239 replies to this topic

[RichardZ]

In Boston, Chen went 5 ip, allowing 5 hits, 3 er, with 3 bb's, and 4 k's.

In his 5 starts, he has gone 5.2, 5.1, 6.1, 7, and 5 innings.
He has allowed 2, 2, 1, 1, and 3 er's. He has walked 1, 2, 3, 2, and 3 batters.
He has struck out at-least 4 in every start.

What is the game plan you would give him today, against this Texas lineup?

I know you tweeted (jokingly?) about this earlier, but I'd pitch around/intentionally walk Josh Hamilton every at-bat. Don't let him kill you. He himself produced 8 of the 10 Texas runs last night.

That lineup is still very good without Hamilton, but it becomes a lot easier to deal with if you limit his at-bats.

Which is why you'll get killed if you walk Hamilton every time up. He's not going to hit 4 homers every night. You can't be afraid to pitch to him. Every pitch he hit was up and out over the plate. They just need to pitch him better. He'll still hurt you now and then but you have to deal with him in that lineup.

[You Play to Win the Game]

In general, I agree with you RZ, but Chen doesn't seem like a good match-up for someone who is locked in right now like Hamilton. There are good hitters up and down the line up, but sometimes there is nothing wrong with pitching around the hot hands.

[SportsGuy]

Which is why you'll get killed if you walk Hamilton every time up. He's not going to hit 4 homers every night. You can't be afraid to pitch to him. Every pitch he hit was up and out over the plate. They just need to pitch him better. He'll still hurt you now and then but you have to deal with him in that lineup.

Make good pitches and you get him...Bmat struck him out twice the other night.

You don't be stupid about it but you if you can make good pitches, you will get him out quite often.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Beautiful start today vs. Texas. He gave the O's exactly what they needed.

[Chris B]

Beautiful start today vs. Texas. He gave the O's exactly what they needed.

Only had to use 2 bullpen guys too. Despite the short rest, let's hope Hunter can give them some innings so the bullpen is all ready to go for Tampa this weekend.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Has now gone 7+ in 3 of his last 4 outings. Still seems to tire pretty quickly around 85 pitches. Love that it seems like he always has a game-plan. He has not looked intimidated at all. Perhaps by hiding the ball effectively, it makes 90-92 look harder than it is. Gets a lot of fastballs by hitters.

Season: 4-0, 2.45 era, 44 ip, 39 hits, 3 hr's, 14 bb's, 32 k's, .652 OPS against, 0.51 G/F

[Adam Wolff]

I don't think anyone could have predicted Chen would perform this well.

And he's faced same pretty good offenses; NY twice, Texas, Boston, LAA. He's not just performing well against the Oaklands and Seattles of the world.

It's starting to look like a pretty savvy signing.

[Mackus]

He seems to be getting better and better with each start. I like that progression! Right now he's earning both him and Wada's salaries, so it makes Wada's absolute zero a bit more palatable.

It'll be interesting to see how he holds up physically as the season wears on.

[LanceRinker]

Wei-Yin Chen turned in another impressive performance last night, against the New York Yankees no less and you have to start wondering – is Chen a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender?

His skills were never in question when he was signed by the Orioles, but many were questioning his durability because of a leg injury that hampered him and the quality of his pitches during the 2011 season in the NPB League (Nippon Professional Baseball).

With that being said, Chen has not allowed more than three earned runs in a game in seven starts and the Orioles are 6-1 in his seven starts; they lost his debut against the Yankees because the defense made some costly errors. He is 4-0 overall (8th in AL) with a 2.45 ERA (5th in AL) and has turned in four quality starts out of the seven he has made.

As far as the Rookie of the Year is concerned though, it appears that Chen’s only real competition will come from other rookie starters.

Among rookie starters, Chen is second in innings pitched (44), third in WHIP (1.20) and second in ERA (2.45).

If Chen were to continue dominating, and stayed atop the leaderboards, over the other rookies this season he would become the first Orioles player to win the Rookie of the Year award since Gregg Olson did in 1989.

What do you think? Will Chen keep up his dominating performances with each successive start or do you think he’ll begin to falter?

[You Play to Win the Game]

Wei-Yin Chen turned in another impressive performance last night, against the New York Yankees no less and you have to start wondering – is Chen a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender?

His skills were never in question when he was signed by the Orioles, but many were questioning his durability because of a leg injury that hampered him and the quality of his pitches during the 2011 season in the NPB League (Nippon Professional Baseball).

With that being said, Chen has not allowed more than three earned runs in a game in seven starts and the Orioles are 6-1 in his seven starts; they lost his debut against the Yankees because the defense made some costly errors. He is 4-0 overall (8th in AL) with a 2.45 ERA (5th in AL) and has turned in four quality starts out of the seven he has made.

As far as the Rookie of the Year is concerned though, it appears that Chen’s only real competition will come from other rookie starters.

Among rookie starters, Chen is second in innings pitched (44), third in WHIP (1.20) and second in ERA (2.45).

If Chen were to continue dominating, and stayed atop the leaderboards, over the other rookies this season he would become the first Orioles player to win the Rookie of the Year award since Gregg Olson did in 1989.

What do you think? Will Chen keep up his dominating performances with each successive start or do you think he’ll begin to falter?

I think he's got a chance. I'm not crazy about his .48 GB/FB ratio, especially given that his IFBB is normal, but the eye test says that despite that, he's not giving up good contact. His FIP is 3.41, so I don't think this is too fluky. My biggest concern is stamina as the season progresses, especially on the ridiculous hot and humid days in July and August in Baltimore.

Others I think have a real shot are: Yu Darvish, Mike Trout, Jesus Montero & Matt Moore (You gotta think he'll get it together soon). Also, Henderson Alvarez has been very good so far for Toronto - is he rookie eligible?

[LanceRinker]

I think he's got a chance. I'm not crazy about his .48 GB/FB ratio, especially given that his IFBB is normal, but the eye test says that despite that, he's not giving up good contact. His FIP is 3.41, so I don't think this is too fluky. My biggest concern is stamina as the season progresses, especially on the ridiculous hot and humid days in July and August in Baltimore.

Others I think have a real shot are: Yu Darvish, Mike Trout, Jesus Montero & Matt Moore (You gotta think he'll get it together soon). Also, Henderson Alvarez has been very good so far for Toronto - is he rookie eligible?

Alvarez isn't eligible since he pitched 63.2 innings last season (the cut off is 45 innings or 45 days on the active roster).

Trout also isn't eligible because he had over 90 ab's last season - he finished 2011 with 40 GP and 123 ab's.

But yeah, he's got a legit shot in my mind if the summer heat and humidity doesn't kill him - especially if we're still in a pennant race at the time.

Personally I think Yu Darvish is his biggest competition - not only does Yu have the superior "stuff" but he also has the name recognition/popularity/personality as well as playing on the best team in baseball.

It's not impossible Chen could stake his claim to the award though if he lasts through the season - he would be competing against tougher competion overall than Yu would (IMO).

[You Play to Win the Game]

Alvarez isn't eligible since he pitched 63.2 innings last season (the cut off is 45 innings or 45 days on the active roster).

Trout also isn't eligible because he had over 90 ab's last season - he finished 2011 with 40 GP and 123 ab's.

But yeah, he's got a legit shot in my mind if the summer heat and humidity doesn't kill him - especially if we're still in a pennant race at the time.

Personally I think Yu Darvish is his biggest competition - not only does Yu have the superior "stuff" but he also has the name recognition/popularity/personality as well as playing on the best team in baseball.

It's not impossible Chen could stake his claim to the award though if he lasts through the season - he would be competing against tougher competion overall than Yu would (IMO).

Thanks for the rules on rookie eligibility. Surprised I couldn't easily find it on Google.

Anyway, I agree - it's probably between him and Yu, and you make a good point about the competition in the AL East vs. the AL West.

[LanceRinker]

Thanks for the rules on rookie eligibility. Surprised I couldn't easily find it on Google.

Anyway, I agree - it's probably between him and Yu, and you make a good point about the competition in the AL East vs. the AL West.

Yeah, but unfortunately Rookie voting (as is just about any award voting body in baseball) is mostly subjective and sometimes individual voters will vote for players because of name recognition coupled with moderate success - especially if it's a tight race all the way through. The player who deserves to win doesn't always win..

[JeffLong]

I don't think anyone could have predicted Chen would perform this well.

And he's faced same pretty good offenses; NY twice, Texas, Boston, LAA. He's not just performing well against the Oaklands and Seattles of the world.

It's starting to look like a pretty savvy signing.

Ahem.

So before the season I projected him (along with many other bloggers) though I was more ambitious than most. My post is here: http://warehousewort...i-yin-chen.html

I had him at 4.05 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the season. So far my walk and k rates are pretty much spot on. Also, his FIP is sitting around 3.4 and his xFIP at 4.4.


I'm pretty proud of it so far because my projection was doubted by many fans, bloggers, etc so this is like that first - I actually know what the hell I'm doing - moment I've had for my blog. That said, he's only 40 IP into the season and a lot can change between now and October.

[SportsGuy]

Early success isn't a surprise....the 18% swingingstr% is the biggest thing for me thus far.

But, as has been said, let's see how he does as the season progresses and the innings pile up.

Several of his early starts have been on the same rest that he experienced in Japan...that's important and unlikely to continue as the season goes on.

[JeffLong]

Early success isn't a surprise....the 18% swingingstr% is the biggest thing for me thus far.

But, as has been said, let's see how he does as the season progresses and the innings pile up.

Several of his early starts have been on the same rest that he experienced in Japan...that's important and unlikely to continue as the season goes on.

The interesting thing for me is that there were so many confounding variables in his arrival to Baltimore and projection of what he'd do. We see a lot of guys succeed early because of deception or something like that.

Chen won the ERA title in 2009 with a 1.59 ERA (better than Darvish) just before NPB switched the baseball it uses. He was also hurt last season and saw his velocity dip to the high 80s as he pitched through pain for much of the season. Just a lot of confounding variables. I look at it and say, ok, a US prospect with his stuff (good offspeed stuff, low 90s fastball that can get up to 94/95) - we would expect him to do how well?

[Can_of_corn]

Alvarez isn't eligible since he pitched 63.2 innings last season (the cut off is 45 innings or 45 days on the active roster).

Trout also isn't eligible because he had over 90 ab's last season - he finished 2011 with 40 GP and 123 ab's.

But yeah, he's got a legit shot in my mind if the summer heat and humidity doesn't kill him - especially if we're still in a pennant race at the time.

Personally I think Yu Darvish is his biggest competition - not only does Yu have the superior "stuff" but he also has the name recognition/popularity/personality as well as playing on the best team in baseball.

It's not impossible Chen could stake his claim to the award though if he lasts through the season - he would be competing against tougher competion overall than Yu would (IMO).

http://eye-on-baseba... ... 2/33632922

Three weeks after it was revealed Trout wouldn't be eligible for the award next year because of a technicality, Major League Baseball ruled him a rookie for 2012.

The problem was that Trout received credit for service time while he was actually in the minors because he was on option for fewer than 20 days before being recalled, pushing him over the limit of 45 days on a major league roster for rookie status. While he has 55 days of service time, Trout was on the active 25-man roster for just 38 days, so MLB ruled he would indeed be considered a rookie for 2012.

[LanceRinker]

http://eye-on-baseba... ... 2/33632922

Three weeks after it was revealed Trout wouldn't be eligible for the award next year because of a technicality, Major League Baseball ruled him a rookie for 2012.

The problem was that Trout received credit for service time while he was actually in the minors because he was on option for fewer than 20 days before being recalled, pushing him over the limit of 45 days on a major league roster for rookie status. While he has 55 days of service time, Trout was on the active 25-man roster for just 38 days, so MLB ruled he would indeed be considered a rookie for 2012.

Interesting - I don't remember seeing that. However, I have looked at the MLB rulebook for rookie eligibility one more time and me stating that 90 ab's was the cutoff for position players was inaccurate. Thanks for clearing this one up.

The rule is actually :

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

[You Play to Win the Game]

http://eye-on-baseba... ... 2/33632922

Interesting - I don't remember seeing that. However, I have looked at the MLB rulebook for rookie eligibility one more time and me stating that 90 ab's was the cutoff for position players was inaccurate. Thanks for clearing this one up.

The rule is actually :

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

Again, thanks - to both of you. I'll remember to throw some rep your way once that feature is available.

[Can_of_corn]

NP. I just happened to remember twitter talk stating that the Trout ruling had been overturned and did a quick google search.