87 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Yeah, a little... but not leaps and bounds really, except for the power.

 

Yes.  Leaps and bounds.  Nick's career line is 294/362/450.  Take out his career year in 2008 and it's still 289/354/443.

[You Play to Win the Game]

What?  No it doesn't.

 

That's a 730 OPS.  Markakis had a 756 in 2011.  Every other season he's been over 800.    70 points isn't close.

 

Also, I don't think there is really a great chance that Hoes has an OBP 80 points higher than his BA.  He has zero power, it's nearly impossible to have less power than he does.  So pitcher's are going to attack him, and he'll draw fewer walks.

 

Yep. I was mis-calculating Oriole Report's post in my head. I thought it was close to .800. That's my bad.

[mweb08]

No worries man, I wouldn't expect a banker to be able to add.

[You Play to Win the Game]

No worries man, I wouldn't expect a banker to be able to add.

 

Sounds like at least one person has learned from this recession!

[mweb08]

Sounds like at least one person has learned from this recession!

Haha

[BobPhelan]

Also, I don't think there is really a great chance that Hoes has an OBP 80 points higher than his BA. He has zero power, it's nearly impossible to have less power than he does. So pitcher's are going to attack him, and he'll draw fewer walks.

Yeah I was doing some quick math. Maybe the average is higher, maybe the OBP is a little lower but I have faith in his ability to get on base. I think the power is about right, 20-30 doubles not much else.

[Mackus]

Yeah I was doing some quick math. Maybe the average is higher, maybe the OBP is a little lower but I have faith in his ability to get on base. I think the power is about right, 20-30 doubles not much else.

 

I think you're calling for more power than he is capable of.  He's never had a 110 ISO in the minors.  He'll very likely be under 100 in the majors.  His OBP has been about 80-90 points higher than his OBP (95 this year) in the minors.  I expect that to go down as well, probably a touch above league average (65).

 

I don't doubt that he'll be able to get his hits, I expect he should be able to hit somewhere in the 270-280 range at minimum and eventually probably closer to 300.  I also don't doubt that he will never have any power, yet alone even average power, he'll hang around a 100 ISO, especially in the early going.  I think the major tossup is if he can continue to draw so many walks.  I think it's reasonable to expect that he will continue to draw a ton of walks and have a good OBP but at the same time it's also reasonable to expect that due to his complete lack of any pop that pitchers will attack him hard in the majors and his walk rate will plummet since he'll see so many more strikes. 

 

If he's only got a 50 point split above his BA to his OBP, then he's not going to have much if any offensive value.  If he's got an 80 point split, then his bat will play despite his Olive Oyl power, though he'll likely never be a real asset offensively, just passable.

[JeremyStrain]

I think you're calling for more power than he is capable of.  He's never had a 110 ISO in the minors.  He'll very likely be under 100 in the majors.  His OBP has been about 80-90 points higher than his OBP (95 this year) in the minors.  I expect that to go down as well, probably a touch above league average (65).

 

I don't doubt that he'll be able to get his hits, I expect he should be able to hit somewhere in the 270-280 range at minimum and eventually probably closer to 300.  I also don't doubt that he will never have any power, yet alone even average power, he'll hang around a 100 ISO, especially in the early going.  I think the major tossup is if he can continue to draw so many walks.  I think it's reasonable to expect that he will continue to draw a ton of walks and have a good OBP but at the same time it's also reasonable to expect that due to his complete lack of any pop that pitchers will attack him hard in the majors and his walk rate will plummet since he'll see so many more strikes. 

 

If he's only got a 50 point split above his BA to his OBP, then he's not going to have much if any offensive value.  If he's got an 80 point split, then his bat will play despite his Olive Oyl power, though he'll likely never be a real asset offensively, just passable.

 

Sounds about right to me. I always saw him as a .280/.330/.350 kinda guy if things worked out. Don't like his speed or defense so much that they make me overlook other things. And I say this as a local guy that really hoped he did better, and has seen him a ton. Could be a good bench guy, take over the Dickerson role.