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#321 mweb08

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:02 PM

I like Reynolds and do feel he will be a good player next year...but can you get his production for less?

Would you rather him for 8ish million or Blanks for 1 million at most, provided he is healthy?


I don't think either of those options are great.

But if the O's got Blanks, I think he'd have to earn AB's vs righties as I'd pencil in Davis at 1B and Betemit at DH.

Like Mackus, I'd try to work something out with Reynolds in the 5-6 million range for 1-2 years.

#322 Mackus

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:04 PM

I think you can definitely get Reynolds' production for less, at least what he's given the last two years with the bat and what you expect from him with the glove defensively at first base. Every year you see guys signed for real cheap that end up being worth a couple of wins. You could also easily miss on whatever platoon or bounce-back option you go with for $1-2M and end up with below replacement value. The question is moreso on how confident are you in the cheap option you would choose instead of Reynolds, rather than having great questions about what type of production Mark is going to give you.

What you probably can't get, is someone with his HR power potential, though. Even if the overall offensive production isn't great, he's likely to hit 30 or so HRs and he walks often enough to have a passable OBP even with a 220 BA. I think the most likely scenario for Reynolds is something like a 220/330/465 slash line with 28-32 HRs and very solid defense at 1B. I think, in terms of pure WAR and value, that he would likely be worth about 2 WAR, which is worth right around $8-9M on the FA market.

Someone will certainly scrape up some corner OF or 1B type for $500k-1.5M and get ~2 WAR from that player. The problem is identifying that one player from a sizable pool of nearly indistinguishable players ahead of time.

#323 JeremyStrain

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:05 PM

I like Reynolds and do feel he will be a good player next year...but can you get his production for less?

Would you rather him for 8ish million or Blanks for 1 million at most, provided he is healthy?

I don't think you are Going to get his production out of blanks. Talked to a guy that saw him last season and asked if he'd go after him if he were non tendered and he said no.
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#324 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:12 PM

I don't think you are Going to get his production out of blanks. Talked to a guy that saw him last season and asked if he'd go after him if he were non tendered and he said no.

But was he healthy when he saw him?

The health aspect of things is the real key for Blanks.

#325 JeremyStrain

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:16 PM

But was he healthy when he saw him?

The health aspect of things is the real key for Blanks.


I think he was. Ill try to check again. Didnt actually call him a 4A player...but seemed like he was going down that road. Never know coming out of SD though.
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#326 BobPhelan

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 01:34 PM

There's no good reason to not negotiate with him. Saying, "Here: take it or else" isn't negotiating.


I thought that went without saying... I'm saying I would try to negotiate a deal for 2/13 or less, if he wants more than that then we can sign him to a one year deal or go to arbitration.

#327 RShack

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 03:57 PM

His first step is flat out bad and it's such an important part of the defensive picture that it is enough to drop him down to average. There is another rating in between of above average that would be more what you are thinking but the first step is so bad and it's so important that I just can't call him better than average.

OK...

Some questions:

1. For 1B in particular, is there any rule of thumb about the relative weights of 1st step vs. good hands?

2. Ditto, but for the relative value of being good on hit balls vs. thrown balls?

3. So, the scale you think on goes average/above average/elite, is that right?

4. Is this your scale or some generic scouting scale?

I'd think there would be distinctions between good and very good... it seems like both should be between average and elite, but I know zip about what scales are used in scouting (except for the 20-80 thing for p-quality)...

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#328 JeremyStrain

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 04:29 PM

OK...

Some questions:

1. For 1B in particular, is there any rule of thumb about the relative weights of 1st step vs. good hands?

2. Ditto, but for the relative value of being good on hit balls vs. thrown balls?

3. So, the scale you think on goes average/above average/elite, is that right?

4. Is this your scale or some generic scouting scale?

I'd think there would be distinctions between good and very good... it seems like both should be between average and elite, but I know zip about what scales are used in scouting (except for the 20-80 thing for p-quality)...

Taking the girls trick or treating. I'll get back to this tonight or tomorrow morning. Not ignoring you.
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#329 bnickle

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:28 PM

I see some of you are saying to try to get him to sign for 2/10-12 but offer arb if you had to do so. If I'm Reynolds or his agent and I'm sizing up the FA 1b market there is no way I'm agreeing to 2/10-12. I'm playing chicken with the O's and making them decline arb for 9 mil just for 2013. I mean there isn't a great 1b FA class and the O'sneed a 1B. I'm not a fan of the internal options(Davis, Betemit). Surely, 9 mil is a little too steep as far as value for Reynolds and he is not going to get 9 mil a year in FA but something like 3/21 is certainly possible. IMO, Reynolds has the upper hand here with the O's. I think if you're realistically trying to sign him to an extension the min you could get him to sign is something like 2/14 mil.

#330 RShack

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:32 PM

I see some of you are saying to try to get him to sign for 2/10-12 but offer arb if you had to do so. If I'm Reynolds or his agent and I'm sizing up the FA 1b market there is no way I'm agreeing to 2/10-12. I'm playing chicken with the O's and making them decline arb for 9 mil just for 2013. I mean there isn't a great 1b FA class and the O'sneed a 1B. I'm not a fan of the internal options(Davis, Betemit). Surely, 9 mil is a little too steep as far as value for Reynolds and he is not going to get 9 mil a year in FA but something like 3/21 is certainly possible. IMO, Reynolds has the upper hand here with the O's. I think if you're realistically trying to sign him to an extension the min you could get him to sign is something like 2/14 mil.

Not sure about the details, but I agree in principle with the points you are making. IMO, he'd be a dope to sign a cheap 2-year deal... and the O's would be stupid to let him walk if he didn't... what's called for here is a compromise, not a smack down....

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#331 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:34 PM

I see some of you are saying to try to get him to sign for 2/10-12 but offer arb if you had to do so. If I'm Reynolds or his agent and I'm sizing up the FA 1b market there is no way I'm agreeing to 2/10-12. I'm playing chicken with the O's and making them decline arb for 9 mil just for 2013. I mean there isn't a great 1b FA class and the O'sneed a 1B. I'm not a fan of the internal options(Davis, Betemit). Surely, 9 mil is a little too steep as far as value for Reynolds and he is not going to get 9 mil a year in FA but something like 3/21 is certainly possible. IMO, Reynolds has the upper hand here with the O's. I think if you're realistically trying to sign him to an extension the min you could get him to sign is something like 2/14 mil.

But his performance wasn't good, his all or nothing rep doesn't help and he can't hit for average to save his life.

So, he really doesn't have much leverage.

#332 bnickle

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:47 PM

But his performance wasn't good, his all or nothing rep doesn't help and he can't hit for average to save his life.

So, he really doesn't have much leverage.


I disagree. It's not as much about his overall performance it's sizing up the O's roster and FA market. Are they really going to hand the job to Davis again. I mean that's certainly possible but he is worse defensively than Reynolds and is still somewhat of a question mark offensively. IMO, still more of a question mark than Reynolds. Reynolds at 9mil for a year is better than giving Swisher or Youk whatever they are going to get on the FA market. I don't expect the O's to realistically want to match what each of those 2 sign for in FA both in terms of money and years. Finally, as I said, the FA market at 1b is thin. Even if Reynolds plays chicken and loses with the O's I think he would likely get 2/14 or 3/18 in FA. I mean even if he only gets 2/10 on the FA market it's still better to have made the O's non tender and test the open market than to have signed an extension at the same price early with the O's.

#333 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:54 PM

I disagree. It's not as much about his overall performance it's sizing up the O's roster. Are they really going to hand the job to Davis again. I mean that's certainly possible but he is worse defensively than Reynolds and IMo is still somewhat of a question mark offensively. IMO, still more of a question mark than Reynolds. Reynolds at 9mil for a year is better than giving Swisher or Youk whatever they are going to get on the FA market. I don't expect the O's to realistically want to match what each of those 2 sign for in FA both in terms of money and years. Finally, as I said, the FA market at 1b is thin. Even if Reynolds plays chicken and loses with the O's I think he would likely get 2/14 or 3/18 in FA. I mean even if he only gets 2/10 on the FA market it's still better to have made the O's non tender and test the open market than to have signed an extension at the same price early with the O's.

Reynolds likely has more value to us than anyone else.

And yes, they could give it to Davis. That gives them leverage. Davis always had a good rep as a good defensive first baseman, when he w consistently playing there, so maybe he can get back to that.

I don't disagree that first base is weak but he is coming off a relatively poor year, where he didn't do the one thing he can do...hit 30+ homers.

A 2/12 type deal isn't bad for him coming off the year he had. His COMBINED fWAR the last 2 years is .8!!! That's not good.

#334 RichardZ

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:08 PM

Anyone who thinks that Davis can be an average to above average defensive 1B, should just non-tender Reynolds unless you're real sure he's gonna smack 35 homers minimum. I thought Davis looked bad at 1B, particularly on what Reynolds looked good at, picking throws in the dirt, and making the tough stretch play. We almost are stuck going with Reynolds for what he showed on defense. Davis looked subpar there. Betemit looked subpar there. If I thought either could replace his defense, I'd just non-tender him or give him a low ball take it or leave it. Bottom line. I'd probably just go to arbitration and hope he doesn't get too much and hope he can put up a big year next year. I doubt Reynolds goes for a cheap two year oontract but that's worth a try too.

#335 bnickle

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:11 PM

Reynolds likely has more value to us than anyone else.

And yes, they could give it to Davis. That gives them leverage. Davis always had a good rep as a good defensive first baseman, when he w consistently playing there, so maybe he can get back to that.

I don't disagree that first base is weak but he is coming off a relatively poor year, where he didn't do the one thing he can do...hit 30+ homers.

A 2/12 type deal isn't bad for him coming off the year he had. His COMBINED fWAR the last 2 years is .8!!! That's not good.


I mean if he really enjoys playing for ther O's and wants to give somewhat of a discount(not necessarily a discount but not wanting to really play hardball with them) I could see him signing an extension early for 2/12. However, If I'm his agent trying to get him the best deal possible I'm advising him not to sign a 2/12 extension before the O's have to make the decision on whether to tender him or not. I'm playing it out and going to arb or testing the FA market.

#336 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:13 PM

I mean if he really enjoys playing for ther O's and wants to give somewhat of a discount(not necessarily a discount but not wanting to really play hardball with them) I could see him signing an extension early for 2/12-13. However, If I'm his agent trying to get him the best deal possible I'm advising him not to sign a 2/12 extension before the O's have to make the decision on whether to tender him or not. I'm playing it out and going to arb or testing the FA market.

If I'm Reynolds and I have the choice of arbitration or sign a 2/12 contract, I'm taking arbitration.

If my options are 2/12 or free agency, I'm taking the 12 million.
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#337 Luke Jackson

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:19 PM

From all that we've heard and read, it seems likely that the Orioles will try to bring back Reynolds for around the total cost of nine million bucks for next year to play first base every day. It would be a defensible decision. The market for corner bats is weak and if you can bring back the Sheriff at 1/9, it's not a needle-mover in any direction. In the grand scheme of things, it's a nondescript move. It's not going to be a big move to get them back to the playoffs and if they were to let him go, that certainly wouldn't be THE move that kept them out of the playoffs next year.

However, I can't help but think there are better ways to spend $9 million. Consider that Wilson Betemit is under contract for next year and that Chris Davis will be back with the squad barring a surprising trade. I think a prudent move would be to move Davis to first base full-time and find a Jonny Gomes type of player to pair with Betemit at DH. Once you spend $2 million or so on a DH who can hit lefties, that gives you an extra $6.5 million ($500K buyout for Reynolds) to find answers in the rotation, at second base or in left field. Quite frankly, the biggest difference between Reynolds and Davis is that the Sheriff has softer hands at first and is able to make more of those scoops. But I think Davis has just as much range as Reynolds and probably more (Davis is a good athlete but he's a bit out of place in the outfield, although he was a trooper to fill in at the corner spots when he was needed.) The Sheriff tends to be a bit dramatic and it overstates what appears his range is -- the bellyflops look cool but most good first baseman can just catch the ball without the theatrics. Defensively, I feel like it's a wash. And it's first base. This is as much energy as I can work up to talk about defense at first base.
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#338 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:22 PM

Reynolds is fine but 9 million is just too much.

He just isn't that good...and this is from someone who expects a nice bounce back year.

#339 bnickle

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:23 PM

If I'm Reynolds and I have the choice of arbitration or sign a 2/12 contract, I'm taking arbitration.

If my options are 2/12 or free agency, I'm taking the 12 million.


If I was Reynolds and I could read DD and the O's mind and knew they were going to decline arb then yeah I take a 2/12 offer very seriously but obviously there is no way of knowing for sure DD and the O's are going to decline arb, even if they are telling me leading up to arb that they are going to do it.

It's like poker here. Not only in calling or not calling the O's bluff in regards to offering arb but also taking it to the next street and playing the FA market. Certainly, it's possible Reynolds doesn't make 2/12 on the open market but it's also possible he can get more than that. All things considered, I'm advising Reynolds to wait it out. I think thats the optimal play for him, if you will.

#340 SportsGuy

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 06:28 PM

If I was Reynolds and I could read DD and the O's mind and knew they were going to decline arb then yeah I take a 2/12 offer very seriously but obviously there is no way of knowing for sure DD and the O's are going to decline arb, even if they are telling me leading up to arb that they are going to do it.

It's like poker here. Not only in calling or not calling the O's bluff in regards to offering arb but also taking it to the next street and playing the FA market. Certainly, it's possible Reynolds doesn't make 2/12 on the open market but it's also possible he can get more than that. All things considered, I'm advising Reynolds to wait it out. I think thats the optimal play for him, if you will.

I think Reynolds would find that the one year deal and try to re-establish value is likely going to be his best option.

The idea of taking 2/12 from the Orioles is a good one IMO because on the open market, he is only likely to get a 1/6 type contract...if he has a poor year in 2013, he is likely to get a really small deal or even a MiL contract.

He can/will get more for one year from the Orioles than he will from another team.




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