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2013 MLB Draft


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#61 Luke Jackson

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 01:48 PM

My latest for BSL focuses on four college arms that the Orioles could be targeting with one of their early picks. http://bit.ly/11Coi05 I focus on Andrew Thurman, Marco Gonzales, Aaron Blair and Alex Gonzalez in this piece. I'll be doing another piece shortly, which will include stuff on Chris Anderson, Alex Balog and college hitters Hunter Dozier and Aaron Judge.

 

Thoughts and comments are welcome.


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#62 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 02:06 PM

Nice read Luke, thanks for this!   



#63 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 08:28 AM

Those days are over. You go later, you get less money. The injury he's facing could easily cut into next season, which means he goes even later next season. He has no leverage.

 

Not exactly.

See Appel.

 

If a player sees himself as a true top tier talent, then they will go for more money and once you get out of the first 10 picks...money drops precipitously and there is not much to gain by signing at that point.



#64 JeremyStrain

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 08:56 AM

Not exactly.

See Appel.

 

If a player sees himself as a true top tier talent, then they will go for more money and once you get out of the first 10 picks...money drops precipitously and there is not much to gain by signing at that point.

 

Yeah, but then the trickle down from there, not signing, being labeled a difficult sign, and dealing with that the next year. Now he's a senior, he doesn't have a deadline to sign like everyone else and could drag it out until the draft next year.

 

Do you think he'll get the kind of money he was looking for last year? The you can't draft anyone else because I ate your entire budget money?

 

I'm watching him really closely this year because I think it's going to kinda set a precedent for how things things are going to go in the "new CBA era". I know the Cubs are in on him big, and I think HOU isn't as big on him as they seem, but it'll be interesting to see if someone is willing to give him crazy numbers and lose a pick. Once agents/players realize that teams are absolutely NOT going to sacrifice picks in future years to sign them, that will limit the asking price of these players. There's a little game of chicken going on for now though, I'm interested to see who swerves first.


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#65 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 09:48 AM

Yeah, but then the trickle down from there, not signing, being labeled a difficult sign, and dealing with that the next year. Now he's a senior, he doesn't have a deadline to sign like everyone else and could drag it out until the draft next year.

 

Do you think he'll get the kind of money he was looking for last year? The you can't draft anyone else because I ate your entire budget money?

 

I'm watching him really closely this year because I think it's going to kinda set a precedent for how things things are going to go in the "new CBA era". I know the Cubs are in on him big, and I think HOU isn't as big on him as they seem, but it'll be interesting to see if someone is willing to give him crazy numbers and lose a pick. Once agents/players realize that teams are absolutely NOT going to sacrifice picks in future years to sign them, that will limit the asking price of these players. There's a little game of chicken going on for now though, I'm interested to see who swerves first.

 

Teams and players both have large incentives to sign.  If a team is unwilling to pay close to what a player is worth, the player will bolt and look for a better oppotunity.  It may not be the same money as if there were no issues, but it is not going to be bare bone minimum.  Players tend to be a pretty overconfidant bunch, so anything viewed as a low ball offer will be an issue.



#66 JeremyStrain

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 10:02 AM

Teams and players both have large incentives to sign.  If a team is unwilling to pay close to what a player is worth, the player will bolt and look for a better oppotunity.  It may not be the same money as if there were no issues, but it is not going to be bare bone minimum.  Players tend to be a pretty overconfidant bunch, so anything viewed as a low ball offer will be an issue.

 

Yeah you aren't wrong. Part of it is like the more things change, the more they stay the same, and I think part of it is that the players and advisors haven't really accepted that things HAVE changed a little bit now with the draft pick penalty.

 

Getting $8-10m just isn't going to happen with the penalties, a more realistic approach would be to figure out what the difference is between slot for a team's draft up to the penalty range, and that will begin to be the point of negotiation. From there you will see the same stuff like you were talking about.

 

I'm not trying to say Appel is only going to get $1m if he goes after a certain pick, but I think they are going to have to learn that with that penalty looming large, teams just aren't going to overpay like they have in the past. Even teams with the extra picks and therefore extra money can go a bit higher than others, but aren't going to dole out the kind of money Appel was looking for.

 

In the case of SM, I think the injury is going to impact things more than the demands themselves. I've heard between 1.5-2.5 somewhere would get him signed, which is reasonable for a team with extra picks and money, but the shoulder "tightness" and being shut down has teams on red alert, and after guys like Brackman, I think there is a lot more trepidation to throw that kind of money around now since there is a limit on spending, where as before it was just money.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see no one reach on him out of injury concern, and then someone take a flier later that he won't sign. It's just a risk if that tightness turns out to require surgery and he misses time next season as well. There's an outside shot, depending on how bad the injury is, and if he knows it, that he could sign for much less than predicted if he doesn't get the offer he wants. I'd LOVE to see his medicals, but from what I hear, no one is releasing them for the arm, just for the minor back issue. So buyer beware big time on that one.


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#67 JeffLong

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:03 AM

Keith Law built a pretty cool draft tool. It's the kind of thing they usually use for the NBA draft, but it lets you build out a draft based on how you think one (or more) team will draft. Pretty cool.

 

http://insider.espn....raft/tool/index


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#68 Mackus

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:49 AM

Wow.

 

Boy does having a team that's in contention completely change how interested I am in the draft.  It's amazing.  Previous years I would read a ton and know who everyone thought were the top 100 or so players.  I know nothing about this draft.  Didn't even realize it was today!


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#69 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:09 AM

I figured may as well get things ready for this evening. This draft has a pretty clear top 3 and then everyone else.

 

The interesting part is the top 3 might not go in the top 3. There is a lot of talk that Colin Moran, 3B for UNC and BJ Surhoff's nephew could go to HOU at #1, and that COL may stray and look at Dominic Smith at #3.

 

As far as the Orioles go, they are in a position where they should wait to see who falls, but there could be any one of 7-10 guys they are looking at depending on who reaches and falls.

 

My favorite area could be those 2 picks after the #22 pick, where I would be targeting guys like Matt Mcphearson (local HS OF), Kent Emmanuel, SP UNC, or maybe even Sean Manaea if they aren't worried about the injury risk there. I would also look at Kevin Ziomek from Vandy with that 2nd round pick if he's still there. Talk today that Austin Wilson, OF from Stanford could still be around for that supplemental round pick.

 

Stay tuned...


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#70 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:37 AM

From the media and from people I know...no one seems to know who the Orioles are going to target.  It very much depends on "who falls to them", but no one knows who that "who" is.

 

That said...Law/Callis/Mayo are zeroing in on Chris Anderson...a ho hum college righty.  It may simply be an echo chamber thing.

 

Even as righties go...he would not exactly be my pick.  I have at least Wahl above him and I think that part of the draft will be full of better college bats and HSers.

 

But, there is a lot of flexibility in rankings and needs team to team as always.


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#71 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:44 AM

Sorry to be contrarian, but I don't think there is a clear top 3.  There is actually quite a bit of difference between teams.  Grey and Appel do some shuffling in the 1-3 range and I know of a one team who have Bryant as the 3rd best 3rd baseman.

 

Basically, the top three is a majority opinion as opposed to a consensus.



#72 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:45 AM

From the media and from people I know...no one seems to know who the Orioles are going to target.  It very much depends on "who falls to them", but no one knows who that "who" is.

 

That said...Law/Callis/Mayo are zeroing in on Chris Anderson...a ho hum college righty.  It may simply be an echo chamber thing.

 

Even as righties go...he would not exactly be my pick.  I have at least Wahl above him and I think that part of the draft will be full of better college bats and HSers.

 

But, there is a lot of flexibility in rankings and needs team to team as always.

 

Exactly. Once you get to that part of the draft, it's very much dominoes driven. Who goes and who drops will determine the back half of the first.


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#73 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:47 AM

Yeah...re: Chris Anderson...incredibly unsexy pick with high floor, low ceiling.

 

I like to dream on players in the first round.



#74 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:56 AM

So basically you are arguing word choice between pretty clear and consensus (which is a word I didn't even use)?


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#75 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:57 AM

So basically you are arguing word choice between pretty clear and consensus (which is a word I didn't even use)?

 

I was commenting on a general misunderstanding of print media.

 

It had little to do with your word choice.  It is just something that happens every year.  Just a general comment for the masses.



#76 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:57 AM

Yeah...re: Chris Anderson...incredibly unsexy pick with high floor, low ceiling.

 

I like to dream on players in the first round.

 

This draft is kinda loaded with unsexy picks though. Unless you talk about gambling on someone like Manaea, or reaching for a kid like Matt Mcphearson.

 

I agree with you.


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#77 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 11:58 AM

I was commenting on a general misunderstanding of print media.

 

It had little to do with your word choice.  It is just something that happens every year.  Just a general comment for the masses.

 

Ah gotcha. Just confused me a little bit. You know that's easy to do.


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#78 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 12:00 PM

Ah gotcha. Just confused me a little bit. You know that's easy to do.

 

I have a tendency to respond with tangents.



#79 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 12:01 PM

I have a tendency to respond with tangents.

 

Oh I do too, trying to multitask and do some work so I can focus later, and reading comprehension not my strong suit at the moment.


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#80 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 12:03 PM

This draft is kinda loaded with unsexy picks though. Unless you talk about gambling on someone like Manaea, or reaching for a kid like Matt Mcphearson.

 

I agree with you.

 

My problem with Anderson is that there are a lot of guys like him.  It was similar to my argument against Hobgood when he came out.

 

High floor / low ceiling guys...I mean, with probability the way it is...you need a really high floor for that pick to make sense to me.

 

I would be leaning over to players like Jagielo, Green, Kaminsky, and McKinney.  Maybe Ervin or Dozier if you want high floors.

 

Guys like Anderson will still be plentiful at the comp pick.

 

Maybe they simply see something they really like about him.  I don't know.






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