216 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

Would not hate trading for Brendan Donovan at all, good shout.

[jamesdean]

Would not hate trading for Brendan Donovan at all, good shout.

Never heard of the guy but I just looked at his stats, and he seems like a solid OBP hitter.  Something the Orioles desperately need. 

[Mike B]

Would not hate trading for Brendan Donovan at all, good shout.

I think he is a better version of Ramon Urias, and one that can play the outfield.

The only downside is he is another left handed hitter.  I think we need a couple of right handed hitters especially if we are going to move Mountcastle.

[russsnyder]

Cowser's 2024 is better hitting than Hays typically puts up but his 2025 was not. So if you think 2025 was a downward trend then I can see preferring Hays offensively. If you think 2025 was a bad year, then Cowser is the better hitter.

Hays is kind of like Ryan Mountcastle in that he's consistent but without much upside. 105 wRC+ for his career, always been between 96 and 111.

Cowser we'll know more about after this coming season but he was 119 in 2024 and then slumped to 83 this year.

I'd rather have Cowser in 2026 and beyond. I'll bet on the youth overcoming the volatility. And that's before assessing that he's a much better defender.

Good analysis.

My point was that Hays was the better hitter in 2025.

The Orioles made the right choice. Cowser is younger, better defensively, and has some upside left

They are also similar because they both play hard and have had injuries as a result. Cowser having the more serious ones as of late.

[BaltBird 24]

I know the advanced metrics aren't always right and some guys hate it, but there's some hope or optimism that this was just a weird, bad season compounded with injuries.

I'd much rather have Cowser than Hays going forward.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I know the advanced metrics aren't always right and some guys hate it, but there's some hope or optimism that this was just a weird, bad season compounded with injuries.

I'd much rather have Cowser than Hays going forward.

There is nothing flukey about him striking out 35% of the time. Its just a number you cant live with.

[Slidemaster]

I find it interesting that so many people care about strikeout percentages in the "a strikeout is just another out," era.

[BaltBird 24]

There is nothing flukey about him striking out 35% of the time. Its just a number you cant live with.

It's absolutely concerning. If he can get back to his 2023/24 of 28-30% I think you can live with that.

He has to find a way to recognize offspeed stuff better. Anyone with a change up can basically eat him alive.

[Mike B]

I find it interesting that so many people care about strikeout percentages in the "a strikeout is just another out," era.

I hate the idea that some in baseball think strikeouts are just another out.

I am old so I still believe putting the ball in play matters.  Good things can happen when you make contact.

I think the Blue Jays and the Mariners are proving that.

[Slidemaster]

I hate the idea that some in baseball think strikeouts are just another out.
I am old so I still believe putting the ball in play matters. Good things can happen when you make contact.
I think the Blue Jays and the Mariners are proving that.

I agree.

[dude]

Hays is a league averageish hitter who can't field well but has a good arm and is always hurt. Sounds a lot like O'Neill who everybody hates. He'll be on his 4th team in 3 years next year, which maybe even signifies something to the Performance Formula^TM folks. I can understand wanting to move on from Cowser but there's other players.

 

Feels like I should respond to this.  I get the need to try what you're doing, but you continue to miss the point.  It's not a WAR or injury analysis. 

 

Hays was part of Teams that wildly overperformed expectations.  For the WAR crowd, you have to explain how the Orioles added 50 wins between 2021 and 2023 with no products of rebuilding, no significant FA signings, a modest payroll, no top prospects from other organizations....just a team that came together and performed their asses off. ....to the point they set the AL and modern record for consecutive no-sweep series'.  That was a crazy outcome.  When you ask "how can we know anything?" ....we know THOSE results.  Some want to try and justify thru rebuilding or whatever, but nobody can explain.  So when I said I wanted to extend Hays and Mullins and McCann, it's an expression of some perceptions of their roles in the non-Talent portion of the Team.

 

In his 5th year in STL, the Cards go from 4 straight playoff years to their far worst win total this century.  One of the major changes they made was giving away O'Neill.  I can't tell you that had anything to do with anything, but he gets traded to the RedSox, they miss the playoffs and he's got 31 HR and an  .847 OPS and the RedSox don't risk him accepting a QO.  Do they hate draft picks? Then Scott Boras is trying to push him onto the Orioles early in the offseason.  No warning bells? None?  Then watch his press conference and compare it to James McCann's presser to the media.

 

You want to make the Team issue, but the Orioles should have never entered 2024 with him on the Team.  If you don't want him (and that whole group of guys), that's fine, that's a choice, but don't hang onto the guys you told that you are riding out and expect exceptional results.  It's the opposite of what Elias should have done.  Then we double down on that in 2025 and the results are even worse. The Phillies are a veteran team and Hays in dealing with a significant illness.  He signs for a year in Cincy and Terry Francona thinks he make a difference on a young team.  fwiw, if I'm the KC FO, I want Mullins and Hays in my OF in 2026.

 

Every situation is going to wind up with a series of complexities and so what, you try to find the things that work.  In Baltimore, they've moved away from something that was working and then it didn't work last year.  If you think it's random or injuries or whatever, great, do nothing.  Everything is fine.

[makoman]

Feels like I should respond to this.  I get the need to try what you're doing, but you continue to miss the point.  It's not a WAR or injury analysis. 

 

Hays was part of Teams that wildly overperformed expectations.  For the WAR crowd, you have to explain how the Orioles added 50 wins between 2021 and 2023 with no products of rebuilding, no significant FA signings, a modest payroll, no top prospects from other organizations....just a team that came together and performed their asses off. ....to the point they set the AL and modern record for consecutive no-sweep series'.  That was a crazy outcome.  When you ask "how can we know anything?" ....we know THOSE results.  Some want to try and justify thru rebuilding or whatever, but nobody can explain.  So when I said I wanted to extend Hays and Mullins and McCann, it's an expression of some perceptions of their roles in the non-Talent portion of the Team.

 

In his 5th year in STL, the Cards go from 4 straight playoff years to their far worst win total this century.  One of the major changes they made was giving away O'Neill.  I can't tell you that had anything to do with anything, but he gets traded to the RedSox, they miss the playoffs and he's got 31 HR and an  .847 OPS and the RedSox don't risk him accepting a QO.  Do they hate draft picks? Then Scott Boras is trying to push him onto the Orioles early in the offseason.  No warning bells? None?  Then watch his press conference and compare it to James McCann's presser to the media.

 

You want to make the Team issue, but the Orioles should have never entered 2024 with him on the Team.  If you don't want him (and that whole group of guys), that's fine, that's a choice, but don't hang onto the guys you told that you are riding out and expect exceptional results.  It's the opposite of what Elias should have done.  Then we double down on that in 2025 and the results are even worse. The Phillies are a veteran team and Hays in dealing with a significant illness.  He signs for a year in Cincy and Terry Francona thinks he make a difference on a young team.  fwiw, if I'm the KC FO, I want Mullins and Hays in my OF in 2026.

 

Every situation is going to wind up with a series of complexities and so what, you try to find the things that work.  In Baltimore, they've moved away from something that was working and then it didn't work last year.  If you think it's random or injuries or whatever, great, do nothing.  Everything is fine.

The point you continue to miss as that you don't know anything about these guys and who they are but you think you know everything because you watch a lot of games and read a lot of articles and think anyone who hires Boras is a locker room cancer. I'll do what you do--the Phillies don't have a talent problem, they have a WS caliber team but just can't quite break through. Any little thing could help, so if Hays is the glue answer that brings everything together why didn't they see it first hand when they had him and do whatever they could to bring him back? Like I said, he'll be on his 4th team in 3 years next year unless the Reds pick up 12M, which seems doubtful but we'll see, seems like he isn't the locker room culture solution or somebody would keep him around. But I'll admit I have no idea. I'll bet the Mets don't resign Mullins after he hit .182 for them even though they have plenty of talent too and could probably use help in the locker room.

 

I don't disagree that O'Neill seems like a negative all around, the things you mention are certainly signs, but it's still all uninformed guesswork. It's an easy way to bash Elias though. 

[dude]

Again, this is a strawman that I never said.  When you hire Boras - and he's the only agent I'll say this about - you know the players' priority.  THAT is why they hire Boras.  Other players are like that, but they need to reveal more.  You want to ignore all of the history that we know, whatever, leave your head in the sand.

 

If you want some most recent, relative perspective, ....

 

Some more perspective is watch what Boras is doing in the Skubal situation.  

 

I get the notion that people will say "hey, he's just doing his job, doing everything he can for his client"....that's fine, but that means you (the player) are ok with the low character, hypocritical approach for representation where you force the story to be about something other than the Team.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

At the end of the day talent overcomes a lot of  potential clubhouse "issues." Not to say those non performance factors aren't important but having talent and winning cures a lot.

[dude]

At the end of the day talent overcomes a lot of  potential clubhouse "issues." Not to say those non performance factors aren't important but having talent and winning cures a lot.

 

Steve, why are you confusing inputs and outputs?

 

[Talent] and [Non-Talent] factors are inputs that generate [Winning] (or 'Performance' which include not-winning also know as losing) which is the output. 

 

Nobody is going to argue the the Brewers have the most [Talent] but [somehow] they won the most games in MLB. If [Talent] = [Performance] then you have to explain the Brewers.

 

Nearly EVERYONE thought the Dodgers we ruining Baseball and we must have salary caps, blah, blah, blah because of those mean Dodgers and they won 93 games some 20-30 games less than everyone was thinking. Why do they win so many fewer games?

 

The Braves, Mets and Orioles were among the top team in pre-season Playoff % and they all missed the Playoffs.  Those are [Talent] assessments.

 

There's CLEARLY non-Talent factors involved in collective performance in MLB....and it's not just MLB, it's every thing everyone does (assuming you do something in life) everywhere.  You don't have to be "inside a MLB clubhouse" to understand how influences like Leadership and Human Nature can impact outcomes.  

 

...and...Talent is CLEARLY important, but the only teams that can't compete are the ones that intentionally don't try, because they are intentionally sabotaging their [Talent] and [non-Talent] inputs/factors. So everyone has Talent, there is no pooling of Talent that is over-whelming and I'll use the History of MLB as evidence.  Nobody has ever gone 162-0.  Not even close.  The worst teams beat the best teams, not necessarily a lot, but it happens.  To reiterate the NCAA Tourney analogy....everyone that makes March Madness is playing well as a Team.  Everyone has [non-Talent] swag....but you can absolutely pool Talent in College Basketball where the Talent is over-whelming....which is why the 1-16 games are like 132-2, THAT is what Talent disparity looks like..

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude, that response takes the cake, even for you. 

[dude]

I must have hit edit (not 'quote') on post #213 above....didn't mean to change that one in that way....if someone can restore the edit, that's fine with me....

 

If you want some most recent, relative perspective, ....

 

Some more perspective is watch what Boras is doing in the Skubal situation.  

 

I get the notion that people will say "hey, he's just doing his job, doing everything he can for his client"....that's fine, but that means you (the player) are ok with the low character, hypocritical approach for representation where you force the story to be about something other than the Team.

 

...was trying to quote part of it (re Boras) and add recent on Skubal....