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MASN: Challenging readers with two more Orioles questions


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 January 2025 - 08:10 PM

MASN: Challenging readers with two more Orioles questions

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#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 11:35 AM

We've been discussing the need to move some position players for two years now. And one of the key points has always been that they have time to figure it out. Well I call BS on that anymore. The need to do something now. Sending Mayo back down to the minors is dumb. I don't care if he struggled a bit last summer. He has nothing left to gain with anymore time at Norfolk.

 

They don't have any real need for Mateo, Urias, and Rivera. Nothing wrong with these guys but come on Elias. Stop hording pieces. He's almost like the opposite of guys who call for a trade just to do something. He's hording well beyond any potential value to be gained. Use those pieces for crying out loud. Time to fish or cut bait.



#3 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 11:47 AM

How good is this bullpen?

 

It may not be finished, but the current group looks impressive.

 

I think it's a little funny how we need to do something in the bullpen and the delta between Webb and Kittredge goes from that to "impressive".

 

The issue for this bullpen will be the lack of options/flexibility that we have.  Really need the starters to pitch a little deeper to protect usage.  They actually did that a fair amount last year, Orioles were (maybe surprisingly) 24th in BP IP.  

 

The only other issue I have is we still have zero contributions to the bullpen from the draft and development side. Maybe we'll finally start to get some contribution this year or next after these 1-year guys go away.  Orioles have done a great job on the waiver wire in the bullpen over the years, but at what point can we get out of all the other stuff and just develop a group of varied approaches with options that can get outs with 2 quality pitches.



#4 Mackus

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 11:54 AM

The only other issue I have is we still have zero contributions to the bullpen from the draft and development side. Maybe we'll finally start to get some contribution this year or next after these 1-year guys go away.  

 

Seems clear that they think there is too much volatility in amateur pitching to be worth committing a big percentage of their draft or international resources.  They have acquired a lot of minor league pitching in various trades over the years, so at some point they think the pitchers become reliably projectable, but that point is not at the amateur level.

 

Very fair to question and criticize that approach.  I don't know what other teams are doing, but I would guess the Orioles approach is pretty unique.



#5 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 12:46 PM

More than just Mountcastle needs to be traded.  None of these guys are stupid.  They can all count.  The core of guys that contributed to a 101 win season are all being told they aren't part of the future.  Their friends are being preplaced by 'other' guys. All of them will be professional.  It's not about being 'bad' in the clubhouse.  The roster construction and obvious future reduce their impact.

 

I don't know why Roch can't count.  You have to waive Rivera to get Kjerstad.  That's fine, but you have 13 spots.  Guys with contracts and no options have spots until they are waived/released.

 

Roch here, Jake in other both projecting the wall to impact Mountcastle's stats.....but then in the article, he's basically the short side of a platoon...they don't even talk about O'Hearn in the mix....but kind of allude to Mounty and O'Hearn at 1B, ONeill getting the majority of time in RF, then you have what....Sanchez, Rutschman, Kjerstad for DH/C?  How does Mayo get any PT? 

 

If you want to build a roster of part time players that leverage those opportunities like the Rays, great, but if you build a roster of guys that want to be full-time players and tell them their part-time play is a "ton of ABs" then you are creating your own problems. 

 

....but these guys (Mullins, Mountcastle, OHearn, Urias) should have been traded months ago.  They've been sitting around their homes all winter with the uncertainty of what their futures look like.  



#6 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 12:48 PM

Today aint the day for dude BS. You need to move on for the time being.
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#7 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 01:03 PM

Seems clear that they think there is too much volatility in amateur pitching to be worth committing a big percentage of their draft or international resources.  They have acquired a lot of minor league pitching in various trades over the years, so at some point they think the pitchers become reliably projectable, but that point is not at the amateur level.

 

Very fair to question and criticize that approach.  I don't know what other teams are doing, but I would guess the Orioles approach is pretty unique.

 

I think the Guardians and Brewers are pretty widely accepted as some of the most consistently good small-market teams in recent years so just for a quick overview, here's their first round picks in the Elias era

 

Screen-Shot-2025-01-19-at-1-00-42-PM.png

 

Guardians definitely more pitching-heavy but neither totally skipped it 



#8 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 01:43 PM

Urias wants a bigger role than he'll have here.  Right now he's a depth piece waiting for an injury.  If Hyde wants to get him PT, it's forced.  Westburg wants to play 162.  Everyone wants to play more than they are on this roster so some guys know their PT goes through injury.  

 

ANYONE can do the job Urias is being assigned on this roster.  Mackus misrepresented my "Schoop" position in the other thread.  It's not that I think Jon Schoop has some unique talent for the bench, it's that at this point in his career, IF HE WANTED IT (not arguing for him now, apparently he played in the MEX IND last year) that he would embrace the patience and preparation associated with having that bench role.  You need "Chris Gomez's" in that role.  

 

Guys like Gordon, Amaya, Rivera, any of them can fill that role.  We talk about Mateo, there's an opportunity for a guy to say "I want this role" because he's in the last year of his Team control.  He can be a FA next year and seek whatever he wants ...but he could also say "I want to be here, on this team, in this role and I'll sign a contract to do that." instead, we have Mateo as the only guy they couldn't figure out a contract with.  Awesome.

 

We just saw the Dodgers trade Gavin Lux to the Reds for their CompA pick (~#37) AND Mike Sirota/OF.  Sirota was the 2024 draftee I talked about who had a top-of-the-draft projection in DEC 2023 but well down the boards based on the 2024 season.  The Dodgers added another draft pick AND a now their 21st prospect for Lux.

 

Urias is a couple years older, but has performed better than and is a much, much better defender than Gavin Lux, both have 2 years of control, similar costs.  There's a number of teams that need a starting 3B.

 

The Brewers are sliding Ortiz over to SS with Adames FA so that's easy, affordable for the Crew and they have a CompA this year (#32).  They still have #31 for Adames too).  Lux deal suggests I should get another player in their top 30....I'll just take the CompA.

 

I hate what the Nationals are doing this offseason (actually I hate what a lot of teams are doing this offseason, so that's not unique), but they should have a more competitive team (again, don't like what they're doing but...) but have stuggled to find a decent bridge to their 3B prospects (ie Brady House).

 

Mariners need a 3B (and a 2B), and don't have any money (apparently).  Mariners also have a CompA this year (#34).  Both the Brewers and Mariners have had Urias brother (Luis) on their teams the last 2 years, not idea if that has any resulting perspective good or bad.

 

Here's the 2024 3B OPS list. Urias is probably a .725 OPS bat with a GG.  That starts him at 14.  Start at the bottom and what's the plan/context for each team that thinks their competitive in 2025.



#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 02:03 PM

Ban

#10 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 02:07 PM

Ban

Why? He has some crazy takes but in this case, he's not all wrong. The O's are setting themselves up for an unhappy clubhouse. Sure winning cures a lot but about a bunch of guys are going to get a lot less playing time than they probably would elsewhere.

 


Why the O's can't parlay that excess into fulfilling other needs is just mind boggling to me.


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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 02:10 PM

I dont have a clue what he wrote but I told him to cool it on Ravens playoff gameday

#12 BaltBird 24

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 02:20 PM

I'm sure the majority of bench guys would rather be starting. Urias, Mateo, Sanchez, whoever ends up on the bench will probably prefer starting. This isn't a unique Baltimore situation.

#13 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 02:58 PM

Seems clear that they think there is too much volatility in amateur pitching to be worth committing a big percentage of their draft or international resources.  They have acquired a lot of minor league pitching in various trades over the years, so at some point they think the pitchers become reliably projectable, but that point is not at the amateur level.

 

Very fair to question and criticize that approach.  I don't know what other teams are doing, but I would guess the Orioles approach is pretty unique.

 

My point wasn't so much about draft strategy, I'm actually ok with their approach to the draft....but if you're going for the non-pitch mix types that are available in later rounds, then develop those different approaches (pitch repertoire).  Heavy K/fastball guys,  heavy GB/sinker guys,  off speed, weak contact guys from both the left and right sides so you can actually leverage your analytics to generate better BP outcomes.  We're in year 7 and we haven't seen it internally yet. 



#14 russsnyder

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 03:01 PM

Urias did a pretty nice job at third when Westburg was injured. He struggled early in the season offensively, however, He finished the season with 11 Hrs and the second highest OPS of his career. (.745)

The biggest shortcomings that Urias has are his lack of speed, (the guy is slower than dogshit) and his lack of versatility. He really is a backup third baseman at this point in his career. If healthy, I'm probably keeping Mateo over Urias if it comes down to it. The guy is much more versatile, can play short and center, and can flat out fly.

I would only trade Mountcastle in a deal for a starting pitcher, or if he gets beaten out in ST by Mayo. Like Cowser last year, Mayo needs to push his way onto the roster in ST. I could care less what He's done at Triple A, He needs to show that he can hit MLB pitching. I hope he worked on that during the off-season. The guy was clearly overmatched at the big league level.

As far trade pieces, Mountcastle and Mayo are the only corner guys (aside from Westburg who I wouldn't move) who have any real trade value. Urias and Rivera would likely be dealt for cash considerations or DFAed. Further, if anyone bitches about their lack of playing time they can go away like Austin Hays did last year.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#15 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 03:19 PM

I'm sure the majority of bench guys would rather be starting. Urias, Mateo, Sanchez, whoever ends up on the bench will probably prefer starting. This isn't a unique Baltimore situation.

 

Actually, it's musical chairs and every player (/agent) has a perspective or perception of their opportunity, both the floor and the ceiling.  

 

You see guys in MLBTR signing MiL deals every day because they're looking around and want to make sure they stay in Baseball.

 

Many of these guys have what I'd describe as a "1 WAR" mentality about what they should get paid.  Teams do it because the benefits outweigh the costs, but there's 2 other guys that wanted what Jesse Winker just got from the Mets.

 

Guys like Mullins, Mountcastle and Urias want to play every day, because their opportunity and paychecks require them to produce results.  Mullins wants to be valued as a full-time player and leadoff hitter.  That's how he gets paid.  When you say "whatever, I'm going to use you as a most time player and bat 7th", Ced will be professional because that's who he is, but he's looking forward to getting out of here.  You want to tell him he has to earn his stripes, ok, but he's thinking he already has and you're telling him to F off.



#16 BaltBird 24

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 03:24 PM

If Ced wants to leadoff or bat near the top of the order, he should try to get on base more than 30% of the time.

If he's producing like he did in 2021, which probably won't happen again, he's near the top of the lineup. If he's where he's at from 22-24, he's probably closer to the bottom. He'll still be getting the majority of the playing time in CF, especially against RHP.

Not sure that's Baltimore telling him to F off.
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#17 dude

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 03:24 PM

Further, if anyone bitches about their lack of playing time they can go away like Austin Hays did last year.

 

Right.  I need you guys to go out there and really sell out for the Team, I need you focused and committed to whatever I give you.  Don't look around.  Don't listen to your family or your agent, just really do great whenever I decide you get a little bit of opportunity.  Your next AB is going to determine your playing time.  No pressure.  Go get 'em.



#18 russsnyder

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 04:34 PM

Right. I need you guys to go out there and really sell out for the Team, I need you focused and committed to whatever I give you. Don't look around. Don't listen to your family or your agent, just really do great whenever I decide you get a little bit of opportunity. Your next AB is going to determine your playing time. No pressure. Go get 'em.

They are professionals.

No one is buried on this roster.

There is pressure everywhere in life, including pro sports.

I get where players want to play, but if someone is unhappy with their role, they can go.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#19 russsnyder

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 04:36 PM

Actually, it's musical chairs and every player (/agent) has a perspective or perception of their opportunity, both the floor and the ceiling.

You see guys in MLBTR signing MiL deals every day because they're looking around and want to make sure they stay in Baseball.

Many of these guys have what I'd describe as a "1 WAR" mentality about what they should get paid. Teams do it because the benefits outweigh the costs, but there's 2 other guys that wanted what Jesse Winker just got from the Mets.

Guys like Mullins, Mountcastle and Urias want to play every day, because their opportunity and paychecks require them to produce results. Mullins wants to be valued as a full-time player and leadoff hitter. That's how he gets paid. When you say "whatever, I'm going to use you as a most time player and bat 7th", Ced will be professional because that's who he is, but he's looking forward to getting out of here. You want to tell him he has to earn his stripes, ok, but he's thinking he already has and you're telling him to F off.


You're reaching.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#20 russsnyder

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 04:38 PM

If Ced wants to leadoff or bat near the top of the order, he should try to get on base more than 30% of the time.

If he's producing like he did in 2021, which probably won't happen again, he's near the top of the lineup. If he's where he's at from 22-24, he's probably closer to the bottom. He'll still be getting the majority of the playing time in CF, especially against RHP.

Not sure that's Baltimore telling him to F off.

I'm SURE no one is telling him to F off.

Dude acts like Mullins is being treated like Tom Shopay.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams




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