143 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Assuming Valdez and Gallen dont sign here and a TOR/high MOR guy isnt available in a trade( Joe Ryan, etc) who are you targeting in FA or for a trade. Would you rather have Verlander or Giolitto for example in FA or trade for say a Brady Singer. Whos your best bet of the #4-#5 guys.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

If we can't get a TOR guy then I am down to two options.

 

1. Go with what we have.

2. Sign Verlander.

 

Not interested in a trade for a 4/5 guy. Keep those trade pieces and see where we are at come July. Then maybe you can put together a package to get you a starter that can put you over the top.

[jamesdean]

I actually think the rotation as assembled right now will be good enough to compete and be playoff worthy. But it has to stay healthy and the offense needs to improve across the board. Big ifs but doable.

[Mackus]

Bassitt, Verlander, Giolito. Haven't thought about many back end trade targets. I'd probably put Brady at the end of this list.

Would be a really bad job of Elias if the only SP additions are Baz, Eflin, and one of that ilk, but I guess still better than just Baz and Eflin. Alonso improves the overall off-season grade but still close to a failure in the rotation, IMO. Baz upside and the depth of Eflin and another cheap FA would keep it above an F but not by much. I really regret not getting Suarez or (possibly even and) Imai.

[mdrunning]

The Tigers reportedly "have interest" in Giolito, for whatever that's worth.

[Mackus]

The Tigers reportedly "have interest" in Giolito, for whatever that's worth.

Still are the Orioles according to Jon Heyman. I strongly suspect there is no veracity to the report. Even there old news or bad source. I don't believe Giolito is a Boras agent, if he were it'd feel like classic manipulation of Heyman from Boras.


https://www.mlbtrade...as-giolito.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

There were 25 starters last year who had an fWAR of 3.0 or higher.

Singer was 26th at 2.9. Kremer was 28th at 2.6.

Of those 25 starters... only 5 are on teams not expected to contend (within their divisions) in '26.

Projections per FanDuel.

Pittsburgh is +650, 4th in the NL Central (Skenes)
Arizona is +1900, 3rd in the NL West (Kelly)
San Francisco is +2000, 4th in the NL West (Webb)
LAA is +2200, 5th in the AL West (Soriano)
Minnesota is +650, 4th in the AL Central (Ryan)


Cincinnati is borderline at +380, 3rd in the NL Central (Abbott, Singer)


Can you not pry one of these starters?

For Skenes, Pittsburgh can have everything... Mayo, Beavers, Gibson, George, De Leon

That's a ton, but legitimately don't know if it gets Skenes.
Offer might have to start with Basallo, and I'd be good with that.
Yes, I know in reality it's not happening.


Back here in reality... the O's can start the year with Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Kremer, Wells... have time to see where Eflin is....

By the deadline, Wells would be tiring out, and have been replaced by Eflin probably.

So, one of these guys Bassit, Verlander (I'd be more interested in Verlander if he wanted to make a change to reliever), Giolitto, give you another options when there are injuries, but I'd also be annoyed getting to a position where you have to rely on one of them.

I love Bradish, but he's made 14 starts the last two years. How many starts / innings does he have in him?

Rogers was amazing in his 18 starts, but I'm not expecting him to be an ace. I'm hoping he can be a dependable 3, that flashes. He's also a guy that has missed time, His 133 innings in '21 a career high.

Baz we know has a talented arm, and we hope he takes a step forward. I like that he made 31 starts, and 166 innings last year. Those were obvious career highs. Let's see if he can back that up.

I like Kremer as a backend starter, and he will reliably post. That's something.

Wells and Eflin... when healthy / available, will keep you in games. I'd rather have Wells in the bullpen from the start of the year vs. needing to start, so that is one reason I could get on-board with another backend starter if we're going to strike out on Valdez or a trade for a MOR starter or better.



Signing Valdez is really the easiest and most logical move.

Bradish could easily have the better year, but if Valdez was signed today, he's the safest bet to have the best year of any existing Orioles starter.

[85Knight]

I actually think the rotation as assembled right now will be good enough to compete and be playoff worthy. But it has to stay healthy and the offense needs to improve across the board. Big ifs but doable.

This is exactly how I feel. Bradish and Rogers are TOR starters. I'd be more worried about Bradish if he hadn't pitched at all last season but he looked just fine. If Rogers regresses (as expected) he goes from Cy Young to a solid no. 2. The rest of the rotation is fine in their roles.

The only issue is depth but that's the same with every other team. Unfortunately you need almost 10 starters to get through a season in today's game. Adding another starter improves the quantity but right now we have the quality to get it done in the starting 5. If we can't get a FA move on to plan B and see where we're at at the trade deadline.

[Mackus]

I see a lot more plausible downside from Rogers than just a solid number 2.

[BaltBird 24]

I'll be thrilled if Rogers is a solid #2 this year.

[85Knight]

I see a lot more plausible downside from Rogers than just a solid number 2.

I know you're not confident in him but I am. The sample size was big enough to convince me that he's fixed something significant. There's plenty of room for regression and I think he'll be just fine.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Odd offseason so far. Some pretty unexpected things.

 

1. Traded away 6 years of control for a solid hitter but a rental.

2.Traded away bunch of MiL talent for what could be a pretty good starter or a #5.

3. Made a very good signing in Alonso but without making some other move(s) to cut out the log jam at 1B/DH.

4. Signed a closer who may or may not be really good.

5. But missed, so far, on priority #1.

 

So he gets a D from me but it could turn around in an hour to an A if Suarez signs.

[Mackus]

It's "only" 4 years of control for Grayson they dealt away. He was on the roster all of '24 and '25.

You mean Valdez not Suarez. I think it's too far to say that he represents the difference between a D and an A.

You left out Eflin, too. Not a huge move but helps the pitching dept especially if they add someone else good and can in fact treat him as depth.

I'm disappointed that they have only added Helsley to the pen. I thought they'd bring in multiple relievers but seems like they're relying heavily on guys we already have like Strowd and Enns being legit.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Correct Mackus. Trying to play online poker and do this at the same time.....not good.....lol

[TwentyThirtyFive]

This situation is why Im glad he traded for Baz in December. It was a strong package we traded away but it avoided us being in a situation where we have zero leverage negoriating with a top FA pitcher or with other teams about a trade for a FA pitcher

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This situation is why Im glad he traded for Baz in December. It was a strong package we traded away but it avoided us being in a situation where we have zero leverage negoriating with a top FA pitcher or with other teams about a trade for a FA pitcher

Yeah and we have done just what with not losing any leverage?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Btw my guess is weve talked to every decent FA SP. Have to believe Valdez and Gallen are 1 and 2 right now. After that Im sure we have checked in on guys like Bassitt, Verlander, Giolito, Littell.


Cost plays a big part but if the cost wasnt too high Id prefer Singer for 1 year. After that Veelander is the top FA Id target

[Mackus]

Agree that's likely. I think there is a similar sized gap between Valdez and Gallen as between Gallen and everyone else.

Gallen a wild card coming off a bad year but had been really good until '25. I don't think it was a fluke in the sense that it was unlucky or anything, but maybe there is reason to believe it was just a bad season and not a new expected level of performance.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah and we have done just what with not losing any leverage?

We dont have to add another SP right now. We really dont. We will but it isnt a must. Imagine not having Baz in the fold

[Slidemaster]

Odd offseason so far. Some pretty unexpected things.

1. Traded away 6 years of control for a solid hitter but a rental.
2.Traded away bunch of MiL talent for what could be a pretty good starter or a #5.
3. Made a very good signing in Alonso but without making some other move(s) to cut out the log jam at 1B/DH.
4. Signed a closer who may or may not be really good.
5. But missed, so far, on priority #1.

So he gets a D from me but it could turn around in an hour to an A if Suarez signs.

Giving this offseason a D is crazy. Come on man. Many pundits have named us as one of the winners of the off-season as it stands now.