216 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

Yeah if you value Kremer for two years over a top 5 prospect in an already deep system just keep him. Maybe use Grayson in relief for 2026. But I just think Wells/Young are very comparable with maybe more upside so I’m personally trading Kremer while his value is highest.

[Mike B]

Just a hunch but I think the Orioles and the Twins will get together and make a trade.

 

I am hoping for Joe Ryan, but Lopez would work too.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Lopez had shoulder and forearm issues this year. That spooks me enough to be off of him

[Mike B]

Lopez had shoulder and forearm issues this year. That spooks me enough to be off of him

Yeah, I thought he recovered but saw he was still dealing with some issues. 

You're right, we got enough of our own injury concerns and don't need to take on some one else's problems.

 

I would be a big fan of acquiring Joe Ryan. A top 3 Bradish Rogers and Ryan would stack up well.

[Mike B]

Ryan would also not be free agent eligible until 2028, so we would have him for the minimum of 2 years.  

 

I have no interest in trading for a rental.

[dude]

Here’s my plan, but there are plenty of iterations that would work.

https://oriolesonthe...fseason-v10-561

Some overall comments...

 

1) I'm curious about your use of the phrase "it's meant to be a pipedream".  What you've proposed isn't that hard to get to.  The players you discuss are either available or reasonably available.  I think you have to do more to get them (more later), but you've already suggested you'd do whatever to get there, so fair enough, you could have this Team.

 

From an action perspective, it could certainly be a 'pipedream' because that's more ML roster action (moves above a 1 on a 0-5 scale) than has been accomplished in the last 7 years combined. 

 

2) You didn't include it, but I think that's around 160M.  That was using simple structure and obviously you could change some things now and later (bonuses, buyouts, etc)

 

3) I think you DO need to do more with the bullpen.  I'm not negative on the group that's here because of my general view of bullpens and I'm ok leaning into the next group of arms coming up, but you're carrying a lot of risk there without some more experienced reinforcements that can generate some results while you wait for a layer of arms to mature some.

 

4) My issues/concerns center more around collective Performance.  We've solved one of the 'group' issues, but you are leaning even more into Boras clients. I just think we need a dynamic that leans more into "Team".  Fan of Buxton, but not sure he solves that by himself.  The things I'll suggest won't move the Talent perception much (that's notionally fine), but change the non-Talent perspectives.  

[dude]

some additional comments on the specifics....

 

1) I don't think that's a Cease contract before maybe March (then you get to include an opt out).  I get you want to suggest fewer years at a higher AAV, but that's not the way Boras has worked.  He'll want a higher total value (done many, many times) so if Cease is your guy (and I'm not sure why he is for anything close to that), you'll get pushed up to 175-200M with more years.  Why do we think he's something different than the last 4+ years?

 

2) Williams, similar contract perspective issues.  You want to leverage an off-year to get a 3-year off-year AAV....I just don't think that's the answer (same point in previous Rogers discussion) for what the player/agent is looking for.  Not arguing you can't get him, you said you go further, so fine, but you are probably in a 5-year deal to get him away from a 2-year deal with an opt out.

 

3) Maybe you have inside info, but I have no idea what the argument for Coulombe wanting to come back would be.

 

4) I think the Twins trade is way off. Discussed in the CF thread.  Not sure if you're trying to trade for Lopez and Buxton as a dump, but they aren't.  I support an argument for checking in heavy on Buxton and making a pitch, but my guess it would be more significant than you're describing.  That's fine, you can ramp up a deal and do more, contracts, etc, but more aggressive, more complexity, more everything which certainly hasn't been this FO (therefore...pipedream?).

 

5) I like Kremer (everyone realize he was 35th in MLB in qualified ERA?) and no issues trading him.  I think the DBacks are an interesting team for something like that, but don't really get the trade you proposed.  Not sure if you're just trying to get rid of Honeycutt, but he's essentially the same guy as Druw Jones right now (Jones got best defensive and Honeycutt was 3rd), defense-speed floor and try to find the bat. Given the DBacks OF, I'd guess Waldshmidt isn't 'reasonably' available.  Again, all of that is fine, it's just a different trade that likely would lean into the only thing Elias has done so far which is a volume the other team cares less about.  Give Buxton his 3rd year and see where Honeycutt winds up in a couple years.

 

one more comment....I know the narrative on how many starters everyone needs, but from a multi-year perspective, you aren't really building a path for someone like Trey Gibson.  I'd be more about accepting risk at #5 knowing a guy like Young and then maybe Gibson is going to get some run in 2026...sure...everything will work out...but you're putting a lot of effort and money into creating a top5 .  For example, in something like this, you are probably trading GRod in some way and let Suarez work #5 expecting Gibson to get more of a direct opportunity at some point. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You got a lot of reading to do Bob. Good luck

[BobPhelan]

I used Baseball Trade Values as that is the fairest way to do it without using conjecture, obviously individual teams have their own valuation system and targets. Contracts I’m just using my best guess.

The pipe dream thing is specific to Buxton because he recently said he had no plans to waive his no trade clause.

Kremer trade - I threw in Honeycutt for s&gs, BTV has Dean worth more than Waldschmidt alone.

[BaltBird 24]

I've got an oddly optimistic feeling about Grayson.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Do we know if FA is expected to be slower and tepid because of what seems certain to be impending labor issues. Not trying to make preemptive excuses for the Os but Im wondering if ts a slow year across the league.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Do we know if FA is expected to be slower and tepid because of what seems certain to be impending labor issues. Not trying to make preemptive excuses for the Os but Im wondering if ts a slow year across the league.

If that is the case wouldn't that make it easier for the O's to make a move early?

[weird-O]

Do we know if FA is expected to be slower and tepid because of what seems certain to be impending labor issues. Not trying to make preemptive excuses for the Os but Im wondering if ts a slow year across the league.

I'm curious why a potential work stoppage would slow the FA market. 

[dude]

If that is the case wouldn't that make it easier for the O's to make a move early?

I'm curious why a potential work stoppage would slow the FA market. 

 

Should create more opportunity (agree with Steve)....so whereever there's a guy with control/contract into the work stoppage risk, everyone should want to get money on the books in the case of a lockout.  That's not just FAs, that has a lot to do with current control too.

 

Rogers: discussed in the other thread, he may not give you a bargain into FA years (4 years per suggestions), but it could make sense to get one FA year locked in and make sure you're under contract.

 

Adley: one of the most important things I think the Orioles could do is get any year into FA with Adley.  My guess is there's a background challenge and just getting any contract locked in removes that challenge.  He has 2 years of control, but no contract for year 2...so he guarantees money by doing a 3-year deal and then has money across, reduces risk and maybe frees him up some to perform. 

 

Every player that is TC or ARB should want to get something on the books, FAs should want to get 2 years min (so a lot of 2 years with an opt out) if they aren't getting whatever bigger deal they want..

[dude]

I'll throw an off-season outcome in here.  As in the case with Bob's and anyone else's...there's multiple ways to do this and you can go a number of ways at 2B, RF, Bench, SP, BP.  This one (I think) is easy to do, the payroll is about 130M, and it achieves my roster goals.  I'll do this without details, but we can do them.  One thing,...this leaves out a lot of value (in trades) that isn't described here. 

 

RF Reynolds

2B Westburg

SS Henderson

3B Arenado

C  Rutschman

DH Basallo

1B Mayo

LF Cowser

CF Doyle

 

Bench: Handley, JJackson, Carlson, Mateo

 

SP: Sonny Gray, McClanahan, Bradish, Rogers, Suarez

 

BP: Suarez, Rogers, Rogers, Akin, Wells, Enns, Strowd, Garcia 

[BobPhelan]

You traded Holliday but for who? You got a bunch of old and busted players tho, I hate it.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You traded Holliday but for who? You got a bunch of old and busted players tho, I hate it.

I just looked at the whole roster he listed. Im not the biggest Holliday fan but there is no new player anywhere close to being worth Holliday. Dude is a loon


I suspect Holliday has something to do with acquiring McClanahan. Guy hasnt pitched for 2 whole years. No idea when he will be back or how he will perform.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also damn you Phelan for making me read and respond to that nonsense

[BobPhelan]

I just looked at the whole roster he listed. Im not the biggest Holliday fan but there is no new player anywhere close to being worth Holliday. Dude is a loon


I suspect Holliday has something to do with acquiring McClanahan. Guy hasnt pitched for 2 whole years. No idea when he will be back or how he will perform.

I’m bullish on Holliday but would still be willing to deal him in a big shakeup. But I’m not trading him for aging veterans and/or big injury question marks.

Some players with similar trade value according to BTV: MacKenzie Gore, Tanner Bibee, Shane Baz, Jackson Jobe, Riley Greene, Cade Horton, Nick Lodolo, Logan Gilbert.

[makoman]

I’m bullish on Holliday but would still be willing to deal him in a big shakeup. But I’m not trading him for aging veterans and/or big injury question marks.

Some players with similar trade value according to BTV: MacKenzie Gore, Tanner Bibee, Shane Baz, Jackson Jobe, Riley Greene, Cade Horton, Nick Lodolo, Logan Gilbert.

Is there a reason to think BTV is accurate? Like back checking their values against real trades that actually happened? I guess it’s cause Holliday has in most cases 2 or more extra years of control, and maybe I’m just not high on him, but most of those names don’t feel very realistic 1 for 1 deals.