18 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

I think it's fair to say that the Orioles' rotation as constructed has one of the widest gaps between their floor and ceiling of any rotation in the sport. With that said, what do you expect from each starting pitcher? How many teams would you say have a rotation that is clearly better than theirs going into the season?

I'm of the opinion that this rotation is far better than it's being given credit for even without another addition, but I'm curious how others view it. I'll post my predictions later in the thread.

[BaltBird 24]

I'm confident in Bradish. Hesitant to get excited about Rogers. I really like Baz, but he's largely unproven. We know what we're going to get from Kremer. I'll feel a lot better if Eflin shows up to ST healthy and ready to go.

[makoman]

I'm confident in Bradish. Hesitant to get excited about Rogers. I really like Baz, but he's largely unproven. We know what we're going to get from Kremer. I'll feel a lot better if Eflin shows up to ST healthy and ready to go.

This is basically how I feel. Bradish being fully healthy and Rogers being like 2025 makes this a formidable group that most teams would envy. If that happens Kremer can be counted on to be solid and the rest likely will be good enough, with Baz and Eflin having some upside. No idea the chances of those things though.

[Slidemaster]

My hot take, and it may wind up aging poorly, is that at this time next year we will be looking at Baz as a co-ace with Bradish.

His stuff is off the charts. He had excellent numbers outside of Steinbrenner field and was probably the victim of bad luck even then. The Orioles don't trade for guys like this unless they think they can help them elevate to another level, and it seems obvious to me that they look at him as someone they can help take the next step.

Speaking of taking the next step, they turned Rogers from a guy who was nearly out of professional baseball to a 5.5 WAR pitcher over half a season. I don't think he'll reach that number again, but I do think he is good. A 4ish WAR season seems very reachable. I would extend him now if possible.

I expect Bradish to be the guy we know. Low 3s ERA. Full season of work. High end #2 or a low end #1 by season's end.

Eflin is health dependent but he is motivated to show he's worth a contract. Kremer is Kremer.

I'm having a hard time coming up with too many teams in the AL who I think have a clearly better rotation. Boston probably does. Seattle does. Toronto does. Who else? Houston? Texas? Detroit? I'm less convinced that they are hands down better, but I would need to take a closer look.

All of this is dependent on health of course, but I think they have the potential to be one of the five best in the AL.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Bradish will be awesome when available.
But after all of the time he’s missed the last two years, how many innings does he have?

Rogers.. I hope he’s a consistent 3 that flashes. Also a question of many innings he can provide.

Baz... like that he regularly took the ball last year. Can he do it again? Can he take a step forward with his stuff and be a league average 3rd starter?

Kremer will a solid 4/5.

Eflin...if he matches Kremer, that's a win.

I would think they slow play Eflin a bit, and Wells begins the year in the rotation. Wells will probably be solid for the 1st half before tiring out.

If they go with Eflin out of the gate or add another starter, Wells can begin the year in the pen and that should help him get through the season.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Another 2/3 starter that you can expect to regularly take the ball and pencil in for 170 quality innings would really help minimize the chance the rotation flames out.


There is potential for the rotation to be solid to good.

There is also potential for things to go sideways.

[RichardZ]

The potential is there. Bradish is a strong #2. Can Rogers do it again? If he can pitch the same and get #2 or #3 numbers, great. Baz is, potentially, a breakout candidate. A healthy Eflin is a #2-3. Kremer is a solid #4. Would be nice if Young and/or Povich take their game to the next level, and a couple of Gibson, German, DeLeon, Watts-Brown burst into the picture.

[ivanbalt]

Great, another season of "I hope it all works out."  Bradish/Rogers potential does make it feel a little better than 2025, but still underwhelming.

[Slidemaster]

Great, another season of "I hope it all works out." Bradish/Rogers potential does make it feel a little better than 2025, but still underwhelming.

Isn't this basically every team though? How many teams would you consider to have a rotation that is a lock to be great? Even with very good rotations on paper, injuries always throw starting pitching into chaos.

FWIW I agree with you to an extent, but I think the odds of this rotation being above league average to good or even very good are far better than last year.

[ivanbalt]

Isn't this basically every team though? How many teams would you consider to have a rotation that is a lock to be great? Even with very good rotations on paper, injuries always throw starting pitching into chaos.

FWIW I agree with you to an extent, but I think the odds of this rotation being above league average to good or even very good are far better than last year.

Yes catastrophic injuries happen like to Burnes and Cole last year.  But the top 2 of the Orioles rotation are Bradish, who's pitched 14 games in 2024/25 and Rogers, who's been up and down throughout his career.  I would say Toronto, NYY and Boston all have better rotations.

 

I love being wrong about the Orioles, but don't have faith at this point.

[Slidemaster]

Yes catastrophic injuries happen like to Burnes and Cole last year. But the top 2 of the Orioles rotation are Bradish, who's pitched 14 games in 2024/25 and Rogers, who's been up and down throughout his career. I would say Toronto, NYY and Boston all have better rotations.

I love being wrong about the Orioles, but don't have faith at this point.

Totally fair, but at this time last year, Crochet was facing the same questions as Bradish without the pedigree. I dunno, I just have confidence it's gonna happen. The O's have the medicals and all the behind the scenes info on Bradish and Rogers and seem confident. Both looked great in limited time last year. I think they'll be fine.

[makoman]

I feel better about Bradish since he came back at the end of the year and was good as ever. Yeah you never know, but he's like 20 months from the surgery now, should be pretty much back to normal.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Totally fair, but at this time last year, Crochet was facing the same questions as Bradish without the pedigree. I dunno, I just have confidence it's gonna happen. The O's have the medicals and all the behind the scenes info on Bradish and Rogers and seem confident. Both looked great in limited time last year. I think they'll be fine.

You have way more confidence in their medical staff than I do then? You know, we were told last off season how every body was healthy. Yeah how did that work out?

 

Now here's my take on the original question.

Bradish - Clearly our best SP and he looked great last summer so high expectations for him.

Rogers - High on him but I want to see a full year of performance. I think he regresses a bit from last year but maybe not.

Baz - Prove it. Big upside for sure but I think guys are making too much out of where he pitched as an excuse.

Kremer - Mr. Reliable. He'll be a fine 4/5 and give us a start every 5 days. Actually think if he can figure out his early season woes hes got #3 upside.

Eflin - No secret on how I view him. I did not want him back. Not buying his woes last year were due to injuries. Hope I am wrong but he sucked. Now lets say it was injuries. Relying on a guy to be in the rotation coming off back surgery scares me.

 

I agree that this group has a really large delta between their collective floor and ceiling. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out but even if they end up toward the ceiling that will not mean Elias built a good rotation. Not going to use hindsight to let him off the hook for not getting a better starter than Baz and Eflin.......yeah I am flogging the dead horse.....lol

[Slidemaster]

You have way more confidence in their medical staff than I do then? You know, we were told last off season how every body was healthy. Yeah how did that work out?

Now here's my take on the original question.
Bradish - Clearly our best SP and he looked great last summer so high expectations for him.
Rogers - High on him but I want to see a full year of performance. I think he regresses a bit from last year but maybe not.
Baz - Prove it. Big upside for sure but I think guys are making too much out of where he pitched as an excuse.
Kremer - Mr. Reliable. He'll be a fine 4/5 and give us a start every 5 days. Actually think if he can figure out his early season woes hes got #3 upside.
Eflin - No secret on how I view him. I did not want him back. Not buying his woes last year were due to injuries. Hope I am wrong but he sucked. Now lets say it was injuries. Relying on a guy to be in the rotation coming off back surgery scares me.

I agree that this group has a really large delta between their collective floor and ceiling. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out but even if they end up toward the ceiling that will not mean Elias built a good rotation. Not going to use hindsight to let him off the hook for not getting a better starter than Baz and Eflin.......yeah I am flogging the dead horse.....lol

A year of unexpected injuries doesn't mean that the medical staff sucks. Bradish has also proven several times over to be more durable than Grayson. Nobody can predict injuries mid-season, but if they think Bradish is healthy as it stands today, I believe them. Doesn't mean he will be healthy in 2 months, but his chances of being injured aren't likely to be any higher than anyone else's.

[Mike B]

You have way more confidence in their medical staff than I do then? You know, we were told last off season how every body was healthy. Yeah how did that work out?

 

Now here's my take on the original question.

Bradish - Clearly our best SP and he looked great last summer so high expectations for him.

Rogers - High on him but I want to see a full year of performance. I think he regresses a bit from last year but maybe not.

Baz - Prove it. Big upside for sure but I think guys are making too much out of where he pitched as an excuse.

Kremer - Mr. Reliable. He'll be a fine 4/5 and give us a start every 5 days. Actually think if he can figure out his early season woes hes got #3 upside.

Eflin - No secret on how I view him. I did not want him back. Not buying his woes last year were due to injuries. Hope I am wrong but he sucked. Now lets say it was injuries. Relying on a guy to be in the rotation coming off back surgery scares me.

 

I agree that this group has a really large delta between their collective floor and ceiling. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out but even if they end up toward the ceiling that will not mean Elias built a good rotation. Not going to use hindsight to let him off the hook for not getting a better starter than Baz and Eflin.......yeah I am flogging the dead horse.....lol

I think your breakdown is fair, but as a fan, I am not sure we are qualified or even know what the medical staff does.  Players get hurt, and doctors and trainers can not stop that.  Pitchers especially get hurt, and if it was the medical staffs fault, every team in baseball needs to fire their staff.  The max effort and spin rate most teams teach is the fault IMO.  

AS for Eflin, if he is healthy I think he will be a good 4th or 5th.  Health is the big question.

[Mashed Potatoes]

High ceiling, high probability for implosion (though certainly better than last season's opening day rotation).

[BSLSteveBirrer]

High ceiling, high probability for implosion (though certainly better than last season's opening day rotation).

This is really my frustration. I agree we have a high ceiling but I think what we really needed was to drastically raise the floor and Elias hasn't done that IMO.

[JoyinMudville]

I think it's fair to say that the Orioles' rotation as constructed has one of the widest gaps between their floor and ceiling of any rotation in the sport. With that said, what do you expect from each starting pitcher? How many teams would you say have a rotation that is clearly better than theirs going into the season?

I'm of the opinion that this rotation is far better than it's being given credit for even without another addition, but I'm curious how others view it. I'll post my predictions later in the thread.

 

My problem is not mainly with the rotation on paper. My problem is that history teaches us that we're going to be dealing with multiple injuries and time on the il for various members of this rotation and, once you factor that into the equation, our pitching looks awfully thin.

[Mashed Potatoes]

This is really my frustration. I agree we have a high ceiling but I think what we really needed was to drastically raise the floor and Elias hasn't done that IMO.

 

Steve Birrer, you and I are in agreement!

 

If our intention is truly to compete for a World Series, then at the moment we're banking on a low probability outcome, that we have outstanding health across the rotation, something that almost never happens. As a soccer super fan you know the value of a stacked bench to turn to, and how that differentiates the true global competitor organizations from the wanna bes.