90 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Basallo is a legit top-10 value guy and he's signed.  Beavers and Mayo are not top-25 prospects, IMO.  Mayo was at his peak but he's no longer a 3B and he's had a rough start.  I think he has top-100 value but not top-25.  Beavers was ranked very highly by one publication I think, but back end top-100 by most others.  Gibson and George are both fringe top-100.

 

Its a huge offer, but it won't be close to the biggest offer for Skenes if he were made available.  I don't think it'd be top-5.

Mayo's prospect ranking was never tied to him standing at 3rd imo.  I've never seen any evaluation of him as a prospect that didn't believe his future was 1st/DH, with some minimal potential of RF due to his arm.   

How you evaluate Mayo imo comes down to how you believe in his bat.  Yes, positional adjustment, etc... but if you think his bat plays, then you are happy to have him and his cheap control.   At any rate, he's a starter for the Pirates for years. 

 

I liked Beavers more than I expected last year, but I'd agree that I don't see him as a top prospect.  As is, we both seem him getting the majority of ab's in a platoon this year with the O's.  He's another day 1 starter for the Pirates, and we did see Baseball America just have him in their Top 25.  They know better than I do. 

 

Gibson and George as fringe Top 100 throw in, isn't nothing. 

 

 

If it's not enough, it's not enough. 

Maybe Bradfield vs. Beavers if fhey prefer that.  Maybe Irish and Aloy over Gibson and George. 

But for them to like an O's offer, they'd have to be fans of Mayo, I agree with that. 

[Mackus]

Mayo's prospect ranking was never tied to him standing at 3rd imo.  I've never seen any evaluation of him as a prospect that didn't believe his future was 1st/DH, with some minimal potential of RF due to his arm. 

 

Yes, it absolutely was.  If he was already a 1B all along he'd have been rated much lower.  You can't handwave away positional adjustments.  Someone who can play 3B is much more valuable than the same bat playing 1B.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yes, it absolutely was.  If he was already a 1B all along he'd have been rated much lower.  You can't handwave away positional adjustments.  Someone who can play 3B is much more valuable than the same bat playing 1B.

Who believed he would ever be an adequate 3rd baseman?  I never saw it. 
If anything, he was dinged as a prospect because they knew he wasn't going to stick there.

[makoman]

Yes, it absolutely was.  If he was already a 1B all along he'd have been rated much lower.  You can't handwave away positional adjustments.  Someone who can play 3B is much more valuable than the same bat playing 1B.

You're certainly right about value, but I can see the argument is that most people being realistic didn't think he'd stick at 3B.

[Mackus]

Alright, maybe he's available for something, but I agree with Mackus that it's a lot more than proposed.

 

I am not sure what could be comparable. Has a superstar who is no longer a prospect (i.e. value clearly established) been traded so early before?

 

Maybe Soto is closest, but Skenes has 1.5 more years of control. 60% more than Soto when traded. He cost a top 10, a guy about to be top 10-20, a top 30, a pitcher who had recently been top 10. Skenes may be more valuable as top 1-2 pitcher in baseball vs OF, plus you have the 60% more control. Double that cost maybe? I don't know.

 

On a year-to-year basis I think Skenes is more valuable than Soto.  I'd argue you'll need twice as much to get Skenes for 4 years as it took to get Soto for 2 1/3 (nitpicking on the fraction; trade was made with 2 months left in 2022).

[Mackus]

Who believed he would ever be an adequate 3rd baseman?  I never saw it. 
If anything, he was dinged as a prospect because they knew he wasn't going to stick there.

 

It was on open question.  Maybe he'd get good enough to stick, maybe he wouldn't.  Maybe he'd be able to handle 3B for a few years before moving off.  Now there is no question.  Value drops when you get that answer.

[BSLChrisStoner]

It was on open question.  Maybe he'd get good enough to stick, maybe he wouldn't.  Now there is no question.  Value drops when you get that answer.

No, there was never a question.  There was never any serious evaluation of him as a prospect that believed he would stick at 3rd. 

 

[Mackus]

No, there was never a question.  There was never any serious evaluation of him as a prospect that believed he would stick at 3rd. 

 

 

Yes, there was.  He wouldn't have been playing 3B in the minors if there wasn't some hope he could play it in the majors.

[makoman]

Fangraphs has been projecting him as a RF since at least 2022. FWIW their positional adjustment is 3B +2.5, RF -7.5, 1B -12.5. So RF would still be considered more valuable than pure 1B now, but much closer. Probably didn't lose a ton of value. I'd agree that he lost some though.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yes, there was.  He wouldn't have been playing 3B in the minors if there wasn't some hope he could play it in the majors.

The O's believe in positional versatility.  Having guys that can move around the diamond.  
In the case of Mayo, it's been clear forever that if he was going to be standing at 3rd... that would be in a worst case, break glass scenario. 

There has never been any serious hope of him sticking there. 

The most encouraging quotes I've ever seen about his defense were Mansolino saying he's worked hard to the point they believed he could be adequate. 

I've never seen 3rd party analysts say they believed he wouldn't have to move.

[Mackus]

The O's believe in positional versatility.  Having guys that can move around the diamond.  
In the case of Mayo, it's been clear forever that if he was going to be standing at 3rd... that would be in a worst case, break glass scenario. 

There has never been any serious hope of him sticking there. 

The most encouraging quotes I've ever seen about his defense were Mansolino saying he's worked hard to the point they believed he could be adequate. 

I've never seen 3rd party analysts say they believed he wouldn't have to move.

 

His rankings on the prospect lists that we all frequent were based on him being a 3B.  The skepticism by individuals of how likely he was to stay was baked into those rankings regarding his defensive value, but there was still the thought that he could play 3B. He'd have been a big prospect even if he was a minor league 1B, the bat and age were the calling cards, but there is a big change in value moving from 3B to 1B and if there wasnt' any hope of him being a 1B he'd have been ranked much lower.

 

You can't seriously say everyone knew he was only a 1B and he still was ranked top-20.  The hope, however slim as anyone might have viewed it, of sticking at 3B at least for a while was a part of him reaching those heights as a prospect.  Much like Basallo's value is based on him having a shot at sticking behind the plate even if part-time.  If he was only a 1B, he wouldn't be top-10.

[BSLChrisStoner]

His rankings on the prospect lists that we all frequent were based on him being a 3B.  The skepticism by individuals of how likely he was to stay was baked into those rankings regarding his defensive value, but there was still the thought that he could play 3B. He'd have been a big prospect even if he was a minor league 1B, the bat and age were the calling cards, but there is a big change in value moving from 3B to 1B and if there wasnt' any hope of him being a 1B he'd have been ranked much lower.

 

You can't seriously say everyone knew he was only a 1B and he still was ranked top-20.  The hope, however slim as anyone might have viewed it, of sticking at 3B at least for a while was a part of him reaching those heights as a prospect.  Much like Basallo's value is based on him having a shot at sticking behind the plate even if part-time.  If he was only a 1B, he wouldn't be top-10.

Sure I can. If anything, he was dinged as a prospect because they knew he wasn't going to stick at 3rd.

[Mackus]

Law quote on Mayo a year ago:

KL: I would do it, because of where they are. I like Coby Mayo a ton. He’s in my top 20 overall, and some of that is proximity. He could step into a major league role for somebody right now. There’s a lot of value in a player being able to do that and still have the kind of upside that Mayo does. There’s some risk with Mayo. We’re not exactly sure where he’s going to end up playing. His swing can get a bit long. I don’t know that he’s going to step in and be productive Day 1 — and I could see the Orioles saying we need to win, we can’t give Coby Mayo 500 at-bats this year because we’re trying to win.

 

"Not sure where he'll end up playing" != "Definitely can't play 3B"

[Mackus]

Sure I can. If anything, he was dinged as a prospect because they knew he wasn't going to stick at 3rd.

 

Alright I can't continue this any further.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Law quote on Mayo a year ago:

 

"Not sure where he'll end up playing" != "Definitely can't play 3B"

"Not sure where he'll end up playing," = Potentially adequate enough to get some starts at 3rd... not good enough to stick there. 

Some ability to occasionally (but not regularly) stand at 3rd and RF, while mostly playing 1st and DH + the bat + the team control  = the value.

 

 

 

BP Annual 2024: 

A big man with a magnificently violent hack, Mayo is probably Baltimore’s best offensive prospect not named Holliday. His future defensive home is almost certainly first base or an outfield corner, but it probably won’t bother folks; this guy can really rake. Despite that busy, chaotic swing, Mayo tends to remain impressively connected and short throughout his motion, which helps play up his imposing pull power. He's an incredibly physical kid, and with his swing decision making trending in a positive direction, this is a potential middle-of-the-order force just a call-up away from Camden Yards.

Aug 24 MLB.com's Callis... "Going To Be A 30 Home Run Guy, Maybe More” But Ultimately Is A First Baseman In The Bigs"

 

Here's one that corrects me... ESPN's Kiley McDaniel to PressBox before '24, "Mayo is either third base with a good shot to stick there but if he isn’t there, then he’s probably at first base so the defensive value is similar.”

May 24... Bowden, "Mayo is underrated in my view as he profiles as a middle-of-the-lineup power bat with 30-homer potential ... All I know is Mayo can flat-out rake. He's getting to the majors this year, and you can put that in cement."

 

Medium Feb. 24, "Mayo’s big issue is he’s not much of a defender over at third base or first base."
https://greenfield-m...ts-cfe1feeacf5e

 

FanGraphs / Longenhagen Feb. 24 confirms he's projected Mayo as a RF for over a year.

 

 

 

 

Coby Mayo's highest ranking on a major national prospect list is No. 8th overall, achieved in both Baseball America's 2024 rankings and Kiley McDaniel’s (ESPN) 2025 preseason rankings. Widely considered a top-15 prospect, he has also been ranked No. 15 by MLB Pipeline and is a top-30 prospect on multiple 2025 lists.

So, he was 8th to 15th in '24...  with multiple sites saying his future wasn't at 3rd.

[Slidemaster]

Lol - Skenes?

Are we all on drugs?

The Pirates are trying to open a small window and acquire talent around him. They aren't trading a guy with that much control who is that good for any cost that any team could reasonably offer. On top of that, he's likely to get TJ in the next several years which would cut his value dramatically.

You could offer the Orioles' top 10 prospects and Holliday to boot and the Pirates would say no. We should also say no to that. There is no trade that is reasonable for that guy, period.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Lol - Skenes?

Are we all on drugs?

The Pirates are trying to open a small window and acquire talent around him. They aren't trading a guy with that much control who is that good for any cost that any team could reasonably offer. On top of that, he's likely to get TJ in the next several years which would cut his value dramatically.

You could offer the Orioles' top 10 prospects and Holliday to boot and the Pirates would say no. We should also say no to that. There is no trade that is reasonable for that guy, period.

It's a pipedream, but the Pirates probably won't contend before they trade him. 

[Slidemaster]

On a year-to-year basis I think Skenes is more valuable than Soto. I'd argue you'll need twice as much to get Skenes for 4 years as it took to get Soto for 2 1/3 (nitpicking on the fraction; trade was made with 2 months left in 2022).

Skenes is also the franchise - the most exciting, most dominant player the Pirates have drafted and developed since Barry Bonds. The backlash would be tremendous, no matter the return. No franchise, even one as stingy as the Pirates, wants that.

He is the most unavailable player in baseball who isn't named Shohei.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Skenes is also the franchise - the most exciting, most dominant player the Pirates have drafted and developed since Barry Bonds. The backlash would be tremendous, no matter the return. No franchise, even one as stingy as the Pirates, wants that.

He is the most unavailable player in baseball who isn't named Shohei.

They should absolutely trade him. 

The O's might not have enough to get him (with what they'd be willing to give up), but Pittsburgh should be trading him.

[Slidemaster]

It's a pipedream, but the Pirates probably won't contend before they trade him.

Everyone thought the same about the Orioles in 2011. Every awful team is awful until they aren't. We may feel like they'll never contend again but I guarantee you they don't feel that way, and I think there's a chance they take a big step forward as soon as this year.

There's no chance he's available. None.