109 replies to this topic

[BSLMikeLowe]

Is anyone starting to think that this is a more realistic possibility? I'll say this at least....if it doesn't happen it will have cost a lot of money to finally drive a stake in the heart of maglev.

[NewMarketSean]

I'm surprised they invested so much in the study. Still a very slim possibility that this eve comes close to happening. Hogan does seem to be more onboard with it than any other transit option, like the red line.

[RShack]

We need to get back to doing cool things again... I really hope this happens... it probably comes down to how much money they can get the Japanese and Congress to cough up...

[Matt_P]

We need to get back to doing cool things again... I really hope this happens... it probably comes down to how much money they can get the Japanese and Congress to cough up...

 

Japan will cough up a lot. If it's a success, then there will be demand to expand the line up to Boston. Makes sense to spend $5B to net $100B.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Japan will cough up a lot. If it's a success, then there will be demand to expand the line up to Boston. Makes sense to spend $5B to net $100B.

 

Seems like a high-risk gamble to me, even moreso considering Japan's current debt-to-GDP ratio (I assume it is the gov't that is putting up this money). $5 billion might not seem like much comparatively, but I can't imagine the folks over there would be pleased with pouring that kind of cash into a project for the US without a better certainty of a return.

[PatrickDougherty]

Seems like a high-risk gamble to me, even moreso considering Japan's current debt-to-GDP ratio (I assume it is the gov't that is putting up this money). $5 billion might not seem like much comparatively, but I can't imagine the folks over there would be pleased with pouring that kind of cash into a project for the US without a better certainty of a return.

I think their promised $5B contribution to the project only comes if people here find a way to match it. I'm sure they'll see a return on that initial $5B, so it's not a losing bet in the first place, it just also has the potential to encourage more MagLev development, which would bring even bigger returns on the initial outlay.

[RShack]

Seems like a high-risk gamble to me, even moreso considering Japan's current debt-to-GDP ratio (I assume it is the gov't that is putting up this money). $5 billion might not seem like much comparatively, but I can't imagine the folks over there would be pleased with pouring that kind of cash into a project for the US without a better certainty of a return.

 

I don't think folks in Japan get upset about budget stuff like some Americans do lately...

 

Plus, the debt-to-GDP fuss can reasonably be viewed as mainly a recent American thing...  folks in most other countries that print their own money are quite reasonably much more concerned about inflation and growth...  (since the Euro, Europe is different... except for Germany and France, the rest of them don't have control of printing money anymore, and that makes debt an entirely different ballgame...)

[BSLMikeLowe]

I think their promised $5B contribution to the project only comes if people here find a way to match it. I'm sure they'll see a return on that initial $5B, so it's not a losing bet in the first place, it just also has the potential to encourage more MagLev development, which would bring even bigger returns on the initial outlay.

 

No question about your first sentence. The US has to find a way to put up its share for the DC/Balt segment. I'm talking about the likelihood that it would be extended all the way up the NE corridor, even if that first segment gets built and is relatively successful and generates some return for Japan. I just think a whole NE system, and that's where the real ROI would be for Japan, seems like a risky bet.

[BSLMikeLowe]

I don't think folks in Japan get upset about budget stuff like some Americans do lately...

 

Plus, the debt-to-GDP fuss can reasonably be viewed as mainly a recent American thing...  folks in most other countries that print their own money are quite reasonably much more concerned about inflation and growth...  (since the Euro, Europe is different... except for Germany and France, the rest of them don't have control of printing money anymore, and that makes debt an entirely different ballgame...)

 

I haven't traveled to Japan in 20 years so I don't really know the feelings of the citizens, but considering that ratio, coupled with a rapidly aging population, they might want to be concerned about that.

[RShack]

No question about your first sentence. The US has to find a way to put up its share for the DC/Balt segment. I'm talking about the likelihood that it would be extended all the way up the NE corridor, even if that first segment gets built and is relatively successful and generates some return for Japan. I just think a whole NE system, and that's where the real ROI would be for Japan, seems like a risky bet.

 

Well, Congress would need to be behind it... and that probably depends on the make-up of Congress at that time...

 

The NE corridor is the perfect place for it though... doing it would be entirely sensible... it's just a matter of who's running Congress when the time comes...

[RShack]

I haven't traveled to Japan in 20 years so I don't really know the feelings of the citizens, but considering that ratio, coupled with a rapidly aging population, they might want to be concerned about that.

 

We've been hearing that from certain quarters for a while now... but as long as you're printing your own money, what really matters is inflation and growth... Japan has been stuck for decades now by not having enough of either one... if they behave with austerity, they'd just be making that worse, not better...

[BSLMikeLowe]

We've been hearing that from certain quarters for a while now... but as long as you're printing your own money, what really matters is inflation and growth... Japan has been stuck for decades now by not having enough of either one... if they behave with austerity, they'd just be making that worse, not better...

 

I mostly agree. My question is simply whether or not investing in a major US infrastructure project, given our current political climate and overall aversion to improving our infrastructure, is a wise investment that will ultimately lead to any growth in Japan.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Any idea how long this would take to build and put into place?

[PatrickDougherty]

I don't think folks in Japan get upset about budget stuff like some Americans do lately...

 

Plus, the debt-to-GDP fuss can reasonably be viewed as mainly a recent American thing...  folks in most other countries that print their own money are quite reasonably much more concerned about inflation and growth...  (since the Euro, Europe is different... except for Germany and France, the rest of them don't have control of printing money anymore, and that makes debt an entirely different ballgame...)

Yo, I think Japan has economists too.

[RShack]

I mostly agree. My question is simply whether or not investing in a major US infrastructure project, given our current political climate and overall aversion to improving our infrastructure, is a wise investment that will ultimately lead to any growth in Japan.

 

Oh, that's actually a great question... and you could reasonably look at it either way...

 

On one hand, you could say that it's a bad bet, for all the obvious reasons...

 

On the other hand, you could also say that we've been letting infrastructure rot for decades now... and that we can't keep that up forever because the place is falling apart... which means the day will come when the Infrastructure Faucet gets turned on again... and if that happens, they could be arranging to be in the perfect place at the perfect time... and the timing is somewhat flexible... the Infrastructure Faucet doesn't need to get turned on at any particular date and time, it's just that they need to be well positioned whenever it does get turned on again...

 

So, as with many things, it probably comes down to whether you're an optimist or a pessimist  

[RShack]

Yo, I think Japan has economists too.

 

But it's not mainly economist who make that issue out to be a huge deal... economist mainly worry about decision-makers focusing on that too much and making growth-stifling austerity decisions based on irrational worries about vapor-debt and non-existent inflation....

[RShack]

Any idea how long this would take to build and put into place?

 

Beats me... probably a million years for planning and permits... then about a year to actually build it  

[NewMarketSean]

2030 is probably the earliest they'll be offering rides if everything went according to plan.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Beats me... probably a million years for planning and permits... then about a year to actually build it  

 

No way it would take just a year to build it.

 

I'm thinking maybe my sarcasm meter is slightly off?

[NewMarketSean]

No way it would take just a year to build it.

 

I'm thinking maybe my sarcasm meter is slightly off?

Yeah, I thought the same thing.

 

No way this thing goes from shovel ready to offering rides in less than 5 years.