Teams and players both have large incentives to sign. If a team is unwilling to pay close to what a player is worth, the player will bolt and look for a better oppotunity. It may not be the same money as if there were no issues, but it is not going to be bare bone minimum. Players tend to be a pretty overconfidant bunch, so anything viewed as a low ball offer will be an issue.
Yeah you aren't wrong. Part of it is like the more things change, the more they stay the same, and I think part of it is that the players and advisors haven't really accepted that things HAVE changed a little bit now with the draft pick penalty.
Getting $8-10m just isn't going to happen with the penalties, a more realistic approach would be to figure out what the difference is between slot for a team's draft up to the penalty range, and that will begin to be the point of negotiation. From there you will see the same stuff like you were talking about.
I'm not trying to say Appel is only going to get $1m if he goes after a certain pick, but I think they are going to have to learn that with that penalty looming large, teams just aren't going to overpay like they have in the past. Even teams with the extra picks and therefore extra money can go a bit higher than others, but aren't going to dole out the kind of money Appel was looking for.
In the case of SM, I think the injury is going to impact things more than the demands themselves. I've heard between 1.5-2.5 somewhere would get him signed, which is reasonable for a team with extra picks and money, but the shoulder "tightness" and being shut down has teams on red alert, and after guys like Brackman, I think there is a lot more trepidation to throw that kind of money around now since there is a limit on spending, where as before it was just money.
I wouldn't be surprised to see no one reach on him out of injury concern, and then someone take a flier later that he won't sign. It's just a risk if that tightness turns out to require surgery and he misses time next season as well. There's an outside shot, depending on how bad the injury is, and if he knows it, that he could sign for much less than predicted if he doesn't get the offer he wants. I'd LOVE to see his medicals, but from what I hear, no one is releasing them for the arm, just for the minor back issue. So buyer beware big time on that one.