39 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Yeah, Im convinced they arent shopping at the top of FA but are shopping in the next tier down. I think if we give out a 200+ mil contract it will be an extension.

I agree. The problem with any extension is that they don't improve the team. Down the road potentially but nothing for the next several years.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd rather trade Basallo vs Mayo, Kjerstad, or Cowser.

[BobPhelan]

Would prob give you a better chance if you actually drafted an arm before the 5th round

14 of the top 32 prospects and 9 of the top 17 according to BA are pitchers. And they don’t include Edgar Portes and a bunch of other guys with big potential.

5 - Chayce McDermott
8 - Michael Forret
11 - Nestor German
12 - Trey Gibson
13 - Cameron Weston
14 - Keeler Morfe
15 - Luis De Leon
16 - Pat Reilly
17 - Trace Bright
20 - Brandon Young
24 - Juan Nunez
27 - Alex Pham
31 - Chase Allsup
32 - Zach Fruit

[TwentyThirtyFive]

14 of the top 32 prospects and 9 of the top 17 according to BA are pitchers. And they don’t include Edgar Portes and a bunch of other guys with big potential.

5 - Chayce McDermott
8 - Michael Forret
11 - Nestor German
12 - Trey Gibson
13 - Cameron Weston
14 - Keeler Morfe
15 - Luis De Leon
16 - Pat Reilly
17 - Trace Bright
20 - Brandon Young
24 - Juan Nunez
27 - Alex Pham
31 - Chase Allsup
32 - Zach Fruit

Meh. I respect all that but talk to me when they perform at AAA. Overwhelming majority of these guys are at lower levels.

Also,Im gonna be really interested to see where Baltimore's system ranks overall. I suspect still pretty high but I wonder how much of that is carried heavily by having 2 guys in the top 20 or so. Wherever Mayo and Basallo end up.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'd rather trade Basallo vs Mayo, Kjerstad, or Cowser.

Its an interesting debate. But if Basallo can hang in at C enough to be serviceable defensively it makes a big difference. I just dont know where his D is right now. If hes a C hes easily the most valuable.

Right now, in order of who Id trade first vs last I go

Kjerstad
Mayo
Cowser
Basallo

The last three are pretty close. Kjerstad clearly the least valuable for me.

[BaltBird 24]

Meh. I respect all that but talk to me when they perform at AAA. Overwhelming majority of these guys are at lower levels.

Also,Im gonna be really interested to see where Baltimore's system ranks overall. I suspect still pretty high but I wonder how much of that is carried heavily by having 2 guys in the top 20 or so. Wherever Mayo and Basallo end up.

I feel like AA is the real proving ground. You go from Aberdeen to Bowie and still perform and we might have something. Obviously Povich, McDermott, Young have cleared that hurdle. Weston, Reilly, Bright, Pham have all flashed at AA. Forret, German, Gibson, De Leon, Fruit should be there at some point in 2025.

Plenty of young arms to be excited about in the upper minors as early as this coming season.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Not for me. Im not saying not to have any excitement about prospects below AAA but for me AAA is the biggest proving ground. Well ,besides the final step to MLB of course. AAA is where they use the MLB ball. Automated zone. Obviously a higher quality players.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The problem I have with even AA for pitchers is that a pretty decent pitcher can have good enough stuff to just get most AA guys out. But at AAA its an entirely different thing. They need both stuff and know how to pitch to get AAA hitters out. 

[Mackus]

The problem I have with even AA for pitchers is that a pretty decent pitcher can have good enough stuff to just get most AA guys out. But at AAA its an entirely different thing. They need both stuff and know how to pitch to get AAA hitters out. 

 

I agree with this.  But do you agree with this?   Aren't you usually beating the drum that players don't need nearly as much minor league time and are ready to come up much sooner?

[CantonJester]

Mayo for Crochet feels like an overpay. Nothing about Crochet's body of work to this point suggests durability. Also, I know it might be a surprise to some, but Cowser would be a lot harder to replace (even with the wall coming in 9-20 feet) than Kjerstad. 

 

I get that the White Sox are a dumpster fire and moving Crochet could net them some MLB-ready players that would start in Chicago next season, but he's probably too valuable (to them) to move. If he has another great season next year, then just roll the dice and extend him (apparently they like the leadership role he's taken on with some of the younger pitchers in the org). I dunno. If the O's are in win-now mode (and they should be after a successful offseason), I don't see Crochet as a win-now anchor to the rotation. I. mean, with the O's luck, would he even make it out of May without elbow or shoulder discomfort? 

[Mackus]

I'd put the odds of Crochet moving at 99% with the 1% being the chances of an off-season injury that derails the move. I'd be floored if he's in Chicago to start the year.

[dude]

I get that the White Sox are a dumpster fire and moving Crochet could net them some MLB-ready players that would start in Chicago next season, but he's probably too valuable (to them) to move. If he has another great season next year, then just roll the dice and extend him (apparently they like the leadership role he's taken on with some of the younger pitchers in the org). I dunno. If the O's are in win-now mode (and they should be after a successful offseason), I don't see Crochet as a win-now anchor to the rotation. I. mean, with the O's luck, would he even make it out of May without elbow or shoulder discomfort? 

 

What every team in their position should do and what the punditry tries to convince them they should do pushes them into the ignorance of rebuilding.  They are a dumpster fire, but they've brought it on themselves.  It's not rebuilding or not rebuilding (they already "rebuilt") it's doing everything they need to do to win.  They've been terrible at everything for a while and you see smoke on the challenges of their ML roster (the non-Talent issues).  ...but...

 

I'd put the odds of Crochet moving at 99% with the 1% being the chances of an off-season injury that derails the move. I'd be floored if he's in Chicago to start the year.

 

...I agree.  They'll sell because it's the non-accountable thing to do.  They can hide behind it for the next couple years and defer any accountability for being better (owner, FO).

 

...in the meantime, great, I don't care about them.  If they want to do stupid crap, take advantage of the opportunity. 

[BobPhelan]

How are you not a Rockies fan?

[dude]

Everyone wants to see the Orioles spend some money.  I don't care (nothing to do with anything, only the roster) but if you want to spend some money on Crochet, take Benintendi.  You still are going to have to meet some level of prospect value, but IF teams aren't giving up their top 20 type guys, find other ways to create value.

 

The other team that keeps showing up for Crochet is Boston.  They can put together something similar to the Orioles which is likely more than most teams will allocate.

 

Benintendi is owed 47.5M over the next 3 years.  You aren't eating all of it.  Leaving out any other salary you could use as offset, say you took AB at 3/30 and CWS eat 17.5M.

 

Kjerstad, Tavara, Wagner (one blue chip + plus some 2nd tier guys), maybe Rogers for Crochet, Benintendi (+17.5M)

 

Mayo gives them a higher end guy, but if you can't get the bigger chip from either the Orioles or RedSox, you have to find a way to add real value at the next level.  They get a little more if they stay off the top guys.

 

...and if you want to keep Kjerstad, this is the exact type deal I suggested using DC as a third team. 

[dude]

How are you not a Rockies fan?

 

I think it's funny that you're trying to throw shade and you don't seem to have any idea what I'm talking about.

 

What you perceive as a bad approach to the ML roster isn't my approach.  You have to do EVERYTHING well in the competitive space.  The Rockies have struggled in every aspect of building their Organization.  It's not "trying to win" that's the problem for them, it's the approach to doing it (ML roster) and everything else they need to do.  Every team has some reasonable band of opportunity every year.  30 good plans has the same failure rate to the Playoffs.

 

What's especially funny is you want to defend rebuilding when it isn't even 'rebuilding' that has generated the current results for the Orioles. The Orioles have done a number of things right, but it's not rebuilding (Kjerstad, Cowser, Hoilliday) that enabled them to win 101 games in 2023 or 91 games last year. 

 

How can you not be smart enough to get that.

[BobPhelan]

Because I’m dumb. And you’re a genius.

[mdrunning]

If Chicago's timetable (if they even have one) projects them to be competitive several years down the road, then I doubt they'd want prospects who are deemed major-league ready. Why waste several years of service time on a player if the team doesn't figure to be in contention? If the White Sox are looking for prospects at the lower levels of the minors for Crochet, find out who might appeal to them.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Because I’m dumb. And you’re a genius.

It really is best to just lean into it. Nicely done. 

[weird-O]

Yesterday I read something that included quotes from Ken Rosenthal. I don't remember the article I read, so I can't provide a link. But it doesn't matter, because I don't think his comments had any merit. He said the O's need for pitching is too great for them to go all in on 1 impact arm. As such, the O's are shopping for multiple guys in the $10M/year range.

Someone needs to let Ken know that the Angelos family is no longer affiliated with Baltimore baseball, and he can let go of his long standing grudge. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I agree with this.  But do you agree with this?   Aren't you usually beating the drum that players don't need nearly as much minor league time and are ready to come up much sooner?

I don't see the issue here. I absolutely think baseball in general takes way too long to move their players up the food chain. 

 

I also believe pitchers don't excite me till the get to AAA. Even less so that hitters. 

 

Go look at the age of the Baysox pitching staff.

 

https://www.milb.com/chesapeake/roster

 

WAY over half of these guys are 25 years old or older and haven't even made it to AAA yet.  WTH. If you can't even make it to AAA by the time you are 25 then find a new career. That means 3 years of pro ball for a college player and 7 for a HS player. Good grief. Yeah baseball is hard.....lol