8 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

With Pitchers and Catchers reporting to camp less than a month from now ( February 18th ), let us take a look at some of the leading storylines we anticipate watching unfold this Spring.

1) Is Wada's place in the rotation secure?

If so, the intrigue that currently exists with the rotation rapidly decreases. Obviously injuries can change things, but if healthy - Guthrie, Britton, and Chen are rotation locks. In my eyes, Arrieta is a near lock as well, especially now that Arrieta has confirmed he expects to be 100% when ST begins. However, I guess there is enough of a question of how his elbow responds, to leave a slim % chance that he is not ready to go when the bell rings.

If you are counting Arrieta like me, that leaves one opening. It seems pretty clear that a stated opportunity to start was part of the incentive Wada had in signing here. I think it would be an upset if he did not begin the year in the rotation.

2) If Wada is in the rotation, what does that mean for the rest of the staff?

Once the O's get to the point they are regularly using a 5th starter, it is likely they will have a 7 man bullpen.
Johnson, and Gregg are two locks. Who are the other 5?

Camden Depot had a good look yesterday (http://camdendepot.b...s-and-cuts.html) at the options remaining for O's pitchers, and I think that provides some answers.

Pedro Strop has one option remaining, but it is hard for me to envision him heading back to AAA. If he is not a lock for the pen, he is pretty close. That is three.

I'm a fan of Tommy Hunter, and more importantly, Buck Showalter is as well. Hunter has 26 MLB wins. As we discussed in the Hunter thread (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=360), some seem him winding-up in the rotation. I don't see that, but his place on the roster is secure. That is four.

That leaves 3 spots, which figure to be filled out of the group of Berken, Bergesen, Patton, Eveland, Simon, O'Day, Rapada, and Phillips.

Having a LOOGY like Rapada who is not capable of pitching to RH batters at all makes little sense to me, and I think he should be eliminated as an option. I saw Berken at FanFest saying he felt much stronger in his shoulder. Based on that, I was thinking he would have a decent chance to come North. However, with two options remaining, his fate is to begin the year in AAA.

O'Day had two strong, durable years with Texas in '09, and '10. I get the sense he goes into ST seen as a favorite to grab a spot. Like Berken though, he has an option remaining. I'd prefer not to lose other pitchers who could help during the season, just to keep O'Day.

Bergesen, Patton, Eveland, and Simon are out of options. There is room for 3 of those 4. I would keep both Patton, and Eveland, partly because they are lefties. That is 6 of the 7. Who do you choose between Bergesen and Simon?

We’ve always believed Bergesen is a guy suited for the back of a ML rotation, or as a swing man out of the bullpen. Pitch F/X shows that during the ’11 season, Bergesen threw a 4 seam fastball over 50% of the time (average velocity 90.9). He threw his 2 seam fastball just 18.2% of the time (average velocity 90.3). Perhaps that disparity explains why his Groundball /Flyball ratio dropped to 0.71 in '11 vs. 0.93 for his career. His May 14th shutout in Tampa was masterful, and a reminder of Bergesen at his best. From June 1st on, he made just 3 ML starts.

Most of Simon's numbers are not particularly exciting, and I do think he also gets exposed as a starter. On the plus side of the ledger, in his 115.2 ip with the Birds last year, he averaged 94.6 mph with the fastball. He has legitimate stuff, and I do think is a better asset for the O's out of the pen.

I can probably make a case for either one, and am comfortable letting them battle it out in the Spring.

EDIT: MASN / Kubatko reported today (http://www.masnsport...ther-notes.html) that Bergesen has one option left. So, I now have Bergesen back to AAA, and Simon coming North with the Birds.

This leaves my 12 man staff as:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Arrieta, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Patton, Eveland, and Simon

Which means that...

3) Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen (and O'Day, and Berken) would be ticketed for AAA.

Again, assuming that A) Wada has been promised a rotation spot, B) The rotation favorites get through Spring healthy; Matusz is the one guy that can make things really difficult for the O's.

I think the plan is for him to start at AAA, and I'm sure the O's envision things working out that he quickly ascends back to Baltimore. If Matusz arrives into camp in fantastic shape, and looks great in ST; it is going to be difficult to send him back to Norfolk. At his best, he is a highly polished pitcher. If he really forces the issue, the O's will have consider having Wada in the pen in place of either Patton or Eveland.

4) What happens with Roberts, and 2nd?

All O's fans have talked about Brian Roberts (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=171) to death. Without again going through everything, it should be clear fairly early in ST if Roberts is progressing to the point where he expects to be able to play, or not. If he is healthy enough to come North, he will start. If he can't play, he is not going to just retire and walk away from the $20M he is owed over the next two seasons. I think the likely outcome is a buyout between the O's and Roberts before the season begins.

Based off of familiarity, I would imagine that Andino gets the first crack at beginning the year as the everyday 2nd baseman. Like several posters here, I would prefer Antonelli to be the 2nd baseman, freeing up Andino as a Super UTI player. Hardy has played 129, 101, and 115 games the past 3 seasons. Based on that, you would expect him to miss some time in '12. Andino is the best option existing as a backup to Hardy.

5) Markakis, will he be ready for Opening Day?

Markakis believes he will be ready (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=265), does anything change in the Spring?

6) The everyday lineup and bench?
6a) Who bats leadoff? http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=192
6b) Flaherty or Miller for the last bench spot?

If Roberts is bought out, we are currently looking at an everyday lineup and bench that looks like:

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Davis 1st
Reimold LF
Betemit DH
Andino 2nd

Teagarden, Antonelli, Chavez, and Flaherty or Miller

I'd prefer Markakis or Reimold to leadoff, but I'm not overly concerned about that. Flaherty or Miller is an interesting question.

7) Moves that could happen, which would greatly impact the roster?

I've been advocating the addition of Cespedes (http://baltimorespor...ic.php?f=3&t=62). If that happened, we could see him take over LF, Reimold to DH, Betemit to the bench, and the O's keeping just one of Chavez / Flaherty / Miller.

Some others are advocating the addition of Edwin Jackson (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=147). If the O's had Jackson, Wada pretty much has to go to the pen, replacing either Patton or Eveland, and Matusz definitively starts at AAA.

At this point, it seems fairly unlikely, but if Jones was traded (http://baltimorespor...ic.php?f=3&t=42), his leaving and the return would have multiple ramifications.

Are there other storylines you will be looking for?

[Greg Pappas]

We agree on most points, as usual, but IMHO, the rotation will be a bit more "up for grabs" than you believe it will be. I view Wada as someone in the mix for the 4th/5th starter, like a few others, but far from being close to a certainty.

Guthrie may be dealt, but seems a lock to start on OD.

Chen is a near-lock, outside of a terrible spring.

Britton struggled in his 1st campaign, which is typical of most young hurlers, but his stuff and makeup have me believing -as you- that he makes the rotation. However, a bad spring finds him in AAA.

Arrieta has a good shot at the rotation, as long as he looks strong and doesn't have an awful spring.

Matusz may finally show everyone this season what he's capable of being. If he's good and strong this spring, he's in.

Wada needs to pitch pretty well, and even if he does I can't see him taking a rotation spot from a revived Matusz. Wada will be on the cusp all spring, and has a shot pending the performances and health of others.

Hunter. Tommy Hunter is a bit of a wildcard. Can he duplicate his efforts as a starter from two years ago, or will he morph into a quality spot starter and long man? Time will tell.

Tillman is the nearly forgotten starter prospect, and his efforts have pushed him to the brink of being an afterthought... however he, like Hunter could be a surprise. He has the talent. It's time to show it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]We agree on most points, as usual, but IMHO, the rotation will be a bit more "up for grabs" than you believe it will be. I view Wada as someone in the mix for the 4th/5th starter, like a few others, but far from being close to a certainty.
[/quote]
If his spot is not 'promised', ST will be interesting.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Guthrie may be dealt, but seems a lock to start on OD.
[/quote]

I can see Guthrie being traded around the non-waiver deadline, hard to imagine it happening in ST, or anytime prior to mid-July.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Chen is a near-lock, outside of a terrible spring.
[/quote]

Agreed. His spot as one of the top 4 in the rotation is a done deal.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Britton struggled in his 1st campaign, which is typical of most young hurlers, but his stuff and makeup have me believing -as you- that he makes the rotation. However, a bad spring finds him in AAA.
[/quote]

Britton faced some adversity as a rookie, but I think it is unfair to characterize his rookie year as a struggle as a whole. The most impressive aspect of his year to me, was that he responded to the struggles he had in July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24.

It would be pretty shocking to me if even with a bad spring, he wound up back at AAA.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Arrieta has a good shot at the rotation, as long as he looks strong and doesn't have an awful spring.
[/quote]

Similar to Britton, it would be pretty shocking to me if Arrieta did not come North with the Birds. If at the end of ST there are no questions about his health, his spot should be secure, even if his results in limiting ST innings were below what you would hope for.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Matusz may finally show everyone this season what he's capable of being. If he's good and strong this spring, he's in. Wada needs to pitch pretty well, and even if he does I can't see him taking a rotation spot from a revived Matusz. Wada will be on the cusp all spring, and has a shot pending the performances and health of others.
[/quote]

I fully expect Matusz to rebound this year. If he is not as good as he was to end '10, he will be better than anything we saw out of him in '11. Between those extremes is a pitcher who can help. I agree Matusz can force the issue if he looks great, but it is still a numbers, which goes back to Wada.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Tommy Hunter is a bit of a wildcard. Can he duplicate his efforts as a starter from two years ago, or will he morph into a quality spot starter and long man? Time will tell.
[/quote]

I don't see a scenario (minus multiple injuries to the arms in-front of him) where Hunter has a chance to start to begin the year.

[quote name="Greg Pappas"]
Tillman is the nearly forgotten starter prospect, and his efforts have pushed him to the brink of being an afterthought... however he, like Hunter could be a surprise. He has the talent. It's time to show it.
[/quote]

I remain a Chris Tillman fan. Earlier this Winter I was hoping he would have a chance to make the O's bullpen out of ST. That is just not going to happen. There are too many arms (with option issues) in-front of him. I liked what we saw from him after working with Griffin last Summer. I think his talent will show again, and I'm sure he will be back in Baltimore at some point this year. We will see if he can grab that opportunity, when it arises.

[Mackus]

The last two years we've had teams that we thought that maybe, just maybe, could be about .500 if things broke well and the young pitchers with promise developed and pitched well. Then after that we'd sign a couple big time players and really make moves to contend.

I don't see the reason for any realistic hope this year. And I certainly don't think there is any way we compete in two years. We don't have any new young pitchers, we've got the same guys that were awful last year (only Britton and Arrieta even have decent silver linings from their seasons last year) plus a couple of Chinamen (not the preferred nomenclature).

Aside from the generic "hope springs eternal" type of general Spring Training optimism and giddiness that baseball is back, I think the actual reasons for being optimistic about this year's Orioles team is lower than any point in the last few seasons. The "Luis Hernandez is our starting SS and we just traded away Tejada and Bedard" season probably had less optimism for that current season, but that was at least the start of a rebuilding phase. Right now we're just hoping that the starting pitching isn't so bad that it forces another rebuild.

I haven't been this jaded about the team's chances in a long time, and its not like we were ever that overly impressed with how things were going. The only hope is that the same young pitchers just crapped the bed last year, instead of actually being terrible, and that they can learn from their experiences and be the core of our rotation that we need them to be.

[SportsGuy]

The last two years we've had teams that we thought that maybe, just maybe, could be about .500 if things broke well and the young pitchers with promise developed and pitched well. Then after that we'd sign a couple big time players and really make moves to contend.

I don't see the reason for any realistic hope this year. And I certainly don't think there is any way we compete in two years. We don't have any new young pitchers, we've got the same guys that were awful last year (only Britton and Arrieta even have decent silver linings from their seasons last year) plus a couple of Chinamen (not the preferred nomenclature).

Aside from the generic "hope springs eternal" type of general Spring Training optimism and giddiness that baseball is back, I think the actual reasons for being optimistic about this year's Orioles team is lower than any point in the last few seasons. The "Luis Hernandez is our starting SS and we just traded away Tejada and Bedard" season probably had less optimism for that current season, but that was at least the start of a rebuilding phase. Right now we're just hoping that the starting pitching isn't so bad that it forces another rebuild.

I haven't been this jaded about the team's chances in a long time, and its not like we were ever that overly impressed with how things were going. The only hope is that the same young pitchers just crapped the bed last year, instead of actually being terrible, and that they can learn from their experiences and be the core of our rotation that we need them to be.

There is some hope that we have some young players who could get better but generally speaking, there is very little short and long term hope for this team.

We all like what DD has done off the field...But you can improve everything you want there but if you don't have talent, it doesn't matter...the Orioles lack in talent in a major way and this offseason, they just fell further behind the rest of the AL.

[jsh]

I'm not going to sit here and say this team is going to be .500 or compete for a playoff spot. I will say that I think this team can be better than last year.

Last year everyone was excited about Vlad and Lee but both of them let us down. I'm unsure of what to expect from Davis but I don't think he'll be far from Lee's .706 OPS. If Buck uses Betemit properly and platoons the DH position it's hard to imagine we can't equal Vlad's .733 OPS from the DH position. We also won't be subjected to Vlad consistently being penciled in at the #4 spot. I'll also add that LF was manned by an injured Luke Scott for 64 games last year and he put up a .704 OPS. I think Reimold can easily match that production and he should improve on it. I'd like to think at worst, our offense matches last year's offense and we weren't that bad on offense last year.

Where our season hinges, just as it has for basically the past 14 years, is the pitching staff. I like that Duquette has brought in a bunch of arms to compete for roster spots. We should not have situations like last year where Chris Jakubauskas, Brad Bergesen, JoJo Reyes, Mitch Atkins and Rick VandenHurk are starting a combined 28 games.

I think this team improves on last year's record.

[NCRaven]

Despite my best efforts, this is the time of year that the team sucks me in and makes me hope for better. If the young pitching steps up, this team could be better than many think. But, that's been true for three years and the young pitchers have yet to do it in more than spurts. Having several under-30 pitchers including Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Chen, Hunter, and Tillman do give me hope. If we added an erratic, but very talented pitcher like Jackson, even more so. I still believe the lineup is more than adequate if the pitching would ever come through.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Despite my best efforts, this is the time of year that the team sucks me in and makes me hope for better. If the young pitching steps up, this team could be better than many think. But, that's been true for three years and the young pitchers have yet to do it in more than spurts. Having several under-30 pitchers including Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Chen, Hunter, and Tillman do give me hope. If we added an erratic, but very talented pitcher like Jackson, even more so. I still believe the lineup is more than adequate if the pitching would ever come through.

I share a lot of these thoughts, though I don't feel 'sucked' in. I'm anticipating 75 wins, but I do believe in the arms here, and think the potential exists for the O's to surprise many.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I can see Guthrie being traded around the non-waiver deadline, hard to imagine it happening in ST, or anytime prior to mid-July.

Good call here!