21 replies to this topic

[dude]

This thread IS NOT INTENDED to be a discussion of the quality of the roster or opportunity or 'how we got here' or "what I'd do" or any of that.  This is just intended as a 2026 Baseline Roster reference for where the 2026 roster sits and we can update it throughout the offseason as things change or are finalized (like Arbitration #s, trade, non-tenders, FA signings, whatever)

 

If there's some wild disagreement about a player or potential salary, we can change anything.

 

Presented as a notional lineup, obviously that would be subject to change, largely what they are ending the season using.

 

For purposes of this, I'm putting all Team Control (TC): TC1, TC2 and TC3 at 800k. (I think the min is 780k)

 

Service: 0.0+ = TC1, 1.0+ = TC2, 2.0+ = TC3, 3.0+ ARB1, 4.0+ ARB2, 5.0+ = ARB3 (I use ARB0 for Super 2 to maintain consistency in service years to FA)

Contract: Xyears/yzM 

-----------------------

 

Lineup

2B Holliday (0.80M, TC2)

3B Westburg (0.80M, TC3)

SS Henderson (8.50M, ARB1)

1B Alonso (31.00M, 5/155M contract)

CF Cowser (0.80M TC3)

LF Ward (12.175M, ARB3)

C  Rutschman (7.25M, ARB2)

RF Beavers (0.80M, TC1)

DH Basallo (1.00M, 8/67M - contract)

 

Bench

IF  Mountcastle (6.787M, ARB3)

IF  JJackson (0.80M, TC1)

OF Taveras (2.00M, 1/2M - contract)

OF  O'Neill (16.50M, 2/33M - contract)

 

Starters

1. Bradish (2.80M, ARB1)

2. TRogers (6.20M, ARB3)

3. Baz (3.50M, ARB1)

4. Kremer (5.75M, ARB2)

5. Eflin (8.00M, 1/10M - contract)

 

Bullpen

CL  Helsley (14.00M, 2/28M - contract)

RH  Kittridge (9.00M, 1/9M - contract)

RH  Cano (1.60M, ARB1)

RH  Garcia (0.90M, 1/0.90M - contract /TC2) - 0 options

RH  Wells (2.445M, ARB2)

LH  Akin (3.00M, ARB3)

LH  Enns (2.50M,  1/2.65M - contract w/'27 tm option) - 0 options 

LH  Wolfram (0.80M, TC1)

-------------26

IL/Bautista (2.25M, ARB2)

 

not included:

 

TOTAL SALARY FOR 26+MAN (includes IL and all ARB) = ~152.0M

 

Does not include

Previously deferred money = 5.3M (see post below)  

Rest of 40-man roster = ~2.7M (common to all teams) 

Estimated player benefits = 17.5M (common to all teams)

 

AGAIN this is the start point for where they are today.  We all expect a fair number of changes to the 40-man and 26-man depending on ARB, trades, etc.  

 

We'll just update this as the decisions are made.

[dude]

Orioles deferred payments: Here's what I'll try (again) and if anyone has additional info, we'll update it here and I'll just reflect the total number up in the lead post. 

 

2026-2032: 5.3M from Davis (3.5M) and Cobb (1.8M)
2033-2035: 3.15M from Davis (1.4M) and Cobb (1.75M)

2036-2037: 1.4M from Davis (1.4M)

[dude]

Arbitration: these are the MLBTR projections and are used in the lead post.  COTs has a different set of projections which is about a 2-3M delta.

 

Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8M

Keegan Akin (5.083): $3M

Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6M

Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7M

Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1M

Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8M

Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1M - contract 1/2.25M

Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8M

Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8M

Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6M

[dude]

Orioles trade GRod for Taylor Ward.

 

Have to make the assumption that this is Mountcastle's spot, so I'll go ahead and remove him here.

 

I guess this will lineup with Cowser in CF, Ward in LF and a Beavers/ON'eill platoon in RF.

[dude]

Remove Alex Jackson, include Handley as 3rd C

[Mackus]

Just curious dude, woukd this be easier if we simply tracked the actual 40-man roster rather than project the 26-man?

I think there is a chance they don't carry a third catcher, for example. At least they shouldn't.

[dude]

Just curious dude, woukd this be easier if we simply tracked the actual 40-man roster rather than project the 26-man?

I think there is a chance they don't carry a third catcher, for example. At least they shouldn't.

 

For this exercise (imo) the 26 is what matters.  That identifies the needs and holes.  You can't have most contracts in the minors.  The 26 is what generates the payroll and the additional spots have a modest consequences.  Options etc impact the 26.

 

As far as the 3rd catcher, we'll see.  I think if they're using the C/DH for both then carrying a 3rd catcher makes sense.  fwiw, I like MH a lot (one interview) and hope he's on the team.  I don't know who we should have on the bench in lieu of a 3rd C.

[dude]

Whatever.  Probably sort out at some point somehow.

 

Scratched 3rd C and put Mountcastle back on. 

Suarez out and I'll throw Selby in there for now since he has 0-options. 

[dude]

Added Ryan Helsley.  2/28M.  Assume it's 14/14 until we get the breakdown.

[dude]

Added Pete Alonso, 5/155M.  Assume it's 31M per pending additional info.

 

Reported as a 12.5M s/b, 18.5M in 2026 and 31M per for the other 4. 

 

We'll just leave it at 31M in 2026 in the lead post (I don't think the specific distinction is important here)

[dude]

Add Shane Baz in trade from Rays.  ARB1 projection is 3.2M.  (He was a Super2 so some outlets may show him as ARB2, which I always feel is misleading).

[dude]

Add Zach Eflin.  Signed 1/10M.  I'll show 1/8M in the lead post and not distinguish between the s/b and salary. 

 

Wells to bullpen.

 

The 2M is the mutual b/o and he'll in all likelihood get that but it's not technically 2026 salary today.  That 2M typically gets lost in the shuffle between seasons (not really 2027 salary either) so account for it in your mind however you like.

[Mackus]

Arbitration settlements starting to come in...

$8.5M for Gunnar Henderson
$12.175M for Taylor Ward
$6.787M for Ryan Mountcastle (and a $7.5M team option for 2027)
$7.25M for Adley Rutschman
$5.75M for Dean Kremer
$2.445M for Tyler Wells
$6.2M for Trevor Rogers
$2.3M for Shane Baz

$1.6M for Yennier Cano

Akin and Bradish did not agree to deals and exchanged figures.  Akin and the O's filed at $3.375M vs $2.975M.  Bradish and the O's files at $3.55M to $2.875M.

[BaltBird 24]

No offense to Ryan Mountcastle, but he shouldn't be making more than Dean Kremer.

[RichardZ]

Was it O’Hearn who also gave away one free agent year with a team option? Not that Mountcastle figures to be a big time FA after this season but why agree to a team option? It’s like Elias had some kind of leverage.

[Mackus]

No offense to Ryan Mountcastle, but he shouldn't be making more than Dean Kremer.

 

I know you know this, but its just not how the arbitration system works.  Each year you get a raise over your previous salary.  How big the raise is depends on how good of a season you had.  But the baseline is whatever you already made and you almost always get a raise (technically teams can offer a slight paycut but almost never do). 

 

For another example, Gunnar shouldn't be making less than Taylor Ward, but both numbers make sense.  In fact Ward got less than expected and Gunnar more, but still Ward is making about 50% more this year.

[RichardZ]

Does the team option make RM more attractive in a trade or are they really planning on moving forward with him on the 26 man OD roster?

[Mackus]

Was it O’Hearn who also gave away one free agent year with a team option? Not that Mountcastle figures to be a big time FA after this season but why agree to a team option? It’s like Elias had some kind of leverage.

 

Elias constantly gets guys to agree to this.  O'Hearn, Perez, Coulombe are a few that I recall.  Think there were more.  It's amazing and I don't understand it from the player's perspective.  Usually its after the arbitration deadline when he's stopped negotiating a one-year deal and then the players have to decide between a hearing or agreeing to a multi-year extension.  This is the first one I recall coming before the number exchange deadline, but maybe some of the earlier ones were at this point.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Does the team option make RM more attractive in a trade or are they really planning on moving forward with him on the 26 man OD roster?

Yeah I'd like to understand this because I don't know why they just didn't release him in the first place unless a Mayo trade is imminent.

[Mackus]

Does the team option make RM more attractive in a trade or are they really planning on moving forward with him on the 26 man OD roster?

 

It absolutely makes him more attractive.  The scale there is small, and he may still be a net-negative at nearly $6M for 2026, but its a very reasonable option with no buyout (unless it hasn't been reported yet).  Zero downside, some upside.