54 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ill be different and say Alonso. His middle of the order thunder is needed. And I think he is gonna be a vocal vet leader too. 

 

 

Westy, Cowser, and Rutsch are still the core of this team tho. If they are healthy and productive the team is in good shape

[RichardZ]

I think Chris nailed it.

If Helsley blows that’s going to be tough to take.

Cowser & Rutschman play key positions. If they both rebound the offense should be really good.

[BaltBird 24]

I expect Helsley to bounce back to his Cardinal form, but we also have Kittredge and Wells who can be used at the back end. My only hesitation with Wells is he does seem prone to HRs.

[Mackus]

I think Chris nailed it.

If Helsley blows that’s going to be tough to take.

Cowser & Rutschman play key positions. If they both rebound the offense should be really good.

If the only bullpen problem is Helsley they can patch for a while then fix it in July. Always some closers available, but prices are steep. If Helsley, Kittredge and others are all struggling, it'll be tough to add more than 2 good arms especially if you need to pony up for a closer.

Bullpen is a concern. Definitely the weakest unit on paper but it's also the place where you can most reasonably anticipate to get decent or better production out of completely unexpected sources.

[BSLMattJergensen]

It's a very good question. So many of the young core had down years last season.

 

Rutschman is the one the first comes to mind. Offensively the oblique injury put him on the IL and ended the season a career low in BA (.220) and OPS (.307). Power numbers plummeted and his batting eye wandered. Defensively he regressed as well. The fall off has been sharp and with Basallo's extension hanging over him it will be interesting to see how the first two months plays out with their playing time.

 

If he can return to anything close to All-Star form it will be a huge lift.

 

I'd also agree that Westburg is 1A for me. He just needs to stay healthy.

[Mackus]

Power numbers plummeted and his batting eye wandered.

Rutschman's walk rate was 11% last year. Down from his first two seasons but you from what it fell to in 2024. He was still above league average in 2024, but the walks is his biggest strength so would like to see him back to 12-13%. I think the hit tool also will be fine.

I mostly just want to see the uppercut swinging from the left side disappear. If that happens I think most of the rest takes care of itself. 2nd half of 2024 he was genuinely bad and the numbers matched. When healthy last year I think he actually had more or less solid approach at the plate but the performance didn't match the quality of contact.

I have a hard time determining what I think is the most likely outcome for Adley next year.

[CantonJester]

IMO getting peak Adley back ('22-'23 defensive and offensive outputs) would be the best outcome for the O's. 

[Mackus]

IMO getting peak Adley back ('22-'23 defensive and offensive outputs) would be the best outcome for the O's.

Yeah, agree completely. I remember dreaming on the possibility of a 10-WAR season as he started hot in 2024. We don't even need a new level beyond what we've seen, get back to '22-23, give him a bit more time off from behind the plate since Basallo can fill in admirably and the potential is so tantalizing.

[Slidemaster]

How much better with the Orioles be right now if they had taken Bobby Witt instead of Adley?

They would have Witt at short, Gunnar at 3rd, Westy at 2nd, any number of possible catcher options that are as good if not better than league-average Adley, and Holliday and Mayo could have been turned into Skubal or Crochet last year.

Ugh. One of the all-time biggest misses in team history. I know Adley was a totally defensible pick and the consensus top choice, but it sucks that Witt is going to make the Hall of Fame one day as a lifelong Royal, and Adley is probably going to be a backup catcher by 30.

[jamesdean]

How much better with the Orioles be right now if they had taken Bobby Witt instead of Adley?

They would have Witt at short, Gunnar at 3rd, Westy at 2nd, any number of possible catcher options that are as good if not better than league-average Adley, and Holliday and Mayo could have been turned into Skubal or Crochet last year.

Ugh. One of the all-time biggest misses in team history. I know Adley was a totally defensible pick and the consensus top choice, but it sucks that Witt is going to make the Hall of Fame one day as a lifelong Royal, and Adley is probably going to be a backup catcher by 30.

He justified that pick up until he fell off the cliff in the second half of 2024. I know it was popular on here to attribute the decline to injuries but there's much deeper issues with his pitiful stats. For one thing, he's really tanked as a left-handed hitter. I bet his average since the second half of '24 is at or below .200. His plate discipline has really regressed with OBP falling precipitously over the past year and a half. All we can hope is that the new hitting coaches, and Adley himself, can find solutions and get him back on track.

[Slidemaster]

He justified that pick up until he fell off the cliff in the second half of 2024. I know it was popular on here to attribute the decline to injuries but there's much deeper issues with his pitiful stats. For one thing, he's really tanked as a left-handed hitter. I bet his average since the second half of '24 is at or below .200. His plate discipline has really regressed with OBP falling precipitously over the past year and a half. All we can hope is that the new hitting coaches, and Adley himself, can find solutions and get him back on track.

We can certainly hope. I don't know if I've ever seen someone go from star to dud as quickly as Adley has.

[Mackus]

He justified that pick up until he fell off the cliff in the second half of 2024. I know it was popular on here to attribute the decline to injuries but there's much deeper issues with his pitiful stats. For one thing, he's really tanked as a left-handed hitter. I bet his average since the second half of '24 is at or below .200. His plate discipline has really regressed with OBP falling precipitously over the past year and a half. All we can hope is that the new hitting coaches, and Adley himself, can find solutions and get him back on track.

 

You'd win that bet.  We could squabble over when "second half of '24" begins.  I cherry picked June 22nd, his BA reached 305 the game prior then starting tailing off.

 

197 as a LHH sine June 22nd, 2024.  234 as RHH.  207 overall.

Before that date, he was 267 as LHH, 300 as RHH.  276 overall.

 

However, I don't think its a left/right thing for his struggles.  LH he's fallen by 70 points, RH he's fallen by 69 points. Whatever has gone wrong with him as impacted both sides roughly equally (dropoff of OPS is pretty equal both sides as well).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Offensively, I'd just like to see him focus on crushing liners up the middle, and filling the gaps. 
If he goes full upper cut, and becomes Captain Pop Up again... that will be very disappointing. 

 

37 doubles in his last 893 ab's is ridiculous.  If he had 40-45 this year, I'd bet he have very strong numbers across the board.

[Slidemaster]

You'd win that bet. We could squabble over when "second half of '24" begins. I cherry picked June 22nd, his BA reached 305 the game prior then starting tailing off.

197 as a LHH sine June 22nd, 2024. 234 as RHH. 207 overall.
Before that date, he was 267 as LHH, 300 as RHH. 276 overall.

However, I don't think its a left/right thing for his struggles. LH he's fallen by 70 points, RH he's fallen by 69 points. Whatever has gone wrong with him as impacted both sides roughly equally (dropoff of OPS is pretty equal both sides as well).

Feels like pitchers may have a book on him and he hasn't adjusted yet.

[jamesdean]

Feels like pitchers may have a book on him and he hasn't adjusted yet.

Considering the length of his decline, that doesn't say much for his baseball acumen. 

[CantonJester]

Considering the length of his decline, that doesn't say much for his baseball acumen. 

 

His baseball acumen is fine. When he's on top of his game he's a master behind the plate. The question is what has caused him to physically breakdown?

[RichardZ]

His baseball acumen is fine. When he's on top of his game he's a master behind the plate. The question is what has caused him to physically breakdown?

I think Rutschman is pretty solid defensively. Master?

[Slidemaster]

I think Rutschman is pretty solid defensively. Master?

Pretty sure he was below average in caught stealing and pop time last year, but I don't remember exactly.

[makoman]

Pretty sure he was below average in caught stealing and pop time last year, but I don't remember exactly.

Pop time, blocking, and framing has always been above average. At times elite.

 

CS was negative last year, 0 in 2023, positive the other years.

 

All per savant. Defense is definitely not a problem IMO. We have also definitely had a number of pitchers past few years who didn't even try to hold runners, don't know how typical that is with other teams though.

[Slidemaster]

Pop time, blocking, and framing has always been above average. At times elite.

CS was negative last year, 0 in 2023, positive the other years.

All per savant. Defense is definitely not a problem IMO. We have also definitely had a number of pitchers past few years who didn't even try to hold runners, don't know how typical that is with other teams though.

If his pop time is above average, but his caught stealing is below average, isn't that an indictment of his arm and throwing accuracy?