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TJ McFarland


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#1 Tucker Blair

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 11:26 AM

BSL: Orioles Select McFarland in Rule 5, Lose Widlansky in AAA Phase http://baltimorespor... ... aaa-phase/
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#2 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 11:47 AM

Unless Matusz starts or we trade a couple other young pitchers, I'm not really sure there is much room for this guy in the bullpen. Doesn't hurt to take a look in ST and see if he can be a useful piece, though.

#3 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:01 PM

Unless Matusz starts or we trade a couple other young pitchers, I'm not really sure there is much room for this guy in the bullpen. Doesn't hurt to take a look in ST and see if he can be a useful piece, though.

Matusz is going to st as a sp.
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#4 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:06 PM

Matusz is going to st as a sp.

Of course, but that doesn't mean he's going to Baltimore as a SP. We've only got one spot in the rotation right now and they are still trying to sign a vet. If they don't, then I like strongly Matusz' chances of winning that spot, as I don't think any of the other contenders (Johnson, Britton, Arrieta, Hunter) are particularly good as starting pitching candidates and I don't think Bundy gets a call until May at the earliest (and certainly has zero chance at the OD roster for service time purposes, 3 weeks absolute minimum at AAA). If they do sign a vet, I don't like his chances of unseating Gonzalez or Tillman in a ST battle, so he'd only come North in the rotation if somebody else gets hurt.

With what Blanton got, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pass on signing a starter.

#5 mweb08

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:25 PM

I would think that Britton would be the favorite for that last spot if no one is signed. That's based on what Duq has said, how he, Britton, Arrieta, etc were handled last year, and just my opinion of the pitchers.

#6 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:51 PM

I would think that Britton would be the favorite for that last spot if no one is signed. That's based on what Duq has said, how he, Britton, Arrieta, etc were handled last year, and just my opinion of the pitchers.


I still don't see why people are so high on Britton.

I have them as: Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta/Britton

You've got to remember Britton is 25, with no real track record of success in MLB, coming off a shoulder injury.
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#7 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:53 PM

I would think that Britton would be the favorite for that last spot if no one is signed. That's based on what Duq has said, how he, Britton, Arrieta, etc were handled last year, and just my opinion of the pitchers.

I agree that most people, and the team, likely have a different opinion of Britton than I do. I've got him behind Matusz and Johnson in terms of guys I'd like to see get that #5 starter's position. Ahead of Arrieta and Hunter, though, who personally I think are both done as starters and should move forward only as relief pitchers from this point on (both of which I think will be very good relievers).

#8 RichardZ

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:54 PM

I still don't see why people are so high on Britton.

I have them as: Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta/Britton

You've got to remember Britton is 25, with no real track record of success in MLB, coming off a shoulder injury.



None of our young pitchers have a real track record of success. Britton was lights out at the beginning of the 2011 season and put up a pretty good first half, I think. You can't point to any of the other pitchers having anything better than that as a "track record of success". Britton also ranks real high on the "stuff meter".

#9 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:57 PM

None of our young pitchers have a real track record of success. Britton was lights out at the beginning of the 2011 season and put up a pretty good first half, I think. You can't point to any of the other pitchers having anything better than that as a "track record of success". Britton also ranks real high on the "stuff meter".


Britton would be last for me on the "stuff meter".

If we're looking at just "stuff" I have it: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz/Britton
Control: Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Arrieta


I think Britton relies most on a heavy fastball that can come and go. He also relies heavily on his control (as does Matusz) but has less tools to get away with bad control than Matusz.

Part of it is personal bias - I'm not a huge fan of the Minnesota Twins-type pitcher.
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#10 RichardZ

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:04 PM

Britton would be last for me on the "stuff meter".

If we're looking at just "stuff" I have it: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz/Britton
Control: Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Arrieta


I think Britton relies most on a heavy fastball that can come and go. He also relies heavily on his control (as does Matusz) but has less tools to get away with bad control than Matusz.

Part of it is personal bias - I'm not a huge fan of the Minnesota Twins-type pitcher.



I guess we have a total disconnect on this subject. Britton's stuff is probably the best of the 4, IMO. The thing keeping him from consistency is his command. The fastball doesn't come and go. The command does.
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#11 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

I still don't see why people are so high on Britton.

I have them as: Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta/Britton

You've got to remember Britton is 25, with no real track record of success in MLB, coming off a shoulder injury.


You don't think his rookie season was successful?

11-11, 4.61 era, 154.1 ip, 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s, OPS against .735, G/F ratio of 1.24, in the AL East?

Is there anything to indicate he is not past the shoulder injury? I'd argue that he is, based on the stuff he showed last Summer - which I think is vastly better than you do.

Britton would be last for me on the "stuff meter".

If we're looking at just "stuff" I have it: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz/Britton
Control: Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Arrieta


I think Britton relies most on a heavy fastball that can come and go. He also relies heavily on his control (as does Matusz) but has less tools to get away with bad control than Matusz.

Part of it is personal bias - I'm not a huge fan of the Minnesota Twins-type pitcher.


Over his last start of July, and first two starts of August; Britton allowed 17 er over 13.1 ip. During those starts, there were a lot of O’s fans who believed those poor results were providing indication he was still hurt. My contention at the time was that his problems were a result of not throwing his 2 seam fastball enough, and not throwing it for strikes enough of the time when he did. During those starts he threw the 2 seam fastball 26.5% of the time, and threw them for a strike just 57.1% of the time. He then followed that horrific stretch, with four of the best starts of any O’s pitcher in 2012. During that August 18th – September 4th run, Britton pitched 28.2 innings, allowing 21 hits, 3 er, 7 bb’s, with 29 k’s, and 43 ground balls. Throwing the 2 seam 32.6% of the time during those games, he threw them for a strike 66.2% of the time.
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#12 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:28 PM

You don't think his rookie season was successful?

11-11, 4.61 era, 154.1 ip, 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s, OPS against .735, G/F ratio of 1.24, in the AL East?

Is there anything to indicate he is not past the shoulder injury? I'd argue that he is, based on the stuff he showed last Summer - which I think is vastly better than you do.

______

Over his last start of July, and first two starts of August; Britton allowed 17 er over 13.1 ip. During those starts, there were a lot of O’s fans who believed those poor results were providing indication he was still hurt. My contention at the time was that his problems were a result of not throwing his 2 seam fastball enough, and not throwing it for strikes enough of the time when he did. During those starts he threw the 2 seam fastball 26.5% of the time, and threw them for a strike just 57.1% of the time. He then followed that horrific stretch, with four of the best starts of any O’s pitcher in 2012. During that August 18th – September 4th run, Britton pitched 28.2 innings, allowing 21 hits, 3 er, 7 bb’s, with 29 k’s, and 43 ground balls. Throwing the 2 seam 32.6% of the time during those games, he threw them for a strike 66.2% of the time.


I think he was successful as a rookie, sure. I was really excited about him as a prospect. I just haven't seen enough to be convinced since then. I know 25 isn't old necessarily, but I see him as a 4 ERA type. I think that's his true talent level.

With regards to your point about last summer - i find it hard to pull anything meaningful from a 3 or 4 game sample size. We're talking 20 more 2-seamers than a normal 4 game series.

Again, it's probably personal bias, but I think that Britton might not be as valuable as O's fans think. Once again, I know that this opinion is different than most O's fans but I'm ok with that.
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#13 mweb08

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:35 PM

I still don't see why people are so high on Britton.

I have them as: Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta/Britton

You've got to remember Britton is 25, with no real track record of success in MLB, coming off a shoulder injury.


Britton has had strong flashes of success in the majors including last year and he's most recently been very highly regarded out of he, Matusz, and Arrieta. Really, his career numbers aren't that bad: 4.74 ERA, but 4.09 FIP and 4.10 xFIP, which all is better than Matusz and Arrieta's carreer numbers by a decent margin, and it's not like those pitchers have been trending that positively as starters.

Regarding the shoulder, it looked like his stuff was unaffected by the shoulder injury when he was pitching strong in August. I also like his stuff the best for a starting role in OPACY and the AL East.

And as an aside, it seems like Matusz and Arrieta are likely to be relegated to the pen next year imo and simply provide SP depth.

#14 mweb08

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:37 PM

I guess we have a total disconnect on this subject. Britton's stuff is probably the best of the 4, IMO. The thing keeping him from consistency is his command. The fastball doesn't come and go. The command does.


I agree. Especially when you relate that stuff to the home park and even the division in general where groundballs are much more attractive than are flyballs.

#15 RichardZ

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:40 PM

I think he was successful as a rookie, sure. I was really excited about him as a prospect. I just haven't seen enough to be convinced since then. I know 25 isn't old necessarily, but I see him as a 4 ERA type. I think that's his true talent level.

With regards to your point about last summer - i find it hard to pull anything meaningful from a 3 or 4 game sample size. We're talking 20 more 2-seamers than a normal 4 game series.

Again, it's probably personal bias, but I think that Britton might not be as valuable as O's fans think. Once again, I know that this opinion is different than most O's fans but I'm ok with that.



It's ok to have a differnt opinion. I just think you are trying to paint Britton as a fringy stuff guy who relies on command. Every pitcher relies on command but Britton is just not they guy who are making him out to be. The Twins long culitivated pitchers who had average stuff but were thought to have good "pitchability and command". That's not Britton. Britton is pretty close to the antithisis of that.

#16 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:45 PM

It's ok to have a differnt opinion. I just think you are trying to paint Britton as a fringy stuff guy who relies on command. Every pitcher relies on command but Britton is just not they guy who are making him out to be. The Twins long culitivated pitchers who had average stuff but were thought to have good "pitchability and command". That's not Britton. Britton is pretty close to the antithisis of that.


Sure. I don't think he has fringy stuff per se, but I don't think his stuff is as good as you make it out to be. Obviously the ground balls are good, especially given the context. But when we're talking about trades you can't consider how he profiles in OPACY.

I think that all 4 guys have above average stuff, and probably below average command. Britton to me, is the guy that gets hit hardest because his command is off.
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#17 JeremyStrain

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 01:49 PM

Britton would be last for me on the "stuff meter".

If we're looking at just "stuff" I have it: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz/Britton
Control: Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Arrieta


I think Britton relies most on a heavy fastball that can come and go. He also relies heavily on his control (as does Matusz) but has less tools to get away with bad control than Matusz.

Part of it is personal bias - I'm not a huge fan of the Minnesota Twins-type pitcher.


Britton is actually first on the "stuff meter" for me. He's got the best pitch of the 4 without question, (sinker) and 2 others that are right in line with everyone elses stuff. I was the first to point out the shoulder injury last year, but the fact that he came back at his normal velocity last year means it had to be a strain not a tear. If there was anything serious about the shoulder his velocity WOULD NOT have returned. They babied him for safety, and I think that was the right play. He'll be impressive in the spring, you heard it here first.

Tillman has a good 15 game stretch, but then he's got years of doing nothing, so don't weigh that too heavy just because it's most recent. There's just as much chance he comes out that 6.00 ERA pitcher we saw so many times as he does that 2.50 ERA pitcher we saw last year. I'm just hopeful he's closer to the latter.

Matusz change up and curve are better than his FB, he pitches backwards, and his FB lost velocity that made it a batting practice pitch. When you know what's coming, and you do with him because you can sit on that FB because he HAS to throw it at some point in the AB, it's not hard to get around on an 86mph FB. He was MUCH more effective when he was sitting about 91 and touching 94, but I guess he had to take some off to improve his control, so it's a delicate balance. He's still a flyball pitcher though, and a flyball guy that guys can square up on are going to give up HR in Camden Yards.

Jake has a great live FB, but his other pitches are more average, so he's gotta have good control to make up for it. He lost his control after about a 7 game stretch to start the year and never got it back. I've always said he'd make a lights out power closer.
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#18 Kevin Ebert

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:13 PM

Just wanted to follow up with a quick scouting report on TJ McFarland. This is from Mark Anderson of BP:

Baltimore Orioles – T.J. McFarland, LHP (Cleveland Indians) – Touch and feel lefty; FB 87-88, touching 90 mph; can make FB move at will; some deception in delivery that helps FB play up at times; CH flashes fringe-average but he doesn’t trust it; more consistently 40 CH; SL is average; nothing stands out enough to make him a true lefty specialist.
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#19 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:15 PM

Britton is actually first on the "stuff meter" for me. He's got the best pitch of the 4 without question, (sinker) and 2 others that are right in line with everyone elses stuff. I was the first to point out the shoulder injury last year, but the fact that he came back at his normal velocity last year means it had to be a strain not a tear. If there was anything serious about the shoulder his velocity WOULD NOT have returned. They babied him for safety, and I think that was the right play. He'll be impressive in the spring, you heard it here first.

Tillman has a good 15 game stretch, but then he's got years of doing nothing, so don't weigh that too heavy just because it's most recent. There's just as much chance he comes out that 6.00 ERA pitcher we saw so many times as he does that 2.50 ERA pitcher we saw last year. I'm just hopeful he's closer to the latter.

Matusz change up and curve are better than his FB, he pitches backwards, and his FB lost velocity that made it a batting practice pitch. When you know what's coming, and you do with him because you can sit on that FB because he HAS to throw it at some point in the AB, it's not hard to get around on an 86mph FB. He was MUCH more effective when he was sitting about 91 and touching 94, but I guess he had to take some off to improve his control, so it's a delicate balance. He's still a flyball pitcher though, and a flyball guy that guys can square up on are going to give up HR in Camden Yards.

Jake has a great live FB, but his other pitches are more average, so he's gotta have good control to make up for it. He lost his control after about a 7 game stretch to start the year and never got it back. I've always said he'd make a lights out power closer.



Re: Tillman - I'd take his CB over Britton's sinker for what that's worth. Probably not as good a pitch, but damn if it's not impressive.

With Tillman, the question is always going to be: Can he throw his secondary stuff for strikes? If he can... he's a 3 ERA guy. If he can't he's a 5 ERA guy.

I like Matusz and I really don't mind guys who pitch backwards. If the fastball Velo. is right around 90 I think he can succeed as a starter. If he only gets it in the 90s out of the 'pen then that's probably his future.

Jake's pitches are really solid for me, he just has no control or command (being 2 different things of course).

Britton to me has control but not command. He can throw stirkes, but not necessarily where he wants the ball. Again, just my opinion.

It's funny because if only one of these guys turns out to be a contributor in MLB it's about right in terms of prospect performance. The fact that we could get 2 rotation guys and 2 above average bullpen arms out of the 4 is technically a big win.
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#20 LanceRinker

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:45 AM

Figured I'd pass this along - I am a Baseball Prospectus subscriber and I asked Mark Anderson about the McFarland pick:

LanceR

I'm not sure how I feel about the Orioles pick of McFarland. A part of me thinks he could continue to develop well in the O's bullpen this season - Buck does a great job of managing the bullpen and the guys in it.

But another part of me thinks they had an opportunity to take a chance on a position player/prospect that could help at a corner infield or outfield spot.

Do you think the McFarland pick means the O's are determined to trade an arm or two to pick up that bat? I know they're interested in Mike Morse and the Nationals need a lefty reliever (Troy Patton or Brian Matusz maybe)..
Dec 06, 2012 12:31 PM


BP staff member Mark Anderson

Personally, I don't think the McFarland pick means much of anything for guys like Patton or Matusz, or anyone else on the roster for that matter. I'm not a huge McFarland fan, but even the most ardent supporters of him would probably tell you that this is just a flyer pick. They're going to see how he looks in the spring, probably working in shorter stints out of the bullpen, and in all likelihood, he'll head back to Cleveland or a deal will be worked out so the O's can send him to the minor leagues.






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