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Camden Chat: What Could Have Been?


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 December 2011 - 09:28 PM

Camden Chat: http://www.camdencha...idnt-fall-apart

Lots of understandable negativity out there, but this piece from Camden Chat reminds of the optimism that did exist going into 2011. I was wearing the orange colored glasses when I picked the Birds to win 83 games. My main source of optimism was tied to the younger core coming back. The pitching was awesome after Showalter took over in early August '10. I did not go into last year think the pitching would maintain that level over the course of a 162 game season. I did anticipate the pitching to be better than it was.

We seem to be heading towards a 2012 season where optimism will be lower than where last year started, but the ultimate results for '12 have a chance to be what we expected for '11.

The O's need more 'inventory', but I still believe in the talent of the younger starters. If they take a leap, the O's can be competitive (flirting with .500). Obviously it can be argued how much that matters.

#2 Luke Jackson

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Posted 17 December 2011 - 09:37 PM

First of all Chris, thanks for inviting me to your message board...good stuff.

Before writing this, I think the Orioles will be about a 70 win team for '12, which right about where they were when the season ended. The off-season moves haven't done much, if anything, to change that outlook. Dana Eveland and Wada could very well end up in Norfolk for large chunks of the season, and Teagarden is a typical light-hitting backup catcher. However, I did like the Matt Antonelli move. Solid under-the-radar pickup; I believe Camden Depot, a site that I respect quite a bit, had him rated as their No. 1 MiL FA (although being the top MiL FA isn't saying a whole lot, but whatever) and Jonah Keri mentioned on Grantland that he liked the move. He'll likely see some time at third this year and maybe a little bit at second. All in all, the moves so far have been inconsequential. I don't see what moves on the horizon could improve the Orioles significantly. We've heard Chen Wei-Yin connected to Baltimore, but I don't know if Chen is close to choosing a team and if the Orioles did get him, we really don't know how he'd contribute in the AL East coming over from Japan, but apparently he has a much better shot to stick in an AL East rotation than Wada.

That leaves us with hoping the "core" group improves significantly in '12 for something like a 75ish win season. Wieters has a real shot to break out offensively; I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 26-28 homers next year and posted something like a .275/.340/.475 line. I think Jones is what he is -- a passable defensive center fielder (how much longer he's passable out there is a question) whose plate discipline and pitch recognition leave much to be desired, but his power and arm help make up for his faults. Four full years into his big league career, I see a second division center fielder with a shot to be a first division guy for a couple years during his career in which he posts a ~.500 SLG. I don't think Jones will ever walk an average amount, but I think a key for him will be learning to get into more hitter's counts so his above-average raw hitting ability and power can manifest themselves more than they have so far. Maybe this happens in 2012; I don't know. Markakis should bounce back some even though his decline in power has made us all gray a bit. Markakis' expected bounce-back hopefully would help cancel out expected regression from JJ Hardy. I sort of doubt JJ hits 30 homers in 129 games again, but hey, I've been wrong before. Hardy should be strong defensively up the middle once again, which will aid the O's pitchers quite a bit since none of them are particularly adept at missing bats. So I have Wieters taking a significant step forward, Markakis bouncing back some, Hardy regressing some and Jones pretty much staying where he is. Wieters was probably somewhere between a four and five win player last year, so it's not inconceivable that he gets into that six-win range next year. (Cue Bust Label Here.) That'd be the big upgrade here, I think.

As far as the pitching, the biggest issue with any of these guys is that they don't really miss a lot of bats and the defense behind them was one of the worst in the league last year, if not the worst. We don't know how Chris Davis will take to third (although Antonelli is pretty good there, I've read) and we're not positive how Reynolds will look at first for 162 games (can't be any worse than his defensive performance last year). From my naked eye -- and I'm not totally sure what the numbers say on this -- the range in the outfield leaves a ton to be desired. So this is a big hurdle for the pitchers to clear, in my opinion -- especially Britton, a big ground ball pitcher whose confidence could've been a bit shaken considering the defense behind him, especially from the guy who was to his right for most of the year. Ignoring the bullpen for now because we don't even know who half of the pen will be next year, I'll focus on the starters and try to peg who are the best bets for improvement.

The rotation as it currently stands is likely Jeremy Guthrie, Zach Britton, T. Wada, Jake Arrieta, and either Dana Eveland or Tommy Hunter. Have to imagine Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman begin the year in Norfolk, with Bergesen probably taking a shuttle bus between Baltimore and Norfolk throughout the year. Of the six I have in the running for the starting rotation, my guesses for the best bets for improvement are Britton and Arrieta, but Arrieta has a profile in which he may head to the pen sooner rather than later, where he can max out his FB/SL combo. But it's only fair to give Jake a shot in the rotation with his bone spur removed; I'm looking forward to see him pitch fully healthy. Britton will likely have to miss a few more bats to have a shot to eventually settle in as a fringe first division starter in the AL East, but as I've said, a good infield defense is vital for him. Extremely tough to get a feel for any of the young starters' future, but I think it's unlikely that any of these starters are first division guys next year. Seems unlikely that Britton is a first division starter in '12. As I said before, I think that'll be a more gradual process. Though it's hard not to improve from the starters' abysmal ERA last year, I can't see significant enough improvement here to make a big dent in the W-L record, but Matusz not having a 10.00+ ERA for 10 or so starts would bring down that starters' ERA.

After going through that, I still see the O's as a 70-win squad in '12, unless something unexpected happens, like a star turn from Jones, Chris Davis unlocking his power or Brian Matusz becoming a productive member of the rotation for a lot of innings. So it goes.
@BSLLukeJackson

#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 December 2011 - 03:33 PM

First of all Chris, thanks for inviting me to your message board...good stuff.

That leaves us with hoping the "core" group improves significantly in '12 for something like a 75ish win season. Wieters has a real shot to break out offensively; I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 26-28 homers next year and posted something like a .275/.340/.475 line. I think Jones is what he is -- a passable defensive center fielder (how much longer he's passable out there is a question) whose plate discipline and pitch recognition leave much to be desired, but his power and arm help make up for his faults. Four full years into his big league career, I see a second division center fielder with a shot to be a first division guy for a couple years during his career in which he posts a ~.500 SLG. I don't think Jones will ever walk an average amount, but I think a key for him will be learning to get into more hitter's counts so his above-average raw hitting ability and power can manifest themselves more than they have so far. Maybe this happens in 2012; I don't know. Markakis should bounce back some even though his decline in power has made us all gray a bit. Markakis' expected bounce-back hopefully would help cancel out expected regression from JJ Hardy. I sort of doubt JJ hits 30 homers in 129 games again, but hey, I've been wrong before. Hardy should be strong defensively up the middle once again, which will aid the O's pitchers quite a bit since none of them are particularly adept at missing bats. So I have Wieters taking a significant step forward, Markakis bouncing back some, Hardy regressing some and Jones pretty much staying where he is. Wieters was probably somewhere between a four and five win player last year, so it's not inconceivable that he gets into that six-win range next year. (Cue Bust Label Here.) That'd be the big upgrade here, I think.

As far as the pitching, the biggest issue with any of these guys is that they don't really miss a lot of bats and the defense behind them was one of the worst in the league last year, if not the worst. We don't know how Chris Davis will take to third (although Antonelli is pretty good there, I've read) and we're not positive how Reynolds will look at first for 162 games (can't be any worse than his defensive performance last year). From my naked eye -- and I'm not totally sure what the numbers say on this -- the range in the outfield leaves a ton to be desired. So this is a big hurdle for the pitchers to clear, in my opinion -- especially Britton, a big ground ball pitcher whose confidence could've been a bit shaken considering the defense behind him, especially from the guy who was to his right for most of the year. Ignoring the bullpen for now because we don't even know who half of the pen will be next year, I'll focus on the starters and try to peg who are the best bets for improvement.

The rotation as it currently stands is likely Jeremy Guthrie, Zach Britton, T. Wada, Jake Arrieta, and either Dana Eveland or Tommy Hunter. Have to imagine Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman begin the year in Norfolk, with Bergesen probably taking a shuttle bus between Baltimore and Norfolk throughout the year. Of the six I have in the running for the starting rotation, my guesses for the best bets for improvement are Britton and Arrieta, but Arrieta has a profile in which he may head to the pen sooner rather than later, where he can max out his FB/SL combo. But it's only fair to give Jake a shot in the rotation with his bone spur removed; I'm looking forward to see him pitch fully healthy. Britton will likely have to miss a few more bats to have a shot to eventually settle in as a fringe first division starter in the AL East, but as I've said, a good infield defense is vital for him. Extremely tough to get a feel for any of the young starters' future, but I think it's unlikely that any of these starters are first division guys next year. Seems unlikely that Britton is a first division starter in '12. As I said before, I think that'll be a more gradual process. Though it's hard not to improve from the starters' abysmal ERA last year, I can't see significant enough improvement here to make a big dent in the W-L record, but Matusz not having a 10.00+ ERA for 10 or so starts would bring down that starters' ERA.

After going through that, I still see the O's as a 70-win squad in '12, unless something unexpected happens, like a star turn from Jones, Chris Davis unlocking his power or Brian Matusz becoming a productive member of the rotation for a lot of innings. So it goes.


Luke, glad to have you here. Enjoyed reading your thoughts above, and on Twitter this past year. For anyone that does not know, Luke runs the quality site Maryland Pro Sports (http://www.mdprosports.com/) and has been a guest of Pete Gilbert on WBAL.

As of right now, I see things very similar to yourself. While part of me still expects some larger roster transformation prior to the ST, it seems pretty apparent that 2012 will again be about the core group that is here. I like a lot of the pieces which are on the roster. I think the frustration for many of us is knowing that for whatever individual pieces we like - as a collective they are not good enough.

Seemingly that would leave the O's with two logical choices. 1) Add talent around the group which is here. (Which would raise the salary, and might not be enough to make a difference anyway), or 2) Move some of the existing pieces for additional depth and years of prospect(s) control.

Right now, the O's are somewhat going down a third path, where they just continue as is. I might be a bit more optimistic of what the existing talent is capable of than you (I could see them winning 75-81 games), but I agree that it is fair to question how much a .500 season would matter anyways. That said, after being overly bullish on the O's the past two years, I might be better off taking your lead, and expecting 70 wins (a level not reached in 5 years?) and being pleasantly surprised if the total surges above that.




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