5 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

RSR: Oddsmakers Are All-in on the Ravens

https://russellstree...-total-in-2026/

[cprenegade]

History has shown that very few head coaches have gotten to a SB in their first year as a head coach.  Both the Ravens and Bills certainly have a chance to add to that list because of the talent on their teams, but it is a fairly safe bet that the AFC representative will be some other team.  In year 2, there is a much higher probability of either team getting there.  

[Biggsy]

History has shown that very few head coaches have gotten to a SB in their first year as a head coach. Both the Ravens and Bills certainly have a chance to add to that list because of the talent on their teams, but it is a fairly safe bet that the AFC representative will be some other team. In year 2, there is a much higher probability of either team getting there.

My problem with that analysis, is that 1st year head coaches are typically with teams that finished in the bottom half of the league. Its not common for a team with the caliber of roster and franchise QB in their prime, like Buffalo and Baltimore, to have head coach openings.

If you looked back, and Im speaking off the cuff here, but I'd still be willing to bet that the majority of teams hiring new head coaches, we're typically also really bad teams a year or more prior.

You look at Baltimore's roster, and they have a ton of talent across the board. Buffalo is the same. If I came from the future and told you either Baltimore or Buffalo won the Superbowl, not many people would be that shocked.

[cprenegade]

My problem with that analysis, is that 1st year head coaches are typically with teams that finished in the bottom half of the league. Its not common for a team with the caliber of roster and franchise QB in their prime, like Buffalo and Baltimore, to have head coach openings.

If you looked back, and Im speaking off the cuff here, but I'd still be willing to bet that the majority of teams hiring new head coaches, we're typically also really bad teams a year or more prior.

You look at Baltimore's roster, and they have a ton of talent across the board. Buffalo is the same. If I came from the future and told you either Baltimore or Buffalo won the Superbowl, not many people would be that shocked.

 

I can't say I disagree with you, and I did take that into consideration.  But there are also some coaches who inherited good teams in their first year and it took them until year two to make it to a SB.  Mike Tomlin inherited a loaded team from Bill Cowher and did not get to a SB until year two.  Bill Belicheck got to the SB in his second year, as well as Doug Pederson with Philadelphia.

 

Then there is the fact that more great coordinators than not have flamed out as head coaches.  If I were betting I would believe that Minter is more likely to be a good HC than a terrible one.  But that isn't guaranteed and an entire coaching staff turn around usually takes some time to nail down.  

 

Both the Ravens and Bills have a lot of talent, but they both also had weaknesses that have killed them in the past.  And other teams have gotten stronger in the AFC over the last two years.  We will see.  

[BSLJamieSieck]

I can't say I disagree with you, and I did take that into consideration.  But there are also some coaches who inherited good teams in their first year and it took them until year two to make it to a SB.  Mike Tomlin inherited a loaded team from Bill Cowher and did not get to a SB until year two.  Bill Belicheck got to the SB in his second year, as well as Doug Pederson with Philadelphia.

 

Then there is the fact that more great coordinators than not have flamed out as head coaches.  If I were betting I would believe that Minter is more likely to be a good HC than a terrible one.  But that isn't guaranteed and an entire coaching staff turn around usually takes some time to nail down.  

 

Both the Ravens and Bills have a lot of talent, but they both also had weaknesses that have killed them in the past.  And other teams have gotten stronger in the AFC over the last two years.  We will see.  

 

I'm hoping the biggest weakness we've had has been addressed via the coaching staff turnover. Fingers crossed.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Think Minter will have the D in a good place. Not so sure about the O. We will see. I do think Doyle is smart so its about getting things installed and adjusting. Hoping things get better as season goes on