513 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

PressBox: Showalter terms Hardy a champ to build around
http://www.pressboxo...ory.cfm?id=9026

[You Play to Win the Game]

PressBox: Showalter terms Hardy a champ to build around
http://www.pressboxo...ory.cfm?id=9026

Great article. I love watching Hardy play defense, just as we were discussing in the game thread yesterday. He's just remarkably consistent in the field.

[Chris B]

Great article. I love watching Hardy play defense, just as we were discussing in the game thread yesterday. He's just remarkably consistent in the field.

This just hit me now, but from a consistence point of view, he's a lot like Mike Bordick. A better hitting Bordick.

[RShack]

I agree with the article's point, which is that Hardy is way more special than most folks seem to realize.

However, I'm not sure where the article's title came from. I didn't see where Buck said he was a guy to build around. I don't mean that to in any way diss Hardy... just questioning the title, that's all...

I especially liked the part where Buck said that, when Hardy does make it an error, it almost makes everybody else feel better. That's a perfect way to phrase a compliment...

[SportsGuy]

His poor BA and OBP is an issue though.

He is a terrible #2 hitter, yet Buck insists on batting him there.

[Adam Wolff]

His poor BA and OBP is an issue though.

He is a terrible #2 hitter, yet Buck insists on batting him there.

Yeah, I think he's more of a 5 or 6.

To me, once Nick is back, the best lineup (top 6) would be:

Roberts
Markakis
Jones
Wieters
Davis
Hardy

Also would have nice balance, going Switch, left, right, switch, left, right.

[SportsGuy]

Yeah, I think he's more of a 5 or 6.

To me, once Nick is back, the best lineup (top 6) would be:

Roberts
Markakis
Jones
Wieters
Davis
Hardy

Also would have nice balance, going Switch, left, right, switch, left, right.

Personally, I would switch Wieters and Jones but only because Wieters has said he is most comfortable and has his personal best approach batting third.

[Mackus]

His poor BA and OBP is an issue though.

He is a terrible #2 hitter, yet Buck insists on batting him there.

I'd much rather see him in the #6 or #7 hole as well. When he's hot you can definitely have him at the top of the lineup, but when he's just going along like usual (or worse, slumping) you definitely are better off with his low OBP lower down in the lineup (but not so low that his occasional power is under-utilized).

When Nick comes back, I'd like to see a lineup of:

2B Roberts
RF Markakis
CF Jones
C Wieters
DH Davis
SS Hardy
1B Reynolds
LF Pearce
3B Betemit/Tolleson

If Hardy is then you can move him up to #2 and slide everyone else down.

[RShack]

Is it just me, or does Hardy seem like he's in a really, really good mood all the time?

Everybody *says* they're happy as a clam just to be playing baseball... everybody *says* "I'm just happy to be here"... but with Hardy that seems to be the actual truth...

(Maybe he's just like that... maybe he'd be a happy guy regardless of what he's doing...)

[Chris B]

Another guy slumping...66 at-bats without a homer.

[mweb08]

I know the options to put at 2nd aren't great, but JJ has been awful this year. Someone with a .255 OBP should not bat 2nd under any circumstance imo. And it's not like he's bringing much else to the 2 hole.

I'd like to see Reynolds and his .340 OBP inserted into that spot.

Regardless of what's done, the back end of the lineup will be ugly.

[SportsGuy]

Because Buck doesn't know how to make a lineup?

Agree about Reynolds.

Hopefully Headley will be our #2 hitter soon.

BTW, I thought lineups didnt matter?

[mweb08]

Because Buck doesn't know how to make a lineup?

Agree about Reynolds.

Hopefully Headley will be our #2 hitter soon.

BTW, I thought lineups didnt matter?

They don't matter a great deal.

And they barely matter as long as the person constructing them do so with common sense.

[SportsGuy]

They don't matter a great deal.

And they barely matter as long as the person constructing them do so with common sense.

Well then why ask why is Hardy batting second?

[mweb08]

Well then why ask why is Hardy batting second?

Because while they don't matter a great deal, they do matter, which is what I just said.

[DJ MC]

Because while they don't matter a great deal, they do matter, which is what I just said.

I've seen the studies that say lineup construction doesn't matter all that much over the course of a season (a couple dozen runs from best to worst). What I would be curious to see are studies that also control for the quality of players. Whether a team that has a lot of offensive talent and scores a lot of runs anyway would see the meaning of a lineup go down while a team that struggles offensively--and needs those extra runs--would see this as more important.

Common sense would imply just that. Which is why for a team that is struggling to score like the Orioles, putting your regular with the lowest OBP (.255; seriously, next closest is Andino's .292) in the number-two spot in the lineup in front of Jones and Wieters and Davis makes very little sense.

[bnickle]

To piss you and the people at foxhole.com off incessantly.

I'm not a big fan of Reynolds in the 2 hole. I like contact along with a solid OBP guy in that spot. In fact, I would lead off Reynolds and bat Markakis #2 before I did the reverse. I could buy Betemit though, at least vs RHP.

[DJ MC]

To piss you and the people at foxhole.com off incessantly.

I'm not a big fan of Reynolds in the 2 hole. I like contact along with a solid OBP guy in that spot. In fact, I would lead off Reynolds and bat Markakis #2 before I did the reverse. I could buy Betemit though, at least vs RHP.

There's no way in hell it would happen, but at least it would be an interesting solution. Reynolds is probably going to be on-base (and is more likely to be on second than anyone we would put in that spot short of Markakis), and he's going to give the team a few 1-0 leads.

Since Buck is still insisting against all the evidence in Hardy's career and the weight of baseball history that he is a number-2 hitter, again, there is no way it happens.

[LanceRinker]

If Hardy would just make an adjustment to his batting stance he could start to perform better at the plate.

Not even kidding - http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=3242

Hardy was crushing RHP's last season - 25 of his 30 HR's were against righties. This season he's batting below .200 against righties and I think the reason is because they've figured him out.

[Mackus]

The differences in frequency of pitch locations aren't that stark to explain why Hardy has struggled so much, IMO.

I think he's just not hitting as well this year. The different approach pitchers are taking may describe some of the dropoff, but it's not a major factor, IMO.

Here's the percentages of pitch locations from your chart for 2011:

0.81	2.16	1.08	0.81	0.54
3.50	6.20	10.51	4.85	2.16
2.96	7.01	10.78	11.32	2.43
1.35	3.77	7.55	9.16	2.16
0.54	0.54	4.04	2.96	0.81

And here it is for 2012:

1.27	1.27	1.27	2.12	0.00
2.12	3.81	7.63	8.47	0.85
2.54	5.93	9.75	9.32	5.08
2.12	5.93	6.78	9.32	4.24
0.00	2.97	3.81	2.54	0.85

And here is the difference in those percentages (not a percent-increase, just the increase or decrease in the frequency for each location):

0.46	-0.89	0.19	1.31	-0.54
-1.39	-2.39	-2.89	3.62	-1.31
-0.42	-1.08	-1.04	-2.00	2.66
0.77	2.16	-0.77	0.16	2.08
-0.54	2.43	-0.23	-0.42	0.04

None of that really strikes me too strongly as a major shift in the way pitchers are pitching him. He's just not hitting as well in just about every zone, which to me indicates a more all-encompassing issue, which could just be as simple as saying he's having a bad season.