18 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

So we've had 13 OOC games for the Terps, and finally the ACC begins Saturday with a noon tilt vs. Virginia Tech at Comcast. The Terps only loss on the season came against Kentucky in Brooklyn. The Terps won the other 12 contests, but against fairly weak competition (excluding Northwestern, George Mason and Stony Brook IMO).

Maryland is 5th in the country in rebounds, 5th in assists and 12th in FG% entering ACC play. Len and Mitchell are poised to dominate inside, and Wells is a difference maker in the back court. Aronhalt proved to be a dependable 3-point threat, shooting 53.8% from behind the arc during the OOC schedule.

I think this team does serious damage, and feel much more confident now than I did coming into the season (even after the Dez news). Here are my predictions:

1/5 vs. VT - W
1/9 vs. FSU - W
1/13 @ Miami - L
1/16 vs. NC State - W
1/19 @ UNC - L
1/22 vs BC - W
1/26 @ Duke - L
1/30 @ FSU - L
2/2 vs. Wake - W
2/7 @ VT - W
2/10 vs. UVA - W
2/16 vs. Duke - W
2/19 @ BC - W
2/23 vs. Clemson - W
2/27 @ GT - W
3/2 @ Wake - W
3/6 vs. UNC - W
3/10 @ UVA - W

So I'm going with a 14-4 ACC record with losses @ Duke/FSU/UNC/Miami. Maybe we beat Miami, but lose at home vs. NC State, that's very possible.

Sorry for not going more in depth with the rotations and other stats, but with limited time, this is all I could put together.

What are everyone's predictions?

[BSLChrisStoner]

I said 12-6 before the season, so I'll stick with that. I don't think the 14-4 record you are projecting is out of the question at all.

I do think it is important for MD to win these first two ACC games (VaTech, and FSU) at home.

[Mackus]

12-13 wins seems like a good target, for me. I'm super excited for ACC play to start.

[bnickle]

Can't wait for the conference season to start. I agree 12 or 13 seems about right.

BTW....with the 18 game schedule and the outlook of the ACC this year where do we think the bublle line will be in general. obviously, other factors will be in play like RPI, SOS, quality wins, etc but in general where is the bublle line?? 10-8, 11-7???

[SportsGuy]

12-6 should be their floor.

[You Play to Win the Game]

12-6 should be their floor.

I agree. I thought 12 wins was the high end coming into ACC play (as you can recall during our conversation early in the season), but I've really liked what I've seen from several players and feel strongly this team will be borderline dominant at times in the ACC. Duke is clearly the cream of the crop, but MD should have good odds at being #2.

[Mackus]

Can't wait for the conference season to start. I agree 12 or 13 seems about right.

BTW....with the 18 game schedule and the outlook of the ACC this year where do we think the bublle line will be in general. obviously, other factors will be in play like RPI, SOS, quality wins, etc but in general where is the bublle line?? 10-8, 11-7???

I don't have a great grasp of just how good the ACC is this year. In the past, we've seen 7-9 or 8-8 be good enough for an at large bids some years and in others it takes 9 or 10 wins.

I would think that 11-7 will get most teams in, unless they had a really brutal out of conference record. 10-8 is probably right on the bubble, assuming an average resume out of conference. That's basically the regular old 9-7 record that is typically on the confident side of the bubble and then winning both extra games gets you clearly over the bubble, splitting those two leaves you on the bubble.

[glenn__davis]

I would think they'd need 11 to be on the bubble but somewhat comfortable, 12 to be completely safe. I don't think 10 gets it down with their awful OOC schedule.

I think they'll get it. Really excited for ACC play to start. First game is on ACC network so I'm excited about that.

BTW, quick side note - I actually will miss the commentators once we make the move to the B1G. Guys like Tim Brandt, Mike Hogewood, Dan Bonner, Mike Gminski - even if I didn't always agree with their commentary, they are voices from my youth that I'll miss.

[Mackus]

I would think they'd need 11 to be on the bubble but somewhat comfortable, 12 to be completely safe. I don't think 10 gets it down with their awful OOC schedule.

I was speaking more in generalities of the league rather than Maryland's specific status based on record.

That said, I think if Maryland goes 10-8 in the ACC that they'll get in. That would get them to a 24-9 record heading into the ACC tournament. Assume 1-1 there, and you're 25-10. Even with the joke of a non-conference schedule, 25-10 is too good to have to stay home, IMO.

I also think that they'll get to 12 or 13 wins plus a win or two in the tournament and end up being very comfortably in, perhaps as high as a 4 seed or so with potential to be even better than that if things go really well (fix, or at least improve, the season-long issues of ball control and 3 point shooting).

[Nuclear Dish]

So we've had 13 OOC games for the Terps, and finally the ACC begins Saturday with a noon tilt vs. Virginia Tech at Comcast. The Terps only loss on the season came against Kentucky in Brooklyn. The Terps won the other 12 contests, but against fairly weak competition (excluding Northwestern, George Mason and Stony Brook IMO).

Maryland is 5th in the country in rebounds, 5th in assists and 12th in FG% entering ACC play. Len and Mitchell are poised to dominate inside, and Wells is a difference maker in the back court. Aronhalt proved to be a dependable 3-point threat, shooting 53.8% from behind the arc during the OOC schedule.

I think this team does serious damage, and feel much more confident now than I did coming into the season (even after the Dez news). Here are my predictions:

1/5 vs. VT - W
1/9 vs. FSU - W
1/13 @ Miami - L
1/16 vs. NC State - W
1/19 @ UNC - L
1/22 vs BC - W
1/26 @ Duke - L
1/30 @ FSU - L
2/2 vs. Wake - W
2/7 @ VT - W
2/10 vs. UVA - W
2/16 vs. Duke - W
2/19 @ BC - W
2/23 vs. Clemson - W
2/27 @ GT - W
3/2 @ Wake - W
3/6 vs. UNC - W
3/10 vs. UVA - W

So I'm going with a 14-4 ACC record with losses @ Duke/FSU/UNC/Miami. Maybe we beat Miami, but lose at home vs. NC State, that's very possible.

Sorry for not going more in depth with the rotations and other stats, but with limited time, this is all I could put together.

What are everyone's predictions?

You have the last game of the season listed as home, when it's actually an away game at UVA.

I think Maryland will lose to State at home. And I think they will lose one of the road games you are expecting them to win, plus that UVA game. So overall, I think Maryland is an 11-7 ACC team. That should be good enough for about 3rd or 4th in the conference and a first round bye. If they can win their quarterfinal game, they are looking at about a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. If they get upset in the quarters, they are more likely about a 9 seed.

[You Play to Win the Game]

You have the last game of the season listed as home, when it's actually an away game at UVA.

I think Maryland will lose to State at home. And I think they will lose one of the road games you are expecting them to win, plus that UVA game. So overall, I think Maryland is an 11-7 ACC team. That should be good enough for about 3rd or 4th in the conference and a first round bye. If they can win their quarterfinal game, they are looking at about a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. If they get upset in the quarters, they are more likely about a 9 seed.

Sorry about that, I've made the correction.

I don't see us losing either UVA game, unless we have a bad night. They have no answer for Len/Mitchell. That said, it's highly possible that the Terps could have an off night here and there. They're fairly young and inexperienced. I'd be disappointed in an 11-win ACC season, however.

[SportsGuy]

Very surprised to see MD only ranked 56th in Kenpom rankings.

With their very soft schedule, they should be much higher in that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Very surprised to see MD only ranked 56th in Kenpom rankings.

With their very soft schedule, they should be much higher in that.

How do the rankings work? Maybe the soft schedule is impacting that?
According to RealTimeRPI, they are 70th in RPI, and their strength of schedule is 289th.

They are projecting MD to go 9-9 in the ACC.

http://www.realtimer...pi_126_Men.html

[SportsGuy]

How do the rankings work? Maybe the soft schedule is impacting that?
According to RealTimeRPI, they are 70th in RPI, and their strength of schedule is 289th.

They are projecting MD to go 9-9 in the ACC.

http://www.realtimer...pi_126_Men.html

It has some effect but offensive and defensive efficiency is what it is and MD isn't ranked highly in either(56th offense, 70th defense I believe).

[BSLChrisStoner]

It has some effect but offensive and defensive efficiency is what it is and MD isn't ranked highly in either(56th offense, 70th defense I believe).

55th in scoring offense, 46th in scoring defense.

10th in offensive FG%, 4th in defensive FG%.

[Mike B]

I say 12-6.
I think they hit some bumps in the road. I am concerned about turnover's and outside shooting plus they are very young and young teams generally have periods of confidence dips, so 12-6 seems like a good record to me.

[SportsGuy]

55th in scoring offense, 46th in scoring defense.

10th in offensive FG%, 4th in defensive FG%.

http://kenpom.com/

[glenn__davis]

I was speaking more in generalities of the league rather than Maryland's specific status based on record.

That said, I think if Maryland goes 10-8 in the ACC that they'll get in. That would get them to a 24-9 record heading into the ACC tournament. Assume 1-1 there, and you're 25-10. Even with the joke of a non-conference schedule, 25-10 is too good to have to stay home, IMO.

What I meant was that I think 10 puts them right on the bubble. At that point you're at the mercy of some of the results of the other conference tournaments. I don't think looking at their overall record will mean much, and I think the committee will feel the same.

As far as win totals, I'll go with 12. I think I generally agree with ND's assessment except that I don't think they lose to UVA. They'll probably win one they shouldn't and lose one they shouldn't in there as well to balance it out. And I'll say that I'll be more surpised if it's less than 12 than I will be if it's more than 12.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Testudo Times: Here comes the conference: resetting the ACC
http://www.testudoti...in-the-new-year