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NBC / Hardball Talk: The intriguging O's lineup


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 08:13 PM

NBC / Hardball Talk:http://hardballtalk....orioles-lineup/

I disagree with the notion that if Roberts can not go, that Chavez will start over Reimold against RHP.

I think Pouliot's projections are fairly realistic across the board.

#2 Tucker Blair

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 08:32 PM

I also think his projections are realistic enough although I would probably notch Betemits HR total down and change a few things here and there (nothing overly dramatic).
I think our offense is FAR from the reason this team sucks so badly.
The most exciting battle in spring training besides our rotation could be the lead-off spot.

As of now, we have:

Roberts (obviously is healthy he gets it)
Hardy
Andino
Reimold
Antonelli
Chavez
Markakis (doubt he would ever lead-off)

Also I really don't like Hardy in the 2-spot in the lineup. I have seen a lot of people put them there, but if he is not leading off then I am dropping him to at least 5th or 6th.
And as I posted in the lead-off thread, I think a platoon of Reimold(.258/.353/.478 against RHP) and Andino (.306/.367/.354 against LHP) at the top of the lineup would work great,

#3 Luke Jackson

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 09:56 PM

Those projections seem overly optimistic, to me at least.
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#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:30 PM

Those projections seem overly optimistic, to me at least.


My first inclination above was that these projections were realistic enough.

Pouliot's projections:
Roberts: .269/.343/.389, 7 HR, 43 RBI in 453 AB
Hardy: .260/.315/.450, 25 HR, 75 RBI in 542 AB
Markakis: .301/.373/.461, 18 HR, 83 RBI in 612 AB
Jones: .287/.335/.473, 24 HR, 91 RBI in 571 AB
Wieters: .286/.360/.495, 25 HR, 80 RBI in 497 AB
Betemit: .269/.335/.456, 19 HR, 67 RBI in 447 AB
Reynolds: .240/.333/.490, 35 HR, 88 RBI in 526 AB
Davis: .247/.302/.434, 22 HR, 65 RBI in 511 AB
Reimold: .251/.333/.428, 18 HR, 54 RBI in 446 AB

I decided to take a closer look based on your comment.

As we've discussed previously, I expect the O's and Roberts to reach a buyout during ST. If he was able to come North, is 453 ab's, and a .732 OPS realistic? To me that seems reasonable. You'd be talking about 110 games or so for Roberts, and an OPS at just below his '06, and '10 levels.

A .765 OPS, 25 homers, and 542 ab's for Hardy? For his career, Hardy has a .755 OPS, and he is coming off a season with 527 ab's. In the past 3 years, Hardy has played in 129, 101, and 115 games. Does he avoid significant injury and again reach that level of ab's? If he does, I'm pretty sure reaches Pouliot's expectations.

I remain a strong Markakis fan, but I'm not sure he gets to that .834 OPS. For his career, Markakis has a .818 OPS, and after posting the .897 OPS in '08, he has posted .800, .806, and .757 marks the past three years. Even with league averages decreasing the past several years, I could see Markakis getting back to his career average, but I wouldn't project him to go above that.

Jones has been pretty consistent the last 3 years. His OBP has ranged from .319 to .335. His SLG has ranged from .442 to .466. Pouliot's numbers are reasonable, but similar to Markakis a bit above what I would 'expect.' Like Markakis, I would also not be shocked to see him exceed Pouliot's projection.

Wieters with a .855 OPS is nice to see. Wieters had a .778 OPS for '11, but a .840 OPS after the All-Star break. Clearly Pouliot believes Wieters is on the verge of a full offensive breakout. I don't think his progression is that aggressive.

Right now, Betemit figures to get the 447 ab's Pouliot is projecting. Betemit is averaging 7 homers per 193 ab's for his career. (1 per 27) 447 / 27 = 17. The .791 OPS projected is right in line with his career numbers .784.

Reynolds is projected to have a .823 OPS. He was at .806 for his '11, and .765 over the 2nd half. His career mark is .814. Pouliot projects him to pretty much directly hit his career OBP, and slightly exceed his SLG numbers.

Davis is projected to have a .736 OPS. For his career, he is at .749. 22 homers in 511 ab's seems realistic with his power. The minimal OBP seems realistic as well.

Reimold is projected to have a .761 OPS. The biggest thing is that he is projected to have 446 ab's. In '09, Reimold had 358 ab's. Last year he had 267. This year, it looks like he will have regular everyday ab's waiting for him in LF. If he gets those 446 ab's, I think he exceeds Pouliot's projection.

All-in-all, the projections as a group might be a bit optimistic. Individually they seem reasonable enough. Which ones are bothering you the most?

#5 NewMarketSean

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:07 PM

There's no way Roberts plays in 100 games and I doubt Hardy plays in enough to put up those stats either.

Davis probably won't get 500 AB's either.
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#6 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:36 PM

There's no way Roberts plays in 100 games and I doubt Hardy plays in enough to put up those stats either.

Davis probably won't get 500 AB's either.


I think it is certainly fair not to believe Roberts plays 100 games. Like I've said, I am expecting a buyout this Spring. However, if he was able to play, those numbers are essentially what I would expect from him.

Probably have to expect Hardy to miss some time, but if he plays that much, he should meet those numbers.

It will be interesting to see if Davis is able to stay healthy enough, and keep his obp high enough to get those 500 ab's.

#7 Can_of_corn

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 04:03 PM

I think that even if Roberts is healthy enough to come back, he is done. His defense was barely acceptable when he was last healthy and I think his age combined with his baseball inactivity will be too much to overcome.

I sincerely hope he retires and doesn't embarrass himself and hurt the team attempting a comeback.

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#8 FlavaDave10

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 04:06 PM

I think that even if Roberts is healthy enough to come back, he is done. His defense was barely acceptable when he was last healthy and I think his age combined with his baseball inactivity will be too much to overcome.

I sincerely hope he retires and doesn't embarrass himself and hurt the team attempting a comeback.


He's done after this year. No question. Orioles hall of famer for sure.

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#9 NewMarketSean

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 05:18 PM

Reports of him losing weight and muscle, sounding detached and maybe even depressed in interviews, yeah...it's a forgone conclusion that even if he is cleared to play he will be in no shape to perform to a level where he deserves to play. It's really sad but this is the reality we're faced with.

So in final, Brian Roberts is finished as a productive MLB player.

RE: Davis, even if he did put up those numbers it wouldn't justify him getting 500 AB's. We're at the point where we don't have any other 1B options, but a low-OBP .240 hitter shouldn't continue getting AB's.
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#10 Guest__*

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 07:15 PM

There's no way Roberts plays in 100 games and I doubt Hardy plays in enough to put up those stats either.

Davis probably won't get 500 AB's either.


Your right that Roberts wont see 100 games, I'm not sure if he will even see 100 ABs. I certainty hope Davis doesn't get shorted in his attempted to secure the First Base job. I'm not sure I agree with anyone who argues that he has been given a true "chance" at being a starting player. I understand that you have to earn that right (which is the same argument I use in the Nolan Reimold debate). My "potential" lineup would be as follows:

Andino 2B
Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Wieters C
Reynolds 3B
Davis 1B
Betemit DH
Reimold/Chavez LF (Andino and Chavez could also be flipped)

The leadoff spot is very difficult right now. The talk about Markakis leading off intrigues me, but I'm not sure that's what we intended when we gave him his extension. However, if he gets on base and sets the table, I am all for it!




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