260 replies to this topic

[cprenegade]

I lierally don't know what DVOA is. I'm a bad fan 

 

You aren't missing anything.  It's just a statistic that means about as much as any other statistic.  Nothing different than any CBS, ESPN, or Pete Prisco power ratings.  

[BaltBird 24]

I get people are mad about Tucker, but Loop ain't it. I'd sign Tucker tomorow. Even if it's not him, they need another kicker for next year

They certainly don't trust Loop from 50+. Even inside kicks have been shaky, rarely splitting the uprights. He had a more than a couple very near misses in close. I won't call him a bust, yet, though. He definitely has the leg, just not the accuracy yet.

[BSLMikeLowe]

With kickers most of it comes down to form and confidence. Both of those tend to improve with experience. From what I’ve seen of Loop a bigger issues seems to be kickoffs. But because that’s so completely new to him, since in college the objective is usually still to kick the ball into or out of the end zone so it isn’t returned, then patience is probably warranted there too. Also their kickoff coverage has really stunk this season, so that probably doesn’t help with perception.

[BSLJamieSieck]

I lierally don't know what DVOA is. I'm a bad fan

It's supposed to be an all encompassing metric that measures value against the "average" by weighting plays relative to a situation. For example, when looking at offensive DVOA, a 3 yard rush on 3rd and more is looked at as more valuable than a 3 yard rush on 2nd and 15.

I think it's in a similar vein as OPS+.

Nevertheless, it's something that can be used as a discussion point. However, all of the football metrics are quite imperfect, in my opinion. The folks compiling any of these grades have no idea what the play call is and/or what the player's assignment is within any given play.

For example, a CB lets a WR run past him on 9 route because he has underneath responsibility and is supposed to have help over the top. During the play, the deep safety jumps a crossing route, rather than sticking to his assignment. In the scenario, PFF will ding the CB with a bad grade on that play. (I know this for a fact because I had an in depth conversation with the PFF guys in 2011/2012 and they confirmed this)

In other words, take all of the football metrics with a grain of salt.

[Biggsy]

Big part of what I wanted to talk about today. 3rd and shorts and even mediums are made for teams to have to worry about Lamars legs. Need that threat to be the kind of offense we want to be. Either Lamar isnt 100% or they are saving it for later for whatever reason. He has to be a threat to run.

I eas listening to the radio for the first half, they kept emphasizing how the Vikings edges were both crashing hard down the line on any inside handoff. Were begging Monken to call read options to take advantage of the aggressiveness.


Lamar's hamstring is probably not 100% yet. They did call some straight Lamar runs in key moments though. I loved the Andrews toss play on the fake tush push. I would bet a lot of money they have a Andrews pop pass out of that tush push formation as well.

Regardless, if you're protecting Lamar's lower body while he's healing, it makes sense. Only run when you have to. But thats also what makes him special. I feel hes proven he can be a great passer from the pocket. But its his running ability that makes him a top 3 QB.

I do believe we're seeing a little bit of rust as well. Specifically, it seems like Lamar and Likely aren't synced up yet. The next 3 weeks need to, and should be wins. If they stay healthy, their is no reason they shouldn't be 7-5 with Pittsburgh coming into town.

[BSLChrisStoner]

You aren't missing anything.  It's just a statistic that means about as much as any other statistic.  Nothing different than any CBS, ESPN, or Pete Prisco power ratings.  

All statistics are not equal.

 

DVOA has flaws like anything else, but I think it's the best all encompassing snap shot on teams available to the public. 

 

DVOA explainer

https://ftnfantasy.c.../dvoa-explainer

 

With all statistics and power ratings (and own eyes) etc..  getting multiple data points helps arrive at a better conclusion, so I'm all for that. 

 

 

 

 

DVOA flaws per AI:

 

The main flaws with DVOA are that it's results-oriented, doesn't fully account for penalties, struggles with small sample sizes early in the season, and has limited predictive power. It also has difficulty separating the performance of different units, such as offensive line from quarterback, and it cannot measure 'lucks' or player injuries. The proprietary methodology also makes it less transparent than some other analytics, such as public EPA models. 

[Mackus]

It's supposed to be an all encompassing metric that measures value against the "average" by weighting plays relative to a situation. For example, when looking at offensive DVOA, a 3 yard rush on 3rd and more is looked at as more valuable than a 3 yard rush on 2nd and 15.

I think it's in a similar vein as OPS+.

OPS+ doesn't weight plays like that. It's just adjusted to league average and environment (i.e. park effects).

WPA (win probability added) weighs the impact of the production, such as late in the game means more or a grand slam is worth more than a solo HR. So that's more similar to what you described, although it's an individual stat and not a team stat like DVOA. Or maybe there is an individual DVOA, too? I'm not well versed in that stat.

[NewMarketSean]

It wasn't pretty but I'll take it.

 

I'd feel very confident if we are playing our best football in the last 2-3 weeks of the season heading into the playoffs.

 

They had everyone back and still looked like a team in disarray. They need to be firing on all cylinders at the right time.

[Biggsy]

It wasn't pretty but I'll take it.

I'd feel very confident if we are playing our best football in the last 2-3 weeks of the season heading into the playoffs.

They had everyone back and still looked like a team in disarray. They need to be firing on all cylinders at the right time.

Honestly, optimally, the go on a run and win the next 5. Because the last 3 weeks against the Pats, and at Pittsburgh and Green Bay is going to be a tough stretch to end it.

[BSLJamieSieck]

OPS+ doesn't weight plays like that. It's just adjusted to league average and environment (i.e. park effects).

WPA (win probability added) weighs the impact of the production, such as late in the game means more or a grand slam is worth more than a solo HR. So that's more similar to what you described, although it's an individual stat and not a team stat like DVOA. Or maybe there is an individual DVOA, too? I'm not well versed in that stat.

DVOA is a team stat. I was just talking about the relativity part of it when referencing OPS+. In that both metrics compare against a league average as a part of their formula.

[Mike B]

good game overall

 

Play calling is still suspect.

 

We're first and goal from around the six and you don't run it three times? Instead we settle for the field goal. 

 

Bizarre to me.

We have to pass on the goal line at times.  The center of our line allows too many plays where the runner gets hit behind the LOS in short yardage.

[hallas]

I eas listening to the radio for the first half, they kept emphasizing how the Vikings edges were both crashing hard down the line on any inside handoff. Were begging Monken to call read options to take advantage of the aggressiveness.


Lamar's hamstring is probably not 100% yet. They did call some straight Lamar runs in key moments though. I loved the Andrews toss play on the fake tush push. I would bet a lot of money they have a Andrews pop pass out of that tush push formation as well.

Regardless, if you're protecting Lamar's lower body while he's healing, it makes sense. Only run when you have to. But thats also what makes him special. I feel hes proven he can be a great passer from the pocket. But its his running ability that makes him a top 3 QB.

I do believe we're seeing a little bit of rust as well. Specifically, it seems like Lamar and Likely aren't synced up yet. The next 3 weeks need to, and should be wins. If they stay healthy, their is no reason they shouldn't be 7-5 with Pittsburgh coming into town.

Picking nits but at least in the regular season hes a top 1 qb with his running ability IMO and a top 3 as a pure passer.

[Mike B]

I think the team played well yesterday.  The Vikings are a decent team and their stadium is probably the loudest in the NFL.  It ook awhile to settle in  but I felt good from the 20 minute mark in the first half on.  Some nice things starting to happen.

1.  Lamar still does not look right but he is getting stronger.  As he goes the Ravens go, and that is not a bad thing.

2.  The game is starting to slow down for Starks.  He had a number of good plays including one on special teams.  The pick was a very nice play.  He read the play closed quick and made a good catch.  He is getting there.

3.  #39 Jackson is a heck of a special teams player.  He is a heat seeking missile covering kicks.  Great move getting him to the 53.

4.  I thought Stanley had a good game.  The spike after the Hill TD may have caused a quake.

5.  Ro and Teddy Buchanan had good games.  #40 is going to be a  good player and has a good teacher in Smith.  I still thought Ro caught that ball.

6.  The Steelers got their asses kicked by Harb's little brother.  1 game back.  Don't look back jackasses, someone is coming fast.

[jamesdean]

At this point, I'll take a cardboard cutout of Marshall Yanda at guard over Faalele. Try Cleveland, try Emery Jones, try anything else. This experiment has been a colossal failure; time to admit and move on.

And a very nit picky thing on the defensive side, why did Wiggins give up on the 4th qtr TD throw to Nailor? It appeared to me that he easily could've made a play on the ball but he just kind of stopped. Did he pick up the path of the throw and thought it was going out of bounds? It was weird and it didn't set well with me.

I thought Emory Jones was close to returning but still no sign of him. And Cleveland must be in a doghouse that's encased in 20,000 PSI concrete. I refuse to believe they're worse than the human turnstiles that are out there right now. For whatever reason, Harbs thinks their the bee's knees. I don't wish an injury on anyone but apparently, that's the only way something will change.

[Pedro Cerrano]

US Bank stadium is incredible. Vikings fans are depressed lol

[Biggsy]

2. The game is starting to slow down for Starks. He had a number of good plays including one on special teams. The pick was a very nice play. He read the play closed quick and made a good catch. He is getting there.

Ince acquiring Gilman, Starks has PFF ratings of 91.2 and 90. Top tier elite as far as their standards go.

Not sure what changed outside of Gilman. But dude has been balling out the past 2 games. would love to see it continue to this level.

[NewMarketSean]

US Bank stadium is incredible. Vikings fans are depressed lol

 

8 false starts at home. They have every right to feel that way after that game.

[jamesdean]

8 false starts at home. They have every right to feel that way after that game.

Beyond absurd.  That would be unacceptable even for a visiting team. 

[Mike B]

8 false starts at home. They have every right to feel that way after that game.

If you had said a team was going to have 8 false starts on Sunday, I would have been sure it was the Ravens given the noise.

We had 1 (Vorhees) and the Vikings 8.  The RT jumped 4 times.  Incredible.

Nice job by the Ravens only having 1.

[jamesdean]

If you had said a team was going to have 8 false starts on Sunday, I would have been sure it was the Ravens given the noise.
We had 1 (Vorhees) and the Vikings 8. The RT jumped 4 times. Incredible.
Nice job by the Ravens only having 1.

To a certain degree, you can credit the Ravens pass rush for at least some of those false starts. Usually if OL are jumping with no crowd noise, its because they're getting manhandled and trying get early leverage. But still, 8 false starts is ridiculous.