5530 replies to this topic

[weird-O]

And zero playoff wins. And now no Adley who played a big role in that. To get there we had to have historically bad seasons and a lot of high draft picks. Is that where we want to go?

The biggest problem is we never complimented that talent with proven major league talent. If Elias continues to punt on the season and be reluctant to make big moves we're gonna be stuck in mediocrity. Right now our struggle is to be a .500 team again.

I just made this comment, but it's worth repeating. I think he's changing his approach from what you're describing. A younger Elias probably pencils Mayo in at 1B this season, and calls it a win. Going after Pete, when an in-house option was available, is actually a big change for Elias.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Nickle likes to say the team had nothing when Elias took over. And then point to the 101 team. That 101 team which featured Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, GrayRod and Kremer - all of whom were acquired during the Duquette era.

EDS - Elias Devotion Syndrome.

ROFL. What a bunch of shit. What type of players were these guys from 2019-21. How many even had made their debuts or were regulars. Obviously by 2021 starting to build a bit under Elias's development. Not in '19. Still you named like 3 solid guys and then reached hard for Kremer and GRod. Gtfo. OMG John Means coulda totally lead us to the promise land in 2019 if only the GM tried.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I just made this comment, but it's worth repeating. I think he's changing his approach from what you're describing. A younger Elias probably pencils Mayo in at 1B this season, and calls it a win. Going after Pete, when an in-house option was available, is actually a big change for Elias.

What was the big change that happened after 2023 and before 2024 btw. Anyone? Anyone?


And Im not saying Elias hasnt been cautious or risk adverse in FA. Particularly big contracr pitchers. IMO thats smart.

[Nigel Tufnel]

On the Baseball Savant outfielder jump leaderboard, Cowser is above average and 25th overall out of 92 qualifiers.  O'Neill, Tavares, and Beavers are all below average, with Beavers ranked at #91.

 

Statcast Outfielder Jump Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

[weird-O]

What was the big change that happened after 2023 and before 2024 btw. Anyone? Anyone?

Absolutely

 

But there wasn't a Burnes or an arm that looked like an emerging Burnes that was in-house. Mayo could eclipse Pete in time. To his credit, Elias didn't decide to wait. And that is a reason why I think '27 can be another exciting O's season. But he has to be willing to build a fully competitive team for that season.  

[Mackus]

And Im not saying Elias hasnt been cautious or risk adverse in FA. Particularly big contracr pitchers. IMO thats smart.

It's smart if you can find enough pitching through other means. That hasn't been the case so far. I'd rather swing and miss than not even try, when not trying means you're very unlikely to have enough pitching to be successful.

Like all things there is a sliding scale. And Elias is far too much on the conservative/risk-averse side.

I have very little confidence in him adding enough for next year's team to truly compete. Hope he doubles down on the bigger moves he has made rather than those remaining the exceptions. There is a ton of work to do.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

On the Baseball Savant outfielder jump leaderboard, Cowser is above average and 25th overall out of 92 qualifiers. O'Neill, Tavares, and Beavers are all below average, with Beavers ranked at #91.

Statcast Outfielder Jump Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

Adds up

[BSLMikeLowe]

I have every expectation Elias will do his usual half-measures in the offseason, then hope all goes according to the most optimistic of their models. No regression (or big rebound from players who have already regressed), no significant injuries (despite a clear pattern of injuries in the case of some key guys)....no room for all the things that regularly occur for every team.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Looked at Roto-Wire's injury formula that measures the teams most impacted for 2026. No shock, but the Orioles were #1. That definitely matters. But it is not a crutch for what has happened, and any argument to the contrary falls apart when you look at who is a very close 2nd....the Rays, the team with the best record in MLB. Then the argument further loses steam when you realize a big part of the O's score comes from Felix, who was never expected to make any contribution to the team this year (if ever again)

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Absolutely

But there wasn't a Burnes or an arm that looked like an emerging Burnes that was in-house. Mayo could eclipse Pete in time. To his credit, Elias didn't decide to wait. And that is a reason why I think '27 can be another exciting O's season. But he has to be willing to build a fully competitive team for that season.

And we all thought the team looked good on paper in 2026. We thought we were gonna be competitive. But thats where the lack of fundamentals has really shown and its absolutely a big mark against Elias. That and underperformance of some key individual players. That is not fully on Elias but some of it is on him too. Regardless of if its Elias or someone else, and regardless of how we look on paper 2027 is a prove it year for me. Show me you can be a winning team on the field.

[weird-O]

Anything less than a whole new OF, would be insufficient. And those new players should all be defensive upgrades. One would assume they will also be offensive upgrades as well. But just incase it needed to be said, there it is. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Looked at Roto-Wire's injury formula that measures the teams most impacted for 2026. No shock, but the Orioles were #1. That definitely matters. But it is not a crutch for what has happened, and any argument to the contrary falls apart when you look at who is a very close 2nd....the Rays, the team with the best record in MLB. Then the argument further loses steam when you realize a big part of the O's score comes from Felix, who was never expected to make any contribution to the team this year (if ever again)

Not saying youve ever said differently, but Ive never used injuries as any kinda excuse. The fundamentals suck. There is too much underperformance by key performers. NY has missed Judge for half or close to half their games at this point. Theyre still the 2nd best team in the league and hes the best hitter in the league. So acknowledge the injuries but dont use it as a crutch is right.

[weird-O]

And we all thought the team looked good on paper in 2025. We thought we were gonna be competitive. But thats where the lack of fundamentals has really shown and its absolutely a big mark against Elias. That and underperformance of some key individual players. That is not fully on Elias but some of it is on him too. Regardless of if its Elias or someone else, and regardless of how we look on paper 2027 is a prove it year for me. Show me you can be a winning team on the field.

I still remember thinking that rotation would be a problem. But I thought that line up would mash enough to compensate. The good thing about the '27 season, is that the rotation has 3 solid pieces in place. I'll stop there, because I'm sure a thread will pop up, where we'll discuss what we think the team needs for the upcoming season. 
In the meantime, they're only 2 games out  

[BSLMikeLowe]

Not saying youve ever said differently, but Ive never used injuries as any kinda excuse. The fundamentals suck. There is too much underperformance by key performers. NY has missed Judge for half or close to half their games at this point. Theyre still the 2nd best team in the league and hes the best hitter in the league. So acknowledge the injuries but dont use it as a crutch is right.

 

Wasn't really directed at anyone here, I point it out because it was maybe the first thing Elias pointed out when discussing why the season went off the rails. He also mentioned regression. And to his credit he took some ownership of the crappy defense, admitting he devalued it when building the team...but recognizing it and fixing it are two different matters. No idea what he can do to fix it, since it's mostly a team-wide issue rather than just a couple guys who are really weak.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah, with the guys here now, its hard to know how much you can improve their defensive chops. I do think the coaching staff has tried. Theyve made Cairo sound like a good infield coach. What difference Schildt may or may not be making with the minors is just hard for us to know. If anyone watches minor league games maybe they have an opinion

[BaltBird 24]

I think it's safe to say they've been targeting a lot of guys who profile as plus defenders in the minors over the past couple of years, especially in the OF.

Of course, we've heard that guys are plus defenders before and have turned into total disasters (Beavers).

[NewMarketSean]

The defensive stuff they're doing now is closing the barn door after the horse got out. They need to target good defensive players from the start. No amount of Dave Trembley infield practice before games is going to fix inherent flaws with this roster.

[weird-O]

I think it's safe to say they've been targeting a lot of guys who profile as plus defenders in the minors over the past couple of years, especially in the OF.

Of course, we've heard that guys are plus defenders before and have turned into total disasters (Beavers).

Man, he was graded a plus defender? Who is evaluating these guys? I know it probably seems like I'm always dumping on Beavers, but to the eye test, I can't even call him average. 

[weird-O]

The defensive stuff they're doing now is closing the barn door after the horse got out. They need to target good defensive players from the start. No amount of Dave Trembley infield practice before games is going to fix inherent flaws with this roster.

I guess the best you can say is, at least they're shifting gears now. It will take a few years for us to see the results in Baltimore, but here we are.

[Slidemaster]

The hero worship of Elias is really interesting to me. I think some just can't bring themselves to admit that he sold us a vision of the future that he couldn't deliver. Not everything about his time here was bad. He did well in every situation that required him to sell, for example. But, when you're a GM and required to sell in 6 of the 8 years you have the job, something is very, very wrong.