 2-year deal worth $4.5 million, pending physical.

[Russ]

BB-Ref page

[Russ]

Jonah Keri ‏@jonahkeri11m

Source notes the similarities between Josh Johnson and Ryan Webb, O's love Webb's sinker & big groundball rate.

 

 

Jonah Keri ‏@jonahkeri4m

More on Ryan Webb: Below-avg K rate, 57% career GB rate, platoon splits in the past, though better in 2013. Also: https://twitter.com/jonahkeri/status/407739910922047489 …

[NewMarketSean]

Decent BP arm. Hopefully he can keep the momentum from last year going.

 

EDIT: So he's a sinkerballer with a lot of GB's....could the O's have replaced Johnson with a cheaper and younger version?

[You Play to Win the Game]

I'll allow it. Decent numbers, had a good year last year, lots of walks though.

[JeffLong]

Between Webb & Peguero it would seem our 40-man is full, no?

[clapdiddy]

Between Webb & Peguero it would seem our 40-man is full, no?

 

I think there is one more slot open.

[Matt_P]

Between Webb & Peguero it would seem our 40-man is full, no?

 

We're at 39. We've cut a few guys recently.

[Mackus]

Not a big fan of his, unless they think he'll be able to outperform his peripherals by pitching in front of our excellent infield defense, which is a fair expectation.

 

He's not great against lefties, career 791 OPS and 330 wOBA against, but he gets righties out at a decent but not dominating clip, career 650 OPS and 288 wBOA against.

 

Probably a little bit better, right-handed version of Troy Patton except with more ground balls, fewer HRs, and fewer Ks.  Should improve the bullpen, but he wasn't exactly dirt cheap. 

 

Guess my overall opinion of the move will depend on exactly how much we're able to spend as well as what some of the guys who maybe have a better shot at stepping into the closer role end up signing for.

[Mackus]

God, I wish I didn't have to worry that giving a middle reliever a $2M salary was going to prevent us from doing other things this offseason.  How pathetic.

[FlavaDave10]

Good value signing. Especially when you consider that Webb cost 25% of what Johnson is assumed to make, and 50% of Mujica. As long as he doesn't walk too many guys and he keeps that GB% over 55%, should do well for the Orioles.

 

Could see him getting some time at closer, along with Hunter and Matusz and O'Day, depending on situation. Watch Buck pick a "closer" though. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Turning 28...

At-least 50 ip each of the past 4 years, 80.1 ip in 2013.

 

2013: 66 games, 80.1 ip, 2-6. 2.91 era, 70 hits, 5 hr, 27 bb's, 54 k's, .244 baa, .695 OPS against, GB% 56.3

 

Vs. LH .714 OPS against

Vs. RH .681 OPS against

Looks to be someone that can help.

[FlavaDave10]

Turning 28...

At-least 50 ip each of the past 4 years, 80.1 ip in 2013.

 

2013: 66 games, 80.1 ip, 2-6. 2.91 era, 70 hits, 5 hr, 27 bb's, 54 k's, .244 baa, .695 OPS against, GB% 56.3

 

Vs. LH .714 OPS against

Vs. RH .681 OPS against

Looks to be someone that can help.

 

Career splits have shown that he can be effective against both righties and lefties. My only concern with him is walks, but $2.5M seems to be an extremely fair price for him. If I was forced to choose ONE closer, I'd probably choose Webb. Hunter can't get lefties out, Matusz can't get righties out, O'Day is too darn good to use in the ninth. 

[Mackus]

Turning 28...

At-least 50 ip each of the past 4 years, 80.1 ip in 2013.

 

2013: 66 games, 80.1 ip, 2-6. 2.91 era, 70 hits, 5 hr, 27 bb's, 54 k's, .244 baa, .695 OPS against, GB% 56.3

 

Vs. LH .714 OPS against

Vs. RH .681 OPS against

Looks to be someone that can help.

 

His ERA and OPS-against for last year are bit deceptive, because he had a completely unsustainable 266 BABIP.  Lowest of his career by over 20 points and 40 points below his career average.  It's especially unsustainable since he's a ground ball pitcher, and a higher percentage of groundballs become hits than do fly balls.  Similarly in 2012, when his ERA was 4.03, he had a crazy high 350 BABIP.  Expect him to be in the 300-310 range next year unless he again gets particularly lucky or unlucky, and have an ERA probably somewhere in the 3.25 range (a little below his career FIP).  Solid but nothing special for a relief pitcher.

[SportsGuy]

He saw a big drop in velocity in 2013.

 

He is slightly below average at missing bats.

 

Doesn't strike out a lot of guys, walks a few too many and his xFIP and FIP have him as a 3.5-3.9 ERA pitcher.

 

And we just guaranteed him 2 years for a few million a season?

 

We could have picked someone off the scrap heap for 1/1 and given us similar numbers.

[FlavaDave10]

His ERA and OPS-against for last year are bit deceptive, because he had a completely unsustainable 266 BABIP.  Lowest of his career by over 20 points and 40 points below his career average.  It's especially unsustainable since he's a ground ball pitcher, and a higher percentage of groundballs become hits than do fly balls.  Similarly in 2012, when his ERA was 4.03, he had a crazy high 350 BABIP.  Expect him to be in the 300-310 range next year unless he again gets particularly lucky or unlucky, and have an ERA probably somewhere in the 3.25 range (a little below his career FIP).  Solid but nothing special for a relief pitcher.

 

Funny thing is, he had a low groundball rate in 2012 when he had his ridiculous BABIP. 

[SportsGuy]

This is reallocating your money?

[BSLChrisStoner]

His ERA and OPS-against for last year are bit deceptive, because he had a completely unsustainable 266 BABIP.  Lowest of his career by over 20 points and 40 points below his career average.  It's especially unsustainable since he's a ground ball pitcher, and a higher percentage of groundballs become hits than do fly balls.  Similarly in 2012, when his ERA was 4.03, he had a crazy high 350 BABIP.  Expect him to be in the 300-310 range next year unless he again gets particularly lucky or unlucky, and have an ERA probably somewhere in the 3.25 range.  Solid but nothing special for a relief pitcher.

 

All fair points. At $2.25M per year, nothing I'm particularly concerned about though. I like that's he has been relatively durable the last 4 years, and used a lot the last two years. I like that his innings jumped last year, despite the appearance total staying the same.

I can buy the valid argument about his BABIP being unsustainable, but I like the profile of guys who get GB rates at the level he did. Especially with the O's infield defense behind him.

I like that his splits last year were good, but note that over the past 3 years they are more pronounced.

I like his size (6'6, 245 lbs) and his age... think he is a good bet to help, with the acknowledgement there will likely be some volatility with his numbers. As long as he is consistently available, and regularly induces grounders... that is good enough for me.

[Mackus]

$2.25M isn't a concern to most teams.  Apparently it is to us.

 

Webb, Matusz, Patton, Reimold, and Pearce are now tied up for about $7.5M.

 

We couldn't get the same mediocre at best production out of 5-6 guys signed to minimum deals and only be out $2-3M?

[Dr. FLK]

$2.25M isn't a concern to most teams.  Apparently it is to us.

 

Webb, Matusz, Patton, Reimold, and Pearce are now tied up for about $7.5M.

 

We couldn't get the same mediocre at best production out of 5-6 guys signed to minimum deals and only be out $2-3M?

Exactly.  When we seem to be refusing to increase our payroll, why in the world are we spending money like this on these kind of guys?  It makes no sense.  Individually, these moves aren't bad.  But they add up.  I don't like this move at all just because I don't want this kind of money dumped into the bullpen for a cheap team before other holes have been filled.