513 replies to this topic

[hallas]

The differences in frequency of pitch locations aren't that stark to explain why Hardy has struggled so much, IMO.

I think he's just not hitting as well this year. The different approach pitchers are taking may describe some of the dropoff, but it's not a major factor, IMO.

Here's the percentages of pitch locations from your chart for 2011:

0.81	2.16	1.08	0.81	0.54
3.50	6.20	10.51	4.85	2.16
2.96	7.01	10.78	11.32	2.43
1.35	3.77	7.55	9.16	2.16
0.54	0.54	4.04	2.96	0.81

And here it is for 2012:

1.27	1.27	1.27	2.12	0.00
2.12	3.81	7.63	8.47	0.85
2.54	5.93	9.75	9.32	5.08
2.12	5.93	6.78	9.32	4.24
0.00	2.97	3.81	2.54	0.85

And here is the difference in those percentages (not a percent-increase, just the increase or decrease in the frequency for each location):

0.46	-0.89	0.19	1.31	-0.54
-1.39	-2.39	-2.89	3.62	-1.31
-0.42	-1.08	-1.04	-2.00	2.66
0.77	2.16	-0.77	0.16	2.08
-0.54	2.43	-0.23	-0.42	0.04

None of that really strikes me too strongly as a major shift in the way pitchers are pitching him. He's just not hitting as well in just about every zone, which to me indicates a more all-encompassing issue, which could just be as simple as saying he's having a bad season.

Hardy (and Jones, for that matter) are getting colossally unlucky on line drives. His xBABIP is around .260 right now, which is around 30 points higher than his actual BABIP. This is largely driven by the fact that his BABIP on line drives is .585, or .180 lower than we'd expect. You have to think he's better than this.

[SportsGuy]

Hardy has been in the league long enough for people to know who he is.

He is just slumping...maybe even playing through an injury we don't know about.

[mweb08]

To piss you and the people at foxhole.com off incessantly.

I'm not a big fan of Reynolds in the 2 hole. I like contact along with a solid OBP guy in that spot. In fact, I would lead off Reynolds and bat Markakis #2 before I did the reverse. I could buy Betemit though, at least vs RHP.

I'm not a big fan of Reynolds batting 2nd either, but I like it a lot more than Hardy in that spot. I'd also be fine with your suggestion.

[Mike B]

When we are talking about batting Reynolds second then we really do not have any options at the second spot.
I really do not know who I would put behind Nick. I think maybe We should move everyone up and JJ down.
Nick
AJ
Matt
Thome
Reynolds
Davis
JJ
Betemit
Flaherty/Tolleson

I hate AJ batting 2 but it gets our 2 best hitters the most AB's

I also hate writing in Betemit period.

BTW, with the starting pitching we have we could write in FRobby, Murray, Ripken, Brooks, Singy, when they are all in their prime, and still not win.
Also BTW, Let's stop the buck bashing...he knows the game is a good manager, and knows how to write in a lineup. He is the same guy everyone loved 4 weeks ago.

[SportsGuy]

http://www.baltimore... ... 4555.story

I love the idea of, replace with who?

As if Hardy is the only batter in the lineup.

He has NEVER been a #2 hitter Buck!

[Pedro Cerrano]

He has a .257 OBP on THE YEAR and he still bats second. He should never have batted second to begin with. Buck simply can't make this adjustment. Not sure what the issue is, whether he's clinging to the 30 HR he hit last year (which isn't a great idea anyway) or if he thinks he "owes" him the 2 hole but this type of move should be obvious and really makes me question Buck's ability to manage this team.

[SportsGuy]

At this moment, Mike B's lineup is the correct one.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Let that digest a second. For the entire season (NOT JUST A BAD TWO WEEK STRETCH) our #2 hitter has gotten on base 1 out of every 4 at-bats. That is HORRENDOUS.

[SportsGuy]

I like this lineup:

Markakis- RF
Headley- 3rd
Wieters- C
Jones- CF
Upton- LF
Davis- 1st or DH
Hardy- SS
Reynolds- 1st or DH
Flaherty/Tolleson/cardboard cutout of Alomar- 2nd

[SportsGuy]

Let that digest a second. For the entire season (NOT JUST A BAD TWO WEEK STRETCH) our #2 hitter has gotten on base 1 out of every 4 at-bats. That is HORRENDOUS.

And as good as he was last year, his OBP was only 310. So, its not like he was a top flight OBP guy last year and is usually in the area of 320.

The idea that Buck EVER put him in the #2 spot was dumb to begin with.

[Mackus]

The idea that Buck EVER put him in the #2 spot was dumb to begin with.

While I agree in general that he should be batting 6th or so, when he's on a hot streak he can bat anywhere in the lineup, so I don't necessarily agree that it was dumb to ever put him in the #2 hole. Just that once he cools off, you should move him out of that spot.

[SportsGuy]

While I agree in general that he should be batting 6th or so, when he's on a hot streak he can bat anywhere in the lineup, so I don't necessarily agree that it was dumb to ever put him in the #2 hole. Just that once he cools off, you should move him out of that spot.

When he is hot, with his power, I would rather him being lower in the lineup to drive in runs.

[Mackus]

When he is hot, with his power, I would rather him being lower in the lineup to drive in runs.

Yeah I'm fine with that, too. I think typically he should bat between 5 and 7 depending on how he's doing recently.

Just had a tiny little nit to pick with saying that it is always a bad decision to bad him #2. I think it's just usually a bad decision

[hallas]

Someone from the OH suggested leaving Hardy vs LHP. That might be an acceptable option, since his OBP against LHP is .340 this season and .347 in his career. We can put in Betemit or Thome against RHP and we're golden. Or at least, slightly more golden than in the past.

[Adam Wolff]

The thing I don't understand, is Buck has shown a willingness to shuffle the lineup a bit. I bet everyone else in the lineup has hit at a different spot in the order at some point, except for Hardy. It just makes absolutely no sense. Even when he's going well, he's not a #2, although it's more arguable at that point. Move him down Buck!

[DJ MC]

Someone from the OH suggested leaving Hardy vs LHP. That might be an acceptable option, since his OBP against LHP is .340 this season and .347 in his career. We can put in Betemit or Thome against RHP and we're golden. Or at least, slightly more golden than in the past.

About the only thing worthwhile from the article posting above is the idea that Hardy is still better against lefties and could work well in those situations.

Of course, everything else is a load of crap, so it sort of ended up buried.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hardy's 6 hitting streak ended last night.

Does have 2 homers, and a double in his last 10 games, with 5 bb's, and 7 k's.

Season: .218 baa, 14 hr's, 37 rbi's, 23 bb's, 65 k's, 16 doubles, 2 triples, .635 OPS (.261 OBP).

The O's need his bat to come alive down the stretch.

[You Play to Win the Game]

He seems to look more comfortable at the plate of late. He even drew a walk last night in the 9th. I like him to post a couple solid months to close out the season.

[ncicere]

The MLB season is so long that its hard for any human being to keep up a ridiculous pace or even be consistent year after year. Thats why the ones that do it are in the hall of fame. Hardy is doing his job. He is playing phenomenal D, and getting hits now and then. He is heating up, and I bet he finishes with 22-25 Home Runs when its all said and done. That is production from a usually unproductive position.

[Oriole85]

Hardy's 6 hitting streak ended last night.

Does have 2 homers, and a double in his last 10 games, with 5 bb's, and 7 k's.

Season: .218 baa, 14 hr's, 37 rbi's, 23 bb's, 65 k's, 16 doubles, 2 triples, .635 OPS (.261 OBP).

The O's need his bat to come alive down the stretch.

I feel that he was getting incredibly unlucky during his slump, I think Trout's amazing catch symbolized this.