21 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again

https://blogs.fangra...-average-again/

[ivanbalt]

I'll always support batting average.  Hoping for home runs hasn't worked well for the Orioles in the playoffs over the years.

[jamesdean]

I'll always support batting average.  Hoping for home runs hasn't worked well for the Orioles in the playoffs over the years.

They just need to get on base more often. Hitting for higher averages is part of that but they also need to be more disciplined at the plate and draw more walks.  They hit way too many solo homeruns and their situational hitting is poor. 

[Slidemaster]

I will never buy that a strikeout is just an out. It's an out where literally nothing good can happen unless the batter's eye is so bad that the strikeout occurs on a ball the catcher can't catch.

This is especially true against the best pitchers in the game that you often see in the playoffs.

Putting the bat on the ball will never not be important.

[jamesdean]

I will never buy that a strikeout is just an out. It's an out where literally nothing good can happen unless the batter's eye is so bad that the strikeout occurs on a ball the catcher can't catch.

This is especially true against the best pitchers in the game that you often see in the playoffs.

Putting the bat on the ball will never not be important.

Everyone on here knows how I feel about it but I do agree with you.  I will say that with the stuff and velocity a lot of these pitchers are throwing today, it has to be challenging to discern whether a pitch is slightly off the plate or on the corner.  I'll give them that much and I do sympathize with the hitters.  But when you're swinging at pitches up near your head or in the dirt, that's just lousy discipline as a hitter.  It's way too pervasive in the sport today and tolerated on a mass level.  Definitely hard to watch. 

[Slidemaster]

Everyone on here knows how I feel about it but I do agree with you. I will say that with the stuff and velocity a lot of these pitchers are throwing today, it has to be challenging to discern whether a pitch is slightly off the plate or on the corner. I'll give them that much and I do sympathize with the hitters. But when you're swinging at pitches up near your head or in the dirt, that's just lousy discipline as a hitter. It's way too pervasive in the sport today and tolerated on a mass level. Definitely hard to watch.

Completely agree. There will always be a place in the sport for guys who swing from their heels and have three true outcomes, but that can't be the entire lineup. There is enormous value in players who can battle and put the bat on the ball.

[Ravens2006]

AVG, OBP, and SLG have told the full story for decades.  Some are good in 1, 2, or 3 categories.  The best bats are good in all 3.  The worst bats are bad in all 3.  It's rocket science... 

 

Taking some juice out of the ball (manufacturing to a different COR value) would go a long way to keeping more balls in the ballpark.  Keeping more balls in the ballpark MIGHT eventually lead to pitchers having the ability to not feel the need to throw 101 to miss a bat.  Changing speeds in the 75 to 95 range can be very effective, especially when the ball is less likely to fly an extra 20 or 30 feet.  Small ball, speed, defense, etc. would all probably become a bigger part of the game at that point.  A larger strike zone could also lead to shorter swings.  There are a variety of reactions possible to most any action MLB could take.  The exaggerated overshift in the field became a "problem" because a generation of guys was brought up on the "pull, lift, elevate" gospel.  When you don't get the lift and elevate part exactly right, you're hitting in to a crowded defense.  Once in a blue moon would a guy swallow his pride and drop a bunt, or shorten up and punch opposite field to a defense with like 2 guys covering everything... but eventually MLB just tried to outlaw the shift.

 

I dunno.  The HR or bust nature of the major league game now is just boring to me.  The point he sort of makes with a grin that batting average means more balls in play, more people running around with purpose, etc. is really the best argument for it all to me.  But it won't matter... MLB won't change because they are content with the "long ball" and flamethrower storylines.  A pitcher throwing 103 for a year or two then blowing out his arm is cool for that time... then when his career is over, you just trot out the next in line throwing 103.  TV doesn't care about the name of the guy throwing 103.  So all of this is a waste of typing...

[bmore_ken]

Personally I never stopped. I'm old , so I tend to judge hitters by the old stats, i.e avg.  hrs, rbi, etc. As opposed to the 21st century stats. Most to be honest that I haven't even bothered learning how they're computed. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Batting average is meaningless, but OBP is hugely important.  So if you're hitting .220 but have a .380 OBP, that's good.  If you completely change your approach to try for home runs because you don't care about BA, and you gain 10 HR but end up striking out 30% of the time while also seeing a much lower BA and a slightly lower OBP, then that's bad.  We shouldn't conflate the two.

[Mackus]

Batting average is a huge driver of OBP, though, so can't really say its meaningless.  A hit is also better than a walk, so I don't think we should completely eschew average for OBP.  If you're only gonna look at one, sure, look at OBP, but think viewing both tells us more than one alone.  I still like slash lines that include AVG for that reason.

 

Just need to know that it can be misleading.   Like look at Luis Arraez, that guy has the best hit-tool on the planet right now, but he's merely just pretty good overall offensively because he's got little pop and rarely walks.  He's a very hollow batting average, and if he wasn't literally the best guy in the world at getting a single, he wouldn't be an asset at all because of the lack of supporting skills.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Batting average is a huge driver of OBP, though, so can't really say its meaningless.  A hit is also better than a walk, so I don't think we should completely eschew average for OBP.  If you're only gonna look at one, sure, look at OBP, but think viewing both tells us more than one alone.  I still like slash lines that include AVG for that reason.

 

Just need to know that it can be misleading.   Like look at Luis Arraez, that guy has the best hit-tool on the planet right now, but he's merely just pretty good overall offensively because he's got little pop and rarely walks.  He's a very hollow batting average, and if he wasn't literally the best guy in the world at getting a single, he wouldn't be an asset at all because of the lack of supporting skills.

 

I feel like we're just a step or two away from inventing OPS!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I feel like we're just a step or two away from inventing OPS!

ROFL


I will say that one thing Ive never pushed back on, and I doubt many at all would push back on, is its more aesthetically pleasing to see balls in play. Thats when you get all the moving parts.

[hallas]

I think the thing that resonated most with me here is that people that hit for high batting average are fun to watch, and so batting average is a proxy for entertainment value.  Hits are a lot more fun to watch than walks.

 

I do think it's unfortunate that maximizing your chances of winning does not mean maximizing the fun factor.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Even though I said it like 3 posts ago, it's sloppy to say that batting average is meaningless.  It's really that batting average doesn't tell the whole story, and that OBP and OPS are better measures.  But like Mackus said, BA goes directly into OBP, and also double your BA goes directly into OPS.  The key is that walks and extra base hits are important, not that batting average is meaningless.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think the thing that resonated most with me here is that people that hit for high batting average are fun to watch, and so batting average is a proxy for entertainment value. Hits are a lot more fun to watch than walks.

I do think it's unfortunate that maximizing your chances of winning does not mean maximizing the fun factor.

Exactly. Its a fine line because I dont want slow pitch softball either.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I will say that one thing Ive never pushed back on, and I doubt many at all would push back on, is its more aesthetically pleasing to see balls in play. Thats when you get all the moving parts.

 

 

I think the thing that resonated most with me here is that people that hit for high batting average are fun to watch, and so batting average is a proxy for entertainment value.  Hits are a lot more fun to watch than walks.

 

I do think it's unfortunate that maximizing your chances of winning does not mean maximizing the fun factor.

 

Yeah, we saw this with the 2016 Orioles, and even the 2024 team to some extent.  The 2016 offense was especially brutal to watch.

[weird-O]

Everyone on here knows how I feel about it but I do agree with you.  I will say that with the stuff and velocity a lot of these pitchers are throwing today, it has to be challenging to discern whether a pitch is slightly off the plate or on the corner.  I'll give them that much and I do sympathize with the hitters.  But when you're swinging at pitches up near your head or in the dirt, that's just lousy discipline as a hitter.  It's way too pervasive in the sport today and tolerated on a mass level.  Definitely hard to watch. 

Don't forget swinging and missing on a HBP

[jamesdean]

Don't forget swinging and missing on a HBP

That one will go down in infamy.  That's like the poster board for zero plate discipline.  

[jamesdean]

Extra base hits were especially down in baseball during the first half of last season and outside of Judge and a few others, homeruns were declining too.  Batting averages were tanking to 1968 levels and that's saying something.  There are so many things that go into why hitters are so challenged in today's game.  A lot of it is self-inflicted and an overall poor approach to making contact but you do have to appreciate what they're going through with the pitching that's out there.  You have guys who can throw anywhere from 5-8 different pitches with better than average command.  Not to mention the velocity that they're throwing those pitches with.  They took the shift away and that's a good thing but what are they going to do about outfielders today that position themselves through analytics to the point where hitting a ball between them is extremely difficult, thus cutting down on doubles and triples.  It doesn't help that these fools stand at home plate for several seconds and admire everything they hit in the air but the lack of offense across the landscape is pitcher driven.  I'm not sure what they can do to alter that.  You can't force a pitcher to throw the ball with less velocity, although it certainly would be advantageous to them to avoid tearing their arms up.  At some point, the philosophy of hitting today's pitchers is going to have to change and it will take more than Juan Soto and Aaron Judge to do that.  They're such outliers that other hitters probably look at them like they're some kind of savants. 

[hallas]

Don't forget swinging and missing on a HBP

 

That would have been hilarious and incredibly fun if it wasn't the flipping Oriolies that did it in a playoff game.