I think we'll see how the signings shake out. In the shadow draft we ran at CD we went with Buttrey in the 4th (Jon wanted Christian Walker in the 4th, actually, before the draft even started). I made the Buttrey selection because that's where I thought we should take a shot for an impact player. Truth is, Buttrey may decide against signing and we'll be left with nothing for that round and no comp pick.
For me, personally, I like the risk. I don't buy into the idea that Gausman would get to drive the bus in negotiations. If I were in Baltimore's shoes, I'd have a document ready to go showing him why he is on par with Matusz, and should get the same deal plus any inflation. Be fair and give him a deal he deserves, but it's not like he is likely to turn down, say, a $3.5 MM take-it-or-leave-it deal and go back to school for another year with hopes of getting selected in the top 4 again and paid more with less leverage.
Unless they show the Orioles how you rated Gausman on par or ahead of Hultzen and Bauer, who both got a lot more than 4.2M. You can play hardball in negotiations and to the take it or leave it 3.5M offer. Might work. Might not. Gary Rajsich is the one who has to live with the outcome. One thing, I'd bet on. A 3.5M offer wouldn't be accepted until the deadline, if it was accepted and it would probably create some acrimony between the two sides. Again, it might work, but at what cost. And what if it didn't work? We might not ever know unless the O's actually sign him for less than the 4.2M. You say that should use Matusz's bonus as a barometer and include inflation. Heck, the inflation is what pitchers got in last year's draft. You want Gausman to take half of what pitchers you call comparable got. Try selling that. I see a slot signing for Gausman which is fair under the new system. Trying to sign him for under MLB's own guidelines amounts to a slap in the face as in "We thought you were one of the top 4 players in the draft but we want to pay you like the 7th or 8th best guy." In the real world, the O's will come off as the bad guys as they try to give less than what their own league says is fair.
I think you might be undervaluing how important slot can be. Kids will definitely argue "I'm a better talent than the slot I was picked".
You apparently feel strongly about this, but I think you are wrong and your analysis is off with regards to "what the league thinks is fair". The slot allotments were intentionally made to be higher than slot recommendations in the past to allow teams the flexibility. These allotments
are not a recommendation for how much a player should receive. It is recommended slot plus a little extra so that teams can have flexbility in how they use their allotment in the aggregate. While the term "slot" is being used interchangeably by reporters, it's a different concept than what we had under the old system.
Matusz was selected in the same slot, by the same organization. Have you compared their college stats? Noted Matusz is left handed? I'm not sure why you feel as strongly as you do, but I think it's a misguided stance:
Matusz 105 IP, 141 SO, 22 BB, .211 BAA, 1.71 ERA
Gausman 115,7 IP, 128 SO, 27 BB, .230 BAA, 2.72 ERA
You really think it's a stretch to say Gausman is a comparable collegiate pitcher, but right handed instead of left with slightly lower production his junior year? I won't lay out the stats for Bauer and Hultzen, but both were superior to Gausman's stats, and both were selected ahead of Gausman's slot -- they shouldn't be in a contract discussion.
Gausman with a $3.5 MM offer -- do you want to take this now, or come back as a senior (with absolutely no leverage) and hope for a successful, healthy, year that puts you ahead of the younger and potentially equally talented arms and position players that will also be available? And remember, in order to get more than $3.5 MM, you need to go at least this high next year and convince a team that, even though you have no leverage, you should get every penny the team has to give you at this position in the draft. If you go any lower, all you've done is lost a year of pro experience, a year of the development that can only come from working with professionals on a daily basis, and pro pay check.
$3.5 MM plus you get every penny we have left over up to the 5% amount over 10 round allotment. I don't think there's any way Baltimore should end up giving $4.2 MM to Guasman (though, personally, I think he is worth that).