26 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

On Twitter I asked, "Would it shock you if any of Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter, Chen, Hammel pitched like a league average 3rd starter?"

Jon Shepherd ‏ @CamdenDepot responded, "No, anyone of them is capable of a 4.15-4.30 ERA."

[Oriole85]

Is it likely that Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter, Chen, and Hammel each pitch towards their ceilings? Obviously it is not.

Britton's shoulder is a question. Matusz was a mess last year. Arrieta is coming off surgery. Chen will be adjusting to a new culture, and higher talent. Hammel will be adjusting back to the AL.

That said, is it completely implausible to you that the makings of a decent staff exist? Would it shock you if any of those 6 starters pitched like a league average 3rd starter? Am I alone in believing that Britton and Matusz still have the upside of being a league average 2nd starter?

I think how Britton performs in his second season and whether Matusz can bounce back are two of the most pressing questions, the Orioles do have some bland storylines. I think both of them can be middle of the rotation starters, but I think that's setting the bar low. I'm not expecting Cy Young out of them but I do like to think they can do better than our super-low expectations. So I'm with you Chris.

[michael thompson]

I have no inside information to base this on, but i have a strong feeling the Orioles starters and the team as a whole is going to perform very well this year and be one of the surprise teams in MLB.

We have the numbers and raw talent on the roster.

Am looking forward to the games beginning soon in the Grapefruit League and seeing what we have in store us this season.

[SteveA]

Here's the thing; we're all but guaranteed to see the best five pitchers out of ST being the starters. In the past we've seen perhaps the 5th rotation spot up for grabs, but the rest of them have been all but set. However this year nothing seems to be guaranteed, and each of the five guys that make it into the rotation will have to earn his way there. That kind of experience might come in handy once the regular season starts.

How does that guarantee we'll have the best five pitchers in the rotation?

I mean, obviously, the manager and coaches are observing the coaches in every practice, every bullpen session, and each game they appear in during camp. But does that guarantee that the five guys they choose are the ones that will do the best once the season starts? I don't think so. It's a very inexact science. You certainly can't base it just on spring training stats because of the minor league lineups they often face, or the starts where they are out there just trying to "work on something". The coaches have more information than just those spring training stats, as they can observe every bullpen session, work habits, coachability, etc.

But still, if it was that simple, every team would always come out of camp with the best five guys and you would never see adjustments in April/May/June as guys fail to perform. Yet it happens all the time, and not just to the Orioles or just to bad teams.

Certainly having detph is better than not having depth. But I don't think it guarantees that we'll pick the "best five".

Guys with options vs guys without options complicates the issue too.

[BSLChrisStoner]

With the season now on the immediate horizon, what are your current thoughts here?

[Mackus]

I'll be surprised if there are more than two guys we can count on going forward at the end of this season. I don't trust or have high hopes for any of the veterans (including the new Asian pitchers), and we'd have to be quite lucky to hit on all three of Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton as reliable #3 or better starters.

[SportsGuy]

I think BMat will be fine.

I do not think Britton pitches in the majors this season or if he does, it will be so limited and we enter the offseason still with an injury concern.

Arrieta should be fine but I think the chances are more on the side of him being an unknown, in terms of should be a reliever or starter...I also view Chen and Tillman the same way.

I think Hunter and Wada show that the pen is where they should be but that Hunter would still be tentatively penciled in as a starter for next year.