36 replies to this topic

[makoman]

If the Elias era O's had even just 1 post season win, I might be swayed. 

Eh, the Rangers haven't even made the playoffs 8 of the past 9 years, but they have a ring to show for it. Diamondbacks lost in the series to them and have one other playoff win in 14 years. You need to make the playoffs and see what happens.

[weird-O]

Eh, the Rangers haven't even made the playoffs 8 of the past 9 years, but they have a ring to show for it. Diamondbacks lost in the series to them and have one other playoff win in 14 years. You need to make the playoffs and see what happens.

If we're going with that tried and true adage, aren't the O's in a favorable position to already play in Oct? 

 

Genuine question, because I thought someone posted something about them being considered a playoff caliber team as is.

 

But just to reiterate, it's a lot of prospect capitol to spend. That's my main point.   

[Nigel Tufnel]

While the $13M difference in arbitration numbers doesn’t seem like a lot, maybe the price depends on who wins.

 

Skubal won - he'll make $32M.

[makoman]

If we're going with that tried and true adage, aren't the O's in a favorable position to already play in Oct? 

 

Genuine question, because I thought someone posted something about them being considered a playoff caliber team as is.

 

But just to reiterate, it's a lot of prospect capitol to spend. That's my main point.   

Fair enough, I actually don't want to spend whatever it would take for just 1 year of him.

[weird-O]

Fair enough, I actually don't want to spend whatever it would take for just 1 year of him.

Wasn't there a lot of Holliday for Skubal chatter in '23? I think it was just smoke, but imagine that trade. 

[Mashed Potatoes]

Skubal won - he'll make $32M.

 

Would be amazing if this meant that the trade price for him became realistic, but I don't think this actually moves the needle.

[dude]

Would be amazing if this meant that the trade price for him became realistic, but I don't think this actually moves the needle.

 

I think it may move the needle on how fast they'll bail on him this season.  No reason for them not to try and win everything, but if things go south (or not north enough), the larger contract is more savings, whenever.  Whatever they can get now, they can get later OR they make a playoff run.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think it may move the needle on how fast they'll bail on him this season.  No reason for them not to try and win everything, but if things go south (or not north enough), the larger contract is more savings, whenever.  Whatever they can get now, they can get later OR they make a playoff run.

Not true.

[RichardZ]

Not true.

Correct. One strained elbow or lat and the Tigers pay 32M and get no players in return.

[dude]

Correct. One strained elbow or lat and the Tigers pay 32M and get no players in return.

 

well....sure.  I fully acknowledge if he has TJS (or other injury) they won't get anything for him.  Seems like a silly and obvious caveat, but why would we give up anything for a pitcher that is about to be hurt? ....of course we wouldn't give them anything so that case negates each other.

 

He's got a year left.  Most rosters are complete.  Team vans are already unloading equipment in FLA and AZ.  Seems most likely they'll try to compete with him until they can't.  If they trade him now, it's not some absurd haul and the difference between now and trade deadline is that the demand will be more focused (for a difference maker) than a broader competition for services which probably isn't even a thing right now.

 

Should we trade Rogers now to make sure we extract any value he has today?  He might get hurt.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

He can be totally healthy and you aren't getting more in July than you could now.

[mdrunning]

While I understand the premise of this thread, all of this is moot because Detroit isn't trading Skubal. Why get Valdez if you're not planning on pairing up those two in 2026? If Detroit falls out of contention by midseason, then everything changes. For now, though, I think it's obvious they plan on contending this year.

[RichardZ]

well....sure.  I fully acknowledge if he has TJS (or other injury) they won't get anything for him.  Seems like a silly and obvious caveat, but why would we give up anything for a pitcher that is about to be hurt? ....of course we wouldn't give them anything so that case negates each other.
 
He's got a year left.  Most rosters are complete.  Team vans are already unloading equipment in FLA and AZ.  Seems most likely they'll try to compete with him until they can't.  If they trade him now, it's not some absurd haul and the difference between now and trade deadline is that there'll be more focus on a difference maker so the demand will be more focused (for a difference maker) than a broader competition for services which probably isn't even a thing right now.
 
Should we trade Rogers now to make sure we extract any value he has today?  He might get hurt.

I’m not arguing whether the Tigers should trade Skubal now. Just pointing out the obvious that they can get value now before they pay a dime of his contract or they can risk Skubal remaining healthy while they start paying him. You said they’d get the same at the deadline as they’d get now. Maybe not.

[BaltBird 24]

I don't think there's a huge difference between what the Tigers could get now and what they'd likely get in July should they decide to trade Skubal. Do you think the Brewers would've received a significantly less package for Burnes at the deadline in 24? You may even find a team willing to panic at the deadline.

[Mackus]

I think it's overwhelmingly likely they get significantly less for 2 months of Skubal than 6 months.

Not quite linearly, but close to that.

[dude]

I don't think there's a huge difference between what the Tigers could get now and what they'd likely get in July should they decide to trade Skubal. Do you think the Brewers would've received a significantly less package for Burnes at the deadline in 24? You may even find a team willing to panic at the deadline.

 

I agree...or look at the Freddy Peralta trade.  I don't think Sproat is anything significant (despite what they may turn him into) and [Jett Williams] is a guy they could get in July if they fell out.  They only saved 8+M. and they could have saved a third of that later plus similar guys.

 

I'd argue that if they were willing to trade Peralta now, you have to over-pay.  That's a pretty mid trade for a team that can compete hard again in 2026 and doesn't have the needs they had a couple years ago with Burnes.  Maybe Matt Arnold didn't delete those pictures last time him and Stearns were in Vegas.  Maybe Matt Arnold just preferred to deal with his mentor.

 

...but if the Mets collapse and they deal Peralta, they'll recoup a similar package if he's still Freddy Peralta (and obviously not hurt...for RichardZ)

[dude]

I think it's overwhelmingly likely they get significantly less for 2 months of Skubal than 6 months.

Not quite linearly, but close to that.

 

Those circles mostly overlap.  It's also 02-06 so significant packages aren't much of a thing now.  If they have something lined up and signed Valdez to offset trading Skubal, fine, I guess, but why sign Valdez if you are making your roster worse. 

 

Also, what you want for Skubal now versus later may change.  I don't agree with stepping back, but you trade him for [whatever] now and you may wish you pursued a different package based on whatever happens this season.  Compete, buy some time and react in July.