11 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

I know people dislike Mock Amateur Drafts this early, but Jonathan Mitchell and his staff consistently put out good work at MLB Dirt. Mitchell, who posts here as jcmitchell, is also part of the ESPN SweetSpot Network (like Camden Depot) covering the Marlins.

MLB Dirt: http://mlbdirt.com/2...-march-edition/

4. Orioles (J): Byron Buxton (OF – Georgia HS) "He has the best tools in the draft with 5-tool potential at a star position and the Orioles are rebuilding so a college player is not necessary when a player with Buxton’s potential is on the board. He is not quite as polished as Bubba Starling was but he is good enough that he could be taken ahead of this pick when the actual draft happens."

[BSLChrisStoner]

MLB Dirt: http://mlbdirt.com/2...-april-edition/

4th: Orioles: Kevin Gausman (RHP –LouisianaState) "Gausman has ace potential with a fastball that has been clocked at 99 mph, a potentially plus change-up, and a breaking ball that can be above-average. He has an ideal frame and could move fast through Baltimore’s system with Dylan Bundy and with Manny Machado."

[JeffLong]

Ew no. Zimmer please. Also, if Buxton falls to 3 I'll cry.

[ravens8589]

I'm glad you guys know a lot about the potential prospects in the draft because i don't really know too too much about it. I'll be sure to read up on what you guys write!

[JeremyStrain]

I'm glad you guys know a lot about the potential prospects in the draft because i don't really know too too much about it. I'll be sure to read up on what you guys write!

Don't worry...I'm suddenly feeling like I may be doing most of my draft following on this site this year.

My early-early-way-too-early to decide preference right now:

1. Giolito (if healthy and throwing in May)
2. Appel
3. Zimmer
4. Gausman
5. Zunino

Favorite I wouldn't take at #4 - Marcus Stroman RHP Duke.
Later round sleeper: Jimmy Lee - LHP Maryland.
2nd round Target (no way he falls this far, but we have no higher picks): Kevin Brady RHP Clemson.

[JeffLong]

Don't worry...I'm suddenly feeling like I may be doing most of my draft following on this site this year.

My early-early-way-too-early to decide preference right now:

1. Giolito (if healthy and throwing in May)
2. Appel
3. Zimmer
4. Gausman
5. Zunino

Favorite I wouldn't take at #4 - Marcus Stroman RHP Duke.
Later round sleeper: Jimmy Lee - LHP Maryland.
2nd round Target (no way he falls this far, but we have no higher picks): Kevin Brady RHP Clemson.

I'm kind of hoping the O's target Branden Kline ( a guy I played against in HS). Only issue is that he's likely a reliever IMO, and not like a Dan Klein dominant type either. Also, no Buxton? I would LOVE Buxton.

[JeremyStrain]

I knew someone would ask about Buxton

I just have a personal bias against 5-tool HS OF. I don't know why but I'm harder on them than most, especially the ones on the raw side. I was really against Donovan Tate a few years ago too, but I think Buxton is better than Tate. I know people that want to take him #1, but I just tend to shy away from them. He's not a terrible choice up there but talent wise the whole top 5 is bunched together pretty tight, so I would go with the high upside pitcher over the high upside OF if it were me.

[JeffLong]

I knew someone would ask about Buxton

I just have a personal bias against 5-tool HS OF. I don't know why but I'm harder on them than most, especially the ones on the raw side. I was really against Donovan Tate a few years ago too, but I think Buxton is better than Tate. I know people that want to take him #1, but I just tend to shy away from them. He's not a terrible choice up there but talent wise the whole top 5 is bunched together pretty tight, so I would go with the high upside pitcher over the high upside OF if it were me.

Fair enough. He's getting crazy comps (faster McCutchen for example) which is where the intrigue lies. I'm just not very high on Appel or Gausman - sure the stuff is great but pitching is all about control.

[JeremyStrain]

Yeah I've talked to people that love him, but as far back as I've been watching baseball there have been these sexy little HS OF that have all this athleticism and tools but only like 1 in 5 pans out no matter how highly they are touted. Some generalization on my part, but it's like a team having an organizational philosophy not to draft guys with injury history, or guys that K too much, mine is I shy away from those toolsy kids. He has a really good chance to be a great player, but I love Giolito's upside if he's healthy, and I like the safety of the college kids.

I'd even consider taking Stroman at 4 underslot and then using that savings to sign some overslots in the 3-5 range.

[JeffLong]

Yeah I've talked to people that love him, but as far back as I've been watching baseball there have been these sexy little HS OF that have all this athleticism and tools but only like 1 in 5 pans out no matter how highly they are touted. Some generalization on my part, but it's like a team having an organizational philosophy not to draft guys with injury history, or guys that K too much, mine is I shy away from those toolsy kids. He has a really good chance to be a great player, but I love Giolito's upside if he's healthy, and I like the safety of the college kids.

I'd even consider taking Stroman at 4 underslot and then using that savings to sign some overslots in the 3-5 range.

That's fair, assuming there are overslot guys worth waiting for. Nobody knows how the draft will shake out under the new rules, and it's not really safe to assume an Arrieta-like guy will fall to you in the 5th round.

That said I understand your aversion to those toolsy OF types. I like Giolito, Zimmer, Zunino or Buxton. Gotta take the best guy available, and those 4 are the best 4 in my opinion.

[JeremyStrain]

It's a hard year to gauge because it's the first in the new model, but I think you are going to see more non-signs this year because of it. The kids with another year of college ball or with schollys lined up taken late first through the third will be more inclined to go back and try again a year later, so if you're a team that saved some money in the first you might be able to buy one of those kids with a solid commitment or one that falls through the first. You won't see the same MAJOR overslots like AJ Cole or Renaudo, but you might steal a kid like Delmonico for an extra couple hundred thousand. Should be interesting to watch this year. I doubt many teams try this approach, but I'm expecting someone to take a shot at it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MLB Dirt: Final Mock Draft 6/2
http://mlbdirt.com/2...-final-edition/

4. Orioles: Kevin Gausman (RHP –LouisianaState) "The Orioles are likely going with the best player available and that is where I will go with this pick. Gausman has ace potential with a fastball that has been clocked at 99 mph, a potentially plus change-up, and a breaking ball that can be above-average. He has an ideal frame and could move fast throughBaltimore’s system with Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado. I simply do not see Zunino as an option here and I think the Orioles would love for one of Buxton or Correa to fall to them here."