69 replies to this topic

[BaltBird 24]

It would have been easier giving up draft picks back when you could draft top-end talent in the later rounds who dropped for whatever reason and give them whatever you felt they were worth.

 

The O's gave Jake Arrieta a $1.1M signing bonus as a 5th round pick in 2007. Is it even possible to give a later round pick that much money in todays draft?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Saying draft picks don't matter is ignorant.  But so is saying they should never be sacrificed.

 

They are more important now that the new draft and international FA spending limits are in place, but the guy you are signing improves your team in a way that other options who don't have compensation attached would (especially if you're a contender), it makes perfect sense to sacrifice the draft pick.

 

And once you've forfeited the first round pick, losing the 2nd and so on rounds is no big deal at all.  The 1st round, and perhaps the comp round, is like blackjack.  You know the odds when you go in, there is a little bit of skill involved, and can play accordingly and win big without it being completely crazy random luck.  But the later rounds is more like roulette.  Everyone makes a cheap bet, and one or two of them will pay off.

 

I'm not saying the pick doesn't matter.  I'm saying the later first round picks, by and large, rarely matter.  And the history of the draft backs up that assertion.

 

People protect these picks with fangs out when in reality you're much much much more likely to waste it on a guy who will never amount to anything.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Hobgood wasn't a bust.  A bust implies he should've been good and didn't ever develop or meet his potential.

 

Hobgood was a punt.  He was Chris Smith.  He was never good, had no business being a top-10 pick, and was a complete over-draft the minute he was taken.  Add to it that he was lazy and out of shape by the time he was signed, and then got hurt.

 

Joe Jordan should've been fired the as soon as they announced his name.  Or better yet, fired the minute he decided to take him, and replaced with someone competent who wouldn't have wasted the 5th pick on a fringe top-30 HS pitcher.

 

Couldn't agree with you more. Well said.

[BaltBird 24]

There's an article on Bleacher Report dating back to 2009 that quotes Joe Jordan as saying it was between Hobgood and Wheeler and ultimately he went with Hobgood.

 

Hobgood got $2.4M and Wheeler got $3.3M. Disgusting.

[Mike in STL]

The only good thing about the Hobgood draft was that it was the beginning of a string of Machado, Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey.
 
I know many people will say that Hobgood was a "safe" pick for money reasons, but how nice would we be sitting now with Zack Wheeler or Mike Minor?

Or Shelby Miller in the early teens, or Mike Trout at 25. Can't feel bad about Trout I guess. I mean, 24 other scouts whiffed horribly on that one too. I think the pick the Angels used on him they got from the Yankees.

[Mackus]

I'm not saying the pick doesn't matter.  I'm saying the later first round picks, by and large, rarely matter.  And the history of the draft backs up that assertion.

 

People protect these picks with fangs out when in reality you're much much much more likely to waste it on a guy who will never amount to anything.

 

I bet if you look at picks 11-30 and figured the average contribution from those guys, or even 16-30 or 21-30 or whatever you want, I'd bet they end up helping on average just as much if not more than the mid-level FAs who cost draft picks.

 

The top guys who you don't even question giving up the pick rarely live up to their deals.  When you get down into the middle tier, guys very much like Jimenez and Cruz and Santana and Drew and Morales this year, you're just as likely to regret even the reduced, compensation-deflated contract as you are to get your money's worth.

 

Neither mid- to late-1st rond picks nor middle tier free agents are safe bets.  They are just different allocations of resources.  One has a low cost with a low chance of helping you out a ton several years in the future and a moderate chance of helping you out moderately several years into the future.  The other has a high cost with a high chance of helping you moderately in the very near future and a moderate chance of hurting you over the next several years.

 

Giving up your 1st round pick for a part-time DH or setup man just isn't smart business.  Not necessarily because the pick will or won't end up being worth more than the guy you sign.  But because the guy you sign isn't any better than similar players you could get without losing the pick.  The Ravens always say 80% of the production at 50% of the price.  Well, you almost always can get very close to the production you'd get from one of those mid-tier FAs without sacrificing a pick.  If you can't, then the flaw is in your ability to find moderately productive players, not in your apprehension to sacrifice picks.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I bet if you look at picks 11-30 and figured the average contribution from those guys, or even 16-30 or 21-30 or whatever you want, I'd bet they end up helping on average just as much if not more than the mid-level FAs who cost draft picks.

 

Not sure if you're willing to do all that leg work (I'm not) but I'd bet against you here.

[BaltBird 24]

Not sure if you're willing to do all that leg work (I'm not) but I'd bet against you here.

 

Just a random draft here, but in 2006 the 11-30 picks who are major contributors include - Scherzer at #11 and Ian Kennedy at #21.

 

Other notables include Tyler Colvin at 13, Travis Snider at 14, Daniel Bard at 28.

 

I wouldn't pass up a chance to sign Jimenez for anyone in that random draft class after the 11th pick of the first round. Of course, the top 11 included Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Max Scherzer. Oh, and Billy Rowell.

[BSLChrisStoner]

There's an article on Bleacher Report dating back to 2009 that quotes Joe Jordan as saying it was between Hobgood and Wheeler and ultimately he went with Hobgood.

 

Hobgood got $2.4M and Wheeler got $3.3M. Disgusting.

 

From Jan 29th 2010...
 

Baltimore Sports and Life: “After you selected Matt Hobgood, you immediately stated in several interviews that the pick had zero to do with sign-ability, it was about drafting the player you had identifed as wanting. I think that is an important distinction, and I was glad to see you make that known. No matter what the Monday Morning Quarterbacks (myself included) have to say, you are the one being held responsible for the decision. I think you deserve a lot of credit for taking the player you identified, instead of taking a known ‘name’, you were less comfortable with. Can you speak to the comfort you get, in selecting the player you wanted, vs. a player you might have felt left with?”

Joe Jordan: “As a staff we put a lot of time and effort in evaluating players. It only makes sense to take the player “WE” want in each round. In the end we will make good decisions and some will not work out. I don’t worry for a second what the so called experts think – I trust the people in my draft room much more than someone from the outside evaluating our work.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Did you get the chance to see Hobgood in Bluefield? I know it is a decision for the Player Development Department, but do you think Hobgood will have the opportunity to start 2010 in the Delmarva rotation? In an interview with MASN’s Steve Melewski you compared Hobgood to Kevin Millwood. Again, I know Hobgood is now in the hands of Player Development, but do you know if the organization will attempt to have Hobgood spend some-time with Millwood this spring?”

Joe Jordan: “No matter where Matt pitches this year most of all he just needs to stay healthy and compete. The first full season will be not only exciting for him but also a good opportunity for our organization to truly evaluate what we have. I compare players we take every year with established ML players – no need to get Matt and K Millwood together at this point. Matt just needs to go do his work and be a part of whatever roster we decide.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “While I respect you getting the player you wanted, I am still puzzled over the selection of Hobgood over Grant Green. The Baltimore Orioles regularly (and correctly) remind their fans that they do not have the same financial capabilities of the Red Sox, and Yankees. When we spoke last-year, you stated you take the best player each-round, and would never sacrifice what the Orioles do, based on the resources of another organization. Based on your comments then, and with the selection of Hobgood; it appears you are stating you valued Hobgood as having the highest ceiling, based on what was available on the board. Even if you value Hobgood as more talented, does not his selection boil down to hoping everything (health, performance) goes right, so that he might have the chance to make the Majors between 2012-2013?

 

If you take Green, a player that had already gained the experience of 3 years of College, and performed with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod league; you are selecting a guy that should reach the Majors in 2011 (and as Gordon Beckham proved last year, maybe as early as 2010).

So again, if you have less overall resources than your competition, do not you have to A) Get a quicker return on your investment, and B ) Select the player less likely to flame-out? (even if that player has less overall talent)

All of that said, I realize that I am just a blogger, that only ever saw internet-clips and Scouting Reports on these players; while you are the Scouting Director that saw these players first-hand. What aspect of this am I missing, or not considering?”

Joe Jordan: “I liked Grant Green going into the spring as a serious option for our pick at #5. Once the evaluation process ended I decided to go another way. It is valid for someone to question the decision based on any number of factors – you can do that every single year in the draft. A: the end result is far more important than how quickly we see a return on investment. B: I cannot ask for the kind of money it takes to sign these players and tell my GM/Owner (this is based on my opinion that the player is less likely to flame-out than the other guys).”

 

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I believe you announced the O’s spent $8.8M on the 2009 draft-picks. Will there be a similar budget available for the draft-picks in 2010?”

 

Joe Jordan: “I asked for even more than that. I haven’t given the budget much thought – we have a lot of work to do from now til June. I have always been given the financial resources to sign the players we like. This year will be no different.”

[Oriole85]

@masnSteve RHP Matt Hobgood goes on Frederick 7-day DL with right shoulder inflammation, retro to yesterday.