190 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The O’s were a .500 team over their last 60 games in 2024.

This April has been a brutal watch, which may ultimately cost Hyde his job.
I believe Elias is capable of delivering the O’s their 4th World Championship, but his off-season is the primary reason for the O’s rough start to ’25.
There is still time for the O’s to turn this ship around, but it’s not going to be easy.
At 10-17, they likely need to go something like 78-57 the rest of the way to be in a good position to grab one of the Wild Cards.
Not impossible, but that’s a .578 pace for the last 135 games.
That certainly feels daunting based on what we’ve seen so far.

Taking 2 of 3 from New York would be a start.

 

 

 

What would have to happen in your opinion for the O's go on that type of run?

What % chance do you give for the O's to finish with 88 wins?

 

https://baltimorespo...ft-after-today/

[Slidemaster]

The DeLorean would have to get up to 88 MPH so Elias could go back in time and fix this mess for them to win 88 games.

Nothing is impossible, but I give them less than a 3% chance of getting there.

[Mackus]

They'd need to start hitting like a top-3 offense and start getting SP like a middle of the pack rotation.

The SP is the bigger ask, IMO.

I'd say 1-in-20 chance of getting to upper 80s. I think they could play at that pace over the second half, but there isn't going to be a quick turnaround here so the next 4 to 8 weeks are still gonna be pretty brutal.

[makoman]

They'd need to start hitting like a top-3 offense and start getting SP like a middle of the pack rotation.

The SP is the bigger ask, IMO.

I still hope the sleepwalking position players might wake up with new leadership.

I guess it’s possible Eflin comes back ok, Kremer goes back to normal, Sugano stays decent, Gibson replaces Morton and is league averagish, and either Povich keeps it up or Grayson comes back. Big ask though, a lot had to go in our favor.

[Mike B]

I think the rotation is just bad, and I think it just saps the energy from the team.

I think less than 20% chance they can get to the upper 80's.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Here are a few reasons why I still think the O's can turn things around: 

 

1) The O’s are 18th in runs scored, and 15th in slugging % coming in to today. The positional talent is strong. Cedric Mullins has had a strong start. Ryan O’Hearn too. Ramon Urias has produced in the opportunities he has received. Outside of them, most everyone else is underachieving. Mullins will come back to Earth, but nearly everyone else should be expected to do more. I think this should be an offense which finishes Top 5 in runs.

 

2) At this point I need to see Grayson Rodriguez active and healthy (and then stay active and healthy for a prolonged stretch) before buying in there. But when he was sent for a 2nd opinion on his shoulder, I was expecting the next story to be that he was done for the year. The fact that the O’s are currently believing he’s on track to begin a throwing program in a few weeks beats the alternative. If he can join the O’s by mid-June, and stay available; that’s going to provide a lift.

 

2a) Zach Eflin is getting closer to returning. Getting Rodriguez back at this point feels more like hope vs. something you expect.  Eflin is returning.

 

3) Between Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, and Brandon Young; I feel like the O’s should be able to find reliable starts from two of them. If you are getting competitive outings with regularity from two of them – with Eflin – the rotation can stabilize. In this sense, stabilize doesn’t mean ‘good’, it means going from complete dumpster fire to viable.

 

4) I don’t like any plan that relies on Kyle Bradish returning to the rotation, and immediately picking up where he left off; but the updates we’ve seen do seem promising. He was Cy Young caliber in ’23. I’m not expecting to see that version of Bradish if he becomes available this year. But if he’s starting games in August, he doesn’t have to be at that previous level to help.

 

5) If the O’s are within striking distance of a Wild Card at the deadline, I’d expect that Elias will find a Eflin level starter to trade for. Eflin, trade acquisition, hopefully Rodriguez as the top 3 starters, with Gibson / Kremer / Sugano / Povich / Young holding up spots 4-5, with Bradish possibly also returning would give the O’s a chance to finish strong.

 

6) Colton Cowser should be back to begin June. That will help the OF defense, and gives the lineup a boost.

 

7) Felix Bautista is looking more like his ’23 self each time out.  Yennier Cano has been strong.  Andrew Kittredge is getting closer to returning, and he’ll help the pen.

[Mackus]

Go in smaller increments...what do you think the chances of playing .500 over the next 4 weeks are?

I'd say about 40%.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Go in smaller increments...what do you think the cna he's of playing .500 over the next 4 weeks are?

I'd say about 40%.

 

They've got to start winning series, that's where it starts.

And it's hard to win series, or put together a .500 month, or a .580 month when you aren't getting starting pitching which gives you a chance.

 

The next month? 

Swap Gibson for Morton.
Hope to get Eflin back mid-May.

Need Kremer, Sugano, Povich, Young to not immediately take you out of games.... and mainly, you need the offense to wake up.

Too many guys hitting below expectations.
If they all wake up in May (while Mullins, and ROH come back to Earth), the offense has the capability of a .500+ month if the SP is somewhere near below-average to average and just not outright horrible.

[You Play to Win the Game]

This is terrible, but I don't want to start playing better until we move on from Hyde. Feel ick saying it, but that's where I am.

[BobPhelan]

This is terrible, but I don't want to start playing better until we move on from Hyde. Feel ick saying it, but that's where I am.

Part of me feels the same way. Elias should just grow some balls and do it now, it’s inevitable anyway.

[BaltBird 24]

Winning series seems like a monumental task considering we're a month in and they'd managed a whopping 1 series win and a 4 game split.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I still think this team has it in them to sneak in, but it's becoming increasingly less likely almost every day. Give Britton the reigns, swap Gibson for Morton (Gibson may end up being not much better, but we'll see), Efflin back - the stuff Stoner is saying - I do think the core is good enough to get going. The thing I keep telling myself with the core is that the hitting coaches are new. We don't know what is going on behind the scenes there by way of adjustments, etc. But it's the one thing that gives me a little hope for the bats. 

[weird-O]

I don't feel qualified to answer this question. I thought they'd win 90 games this season and murder the ball. 

[BaltBird 24]

Fresh homestand against a division rival after a disastrous road trip. What better time to make a move?

Everything bad from here on out is on Elias.

[Mackus]

Fresh homestand against a division rival after a disastrous road trip. What better time to make a move?

Everything bad from here on out is on Elias.

I think it's been on him for two weeks now.

[BSLChrisStoner]

3 games vs. NY to end April. 

 

May Schedule: 

KC home 3 games
@ Minnesota 3 games
@ LAA 3 games
Minnesota 3 games
DC 3 games
@ Milwaukee 3 games
@ Boston 4 games
St. Louis 3 games
Chicago WS 2 games

 

So at the end of May (barring any rainouts) they'll have played a total of 57 games (35% of their season). 
At 10-17, they'd have to go 19-11 over the next 30 games to be 29-28 at the end of May. 

Then they'd have 105 games left.... to finish with 88 wins, they'd have to go 59-46. 

 

And of course that's having them play 8 games over .500 from here until the end of May which doesn't feel super realistic at the moment.
If we generously say they go 15-15 over these 30 games, they are 25-32 when May ends. 
At that point, they'd need to 63-42 the rest of the way to finish with 88. (.600 ball.)

[BaltBird 24]

I think it's been on him for two weeks now.

Feel like they were kinda treading water until the Cincinnati beat down. They were still within a couple game winning streak from being back to .500 or over.

Feel like the bottom has fallen out since.

Of course, the lackluster play has been around from the start of the season and further.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think this season is sunk. Less than 20% they can make the playoffs. BUT its not zero but every day that goes on without any changes is not only damaging the season but the future as well.

 

1. Fire Hyde.

2. Get Gibson in and dump Morton.

3. See if they can hang on and get Eflin back.

4. Get Mayo up and put him in the lineup.

 

I would rather have the rest of the season with new leadership and give the core all the playing time, including Mayo. Get enough of a sample size the rest of this year to see what we really have going forward then adjust this winter. IF the offense flounders the rest of this year then we know the core isn't what we thought and they can react accordingly. But right now there are too many excuses built into the system to just keep stringing things along. Nothing changes and may things improve on their own or maybe they don't (likely IMO). But its time to make a change for change's sake.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

3 games vs. NY to end April. 

 

May Schedule: 

KC home 3 games
@ Minnesota 3 games
@ LAA 3 games
Minnesota 3 games
DC 3 games
@ Milwaukee 3 games
@ Boston 4 games
St. Louis 3 games
Chicago WS 2 games

 

So at the end of May (barring any rainouts) they'll have played a total of 57 games (35% of their season). 
At 10-17, they'd have to go 19-11 over the next 30 games to be 29-28 at the end of May. 

Then they'd have 105 games left.... to finish with 88 wins, they'd have to go 59-46. 

 

And of course that's having them play 8 games over .500 from here until the end of May which doesn't feel realistic.
If we generously say they go 15-15 over these 30 games, they are 25-32 when May ends. 
At that point, they'd need to 63-42 the rest of the way to finish with 88. (.600 ball.)

I don't think .500 for the month of May would be good enough to give them a shot. They need to pick up a couple of games IMO cause I see no way in hades that they could play .600 ball June through September.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Again, we all know the pitching sucks. Offensively we are middle of the pack overall. Defensively we are bad. Collectively we have 2.2 fWAR from our position players. That is 23rd in baseball.