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MASN: Three pending decisions for Orioles impacting roster and payroll


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 09:35 AM

MASN: Three pending decisions for Orioles impacting roster and payroll

https://www.masnspor...ter-and-payroll

 

MASN: Three more pending decisions for Orioles impacting roster and payroll

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#2 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 11:49 AM

Let's do the last one first....

 

What to do with Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.

 

I'd like to turn this over to the third grade glass.

 

Kids.  If you say yes, I give you candy.  If you say no, I do not give you candy.

 

Yes or no?

 

Why would this be considered a decision?

 

Yes.  The Orioles will offer both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander QOs and they will reject them and the Orioles will get 2 early draft picks.



#3 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 12:02 PM

Get this one out of the way....

What to do with John Means.

John Means is a FA. What was interesting in that entry is that the Orioles are responsible for his medical care when he declares FA? Really? Forever? That seems a little strange, but ok.

Means isn't a meaningful pitcher in 2025. If he can make it back, awesome. I like the guy and I like the attitude of "fail on the field" before hanging up the cleats. For me, this isn't a Brandon Woodruff situation. Means has been a good Oriole with a great story. He has a moment.

....but he's not part of any plan in 2025. Note to every Oriole, sign your first contract.

You don't need anything in 2026. There's no reason to create $$ risk and there's no reason for him to sell wildly low.

Sign the guy to a split contract, with some minor league guarantee (respect) and like 1.5M on the ML side.

Let him rehab and he can try and get back on the field and if he does and pitches a meaningful inning in September, awesome.

He's not part of any plan moving forward. He'll need to re-earn that.



#4 ivanbalt

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 12:18 PM

You can let the free agents walk and receive nothing, or you can make the QO and receive a compensatory draft pick if they decline it and sign with another team. Burnes will break the bank, stomp on it with both feet and back his car over it. He’s gonna put other free-agent pitchers to shame. He ain’t accepting a one-year deal for $21.2 million. Take the pick.

 

Great to see that the team's mouthpiece isn't even entertaining a run at Burnes.  More free hats to toss out at games.



#5 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 12:39 PM

Get this one out of the way....

What to do with John Means.

John Means is a FA. What was interesting in that entry is that the Orioles are responsible for his medical care when he declares FA? Really? Forever? That seems a little strange, but ok.

Means isn't a meaningful pitcher in 2025. If he can make it back, awesome. I like the guy and I like the attitude of "fail on the field" before hanging up the cleats. For me, this isn't a Brandon Woodruff situation. Means has been a good Oriole with a great story. He has a moment.

....but he's not part of any plan in 2025. Note to every Oriole, sign your first contract.

You don't need anything in 2026. There's no reason to create $$ risk and there's no reason for him to sell wildly low.

Sign the guy to a split contract, with some minor league guarantee (respect) and like 1.5M on the ML side.

Let him rehab and he can try and get back on the field and if he does and pitches a meaningful inning in September, awesome.

He's not part of any plan moving forward. He'll need to re-earn that.

 

The 40-man roster spot, even in the offseason, has been the biggest reason I've had for not being all that interested in signing Means with an option for 2026.  I am not sure if you can sign a guy to a minor league contract that has a major league option for the following year.  I don't think I've ever seen that.  Just one example, but Brandon Woodruff was on the Brewers 40-man all year.

 

If you can do that, great, I'm definitely interested.  I'd pay him $1M or whatever for this year and then have an option for maybe $10M in 2026.  If he has to be on the 40-man all offseason, then that's a potential drawback.  I have not looked too closely at our 40-man status and which prospects need to be added this offseason, but I wouldn't want to lose anyone intriguing in the Rule 5 who we could otherwise protect.  If Means would wait until January or February to sign such a deal, then it makes more sense as you only have to get to ST and then can move him to the 60-day.  



#6 makoman

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 01:10 PM

The 40-man roster spot, even in the offseason, has been the biggest reason I've had for not being all that interested in signing Means with an option for 2026.  I am not sure if you can sign a guy to a minor league contract that has a major league option for the following year.  I don't think I've ever seen that.  Just one example, but Brandon Woodruff was on the Brewers 40-man all year.

 

If you can do that, great, I'm definitely interested.  I'd pay him $1M or whatever for this year and then have an option for maybe $10M in 2026.  If he has to be on the 40-man all offseason, then that's a potential drawback.  I have not looked too closely at our 40-man status and which prospects need to be added this offseason, but I wouldn't want to lose anyone intriguing in the Rule 5 who we could otherwise protect.  If Means would wait until January or February to sign such a deal, then it makes more sense as you only have to get to ST and then can move him to the 60-day.  

It should be Mayo and Baumler from 2020 and all the college guys from 2021 (plus Povich, McDermott, and Juan Nunez from trades?)

 

https://www.baseball...ype=franch_year

 

Several are already here of course. Of the others I would defer to Bob, but Nunez and Baumler are too green (both maxed at A+) and the 2021 college guys aren't that exciting. Pham? Armbruester?



#7 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 01:31 PM

The 40-man roster spot, even in the offseason, has been the biggest reason I've had for not being all that interested in signing Means with an option for 2026. 

 

I'm not even thinking about 2026 for him.  We should have a solid plan for 2026 that doesn't include Means.  I'd let him rehab and get back on the field late (in any role) just as a means (pun intended) to keep going.

 

Don't need a 40-man for a split contract (2025).  Woodruff had guaranteed money in 2024 so that's that, but don't see any reason to do that for Means. (we can give him more on a MiL split, right?)



#8 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 01:50 PM

There's really not much to do with the bullpen.  You probably have to lose a guy.

 

What to do with Seranthony Domínguez.

What to do with Cionel Pérez.

 

Orioles are picking up both options then have to decide what to do with Perez.

 

The bullpen is full

 

CL Bautista

RH Dominguez

RH Cano

RH Webb

LH Soto

LH Coulombe

LH Akin

LH Perez

 

That's 8.  The Orioles need a guy they can trust with Bautista because he's probably not going back-to-back this season as he works all the way back.  You have a decent group (Dominguez/Cano/Coulombe/Soto) to complete the back end and pair with him.

 

The question is Suarez.  If we add a starter (everyone wants to) then Suarez, pending some nebulousness on his contract status, goes to the bullpen and the only guys with options are Cano and Akin.....so someone without options would need to get traded and that's probably Perez.

 

Harder to throw away Soto given what you paid for him.  Coulombe has been awesome.  Akin was great and give you longer outings with Suarez.  Dominguez for optics at a minimum and Cano and Webb have both been good.

 

It's a numbers game and Perez seems to be the (Suarez is still an Orioles and they add a starter) odd man out.

 

Bowman was OK for the Orioles and is a cheap ARB case, but he's out of options too, so if you offer him, he's like a backup plan you waive in ST and lose 1M.



#9 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 01:55 PM

I'm not even thinking about 2026 for him.  We should have a solid plan for 2026 that doesn't include Means.  I'd let him rehab and get back on the field late (in any role) just as a means (pun intended) to keep going.

 

Don't need a 40-man for a split contract (2025).  Woodruff had guaranteed money in 2024 so that's that, but don't see any reason to do that for Means. (we can give him more on a MiL split, right?)

 

No interest in Means without a pre-determined way to control him in 2026.  Don't think that makes sense.  Even with an option for 2026 it's questionable.



#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 02:06 PM

The question is Suarez.  If we add a starter (everyone wants to) then Suarez, pending some nebulousness on his contract status, goes to the bullpen and the only guys with options are Cano and Akin.....so someone without options would need to get traded and that's probably Perez.


Suarez profiles as a better reliever than Povich, but when the O's add a starter... I'd rather have Saurez in the rotation. 

 

Or at the minimum, that's a discussion. 


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#11 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:15 PM

Most of the questions in these entries are obvious.  Not sure why we even ask them...maybe we want fans to feel like they can get the answers right.  Don't know.  Maybe we're ramping up to the more important questions.

 

There's 5 things the Orioles have to do this offseason and (for Wile E.) they aren't in any order.  It's a list of 5.

 

1. CF

2. 1B

3. SP

4. Bench

5. Extensions

 

1 and 2 are important to 4 and the answer to the remaining of these 6 "pending decisions".

 

The core of this team has been Hays/Mullins/Santander/Mountcastle(+Ohearn/McCann) for a a couple years, prior to this season.  You can lean into the humans you know or you can move on to the next group of humans.  Trying to hold on and move is an unnecessary complex task and I'd argue the foundation of the challenges that we all think exist on the roster.

 

I'm part of the group that would (despite the fact that I like him) move from Mounty to Mayo and I'm not leaving Mullins as the only cat from 2023 that has a future outside of the Orioles hanging around batting 7th sometimes, so change there.

 

The core lineup is going to be incredibly young (Adley, Gunnar, Westy, Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo).  Let's go ahead and pick up OHearn as a bridge to Basallo and we'll discuss CF elsewhere.

 

Urias needs a more full-time gig (still) and he needs to be traded.  

 

The PLAYERS that help guide the Leadership of this team are going to be bench players.  For however much I like many of the things on the roster, you have to usher in the opportunity for the next core to mature.

 

What to do with Jorge Mateo.

What to do with James McCann.

 

I would start with these 2 guys.

 

McCann is a little easier because I think the fit is clean.  He'll be 35 next season.  He knows what's up and I want it to be "McCann's clubhouse" as the next group of guys like Westburg and whoever, emerge.  You commit through contract.

 

What do I want on the bench?  Speed, defense, versatility.  I keep looking at the Sprint Speed Leaderboards on Statcast and while I find myself making arguments for a number of guys, the guy that is the best fit here is Mateo.  Former top prospect, emerged with the Orioles, plays SS and now 2B. Can fill in in the OF. BUt he's not the starter.  He could (in his head, like Urias should) be thinking he needs a starting gig.  If he wants to be a starter, and there's a number of teams that can use him, then I move him like Urias.  But he's a great fit for the Orioles, if he wants to be.  

 

For both guys, I don't want to play 1 year games.  1 year is a lack of commitment. No questions, here's your lock in and we commit together.

 

McCann 3/14.  3M s/b (paid out 2028-2030), 6M in 2025 and 2.5M in 2026 and 2027. 

Mateo 3/14.  1M s/b, 3.5M 2025-2027 and 2.5M b/o on team options 

 

McCann gets a similar role for 2025 as 2024. In '26-'27, he's the third C with Adley Basallo. Less PT, same clubhouse role....and he'll probably have a job in the Warehouse when he retires.

 

Mateo provides the hyper-versatile and speed role off the bench.  Always ready.  Everyday when injuries crop up (maybe some PA bonuses in there).  I want him to buy into that role.  He's probably giving something up (money and PT) to do this and that's the buy in.

 

Some mocked it before, but that's the press conference.  "I'm here to win Championships.".  I understand what I'm doing and the role I am buying into.  This team has some opportunity and I'm here to do whatever it takes to get use to the next level.

 

fwiw, I'd add Slater to this press conference.  I think he proved his worth this year and after getting kicked around a bit between a couple teams last year, getting a ML role on a good team should be a good opportunity for him.  Platoon versus LHers, but alternate with CC and HK so they are getting some left-left PAs.  Occasional day in CF.  I'll probably go Fabian in 2026 for this role, but lock Slater in for 3M in 2025 and that's 3 of your bench spots.



#12 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:24 PM

They're not doing anything with CF.  


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#13 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:29 PM

Mateo and a backup C will 100% be on the roster next year.  Tender Mateo and offer McCann an MLB contract for 1 year.  I don't think we need to lock in 3-years of either to achieve that goal.

 

If the argument is they improve the 2025 team more if on multi-year deals than 1-year, I think that's unsupportable, at best.



#14 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:46 PM

They're not doing anything with CF.  

 

I think they explore trading Cedric and either bringing in a different LF/CF (possibly sliding Cowser to CF).  They were rumored to have explored that idea in July.  Cedric was perhaps the best player on the team other than Gunnar since they decided not to deal him, so the idea isn't as appealing, but I do think they consider it again.  Cedric more desirable for us now, but also would be more desirable to a potential trade partner.

 

Every position player spot on the roster has a solid answer for 2025 right now except for backup C which is the least important.  If they are going to make any sort of external addition, it'll have to come because they trade away one of those solid answers to open up a spot for the external guy.  I'm not necessarily expecting any external addition, but I think its possible.  The only spot that I'm certain who will be the Opening Day starter is SS.  

 

If it's 50/50 that they bring in one new everyday player, then I think Cedric is one of the more likely candidates for them moving on from the guy who was here recently. 



#15 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:50 PM

McCann - fine giving him one more year

Means - back to back arm sugery....no thanks

Mateo - please move on. Just keep Urias.

Burnes - 3/$100m or so

Santander - 4/$100m or so

Bullpen - gotta be better than this

#16 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 03:57 PM



Mateo - please move on. Just keep Urias.

Burnes - 3/$100m or so
 

 

 

Why Urias over Mateo?  Agree we only need one.  Not sure who I'd pick but interested in hearing the argument for one over the other.

 

3/$100M for Burnes is saying "I don't want to sign Burnes".  He's gonna get about that much annually for 6 or 7 years.  If you want him but only for a shorter term, you probably can't, but to make it even remotely plausible you gotta step up the AAV probably by like 30-40%.  3/$125M maybe gets his attention depending on what other teams offer him, I expect it'll take more like maybe 4/$160M for him to turn down 6/$180-200M.  And if he's getting offered 7-8 years at $30M+ then it won't.



#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 05:09 PM

I think they explore trading Cedric and either bringing in a different LF/CF (possibly sliding Cowser to CF). They were rumored to have explored that idea in July. Cedric was perhaps the best player on the team other than Gunnar since they decided not to deal him, so the idea isn't as appealing, but I do think they consider it again. Cedric more desirable for us now, but also would be more desirable to a potential trade partner.

Every position player spot on the roster has a solid answer for 2025 right now except for backup C which is the least important. If they are going to make any sort of external addition, it'll have to come because they trade away one of those solid answers to open up a spot for the external guy. I'm not necessarily expecting any external addition, but I think its possible. The only spot that I'm certain who will be the Opening Day starter is SS.

If it's 50/50 that they bring in one new everyday player, then I think Cedric is one of the more likely candidates for them moving on from the guy who was here recently.


Maybe.

I think Cowser was a in case of emergency break glass situation.

Cedric rebounded, so I think they go with him on his last year of team control.

#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 05:11 PM

Also, I think they envision Bradfield taking over CF in 2026... I don't love the profile myself, but it could work. Or maybe Honeycutt replaces him in 27.

#19 dude

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 05:25 PM

They're not doing anything with CF.  

 

Maybe they won't, but they absolutely should. 

 

I'm a huge fan of Mullins and have advocated for an extension, but they've certainly told us what the future of these guys (Hays/Mullins/Santander) is. 

 

Big fan of the Honeycutt pick and optimistic we'll see something special over the next couple years.

 

....but Mullins to Bradfield to Honeycutt is (imo) the least productive transition we could do.  

Not confident Mullins is cool with everything.

Don't want to develop prospects to get to prospects (Bradfield to Honeycutt)

 

Brenton Doyle is my answer to the question.  RHed bat in CF, excellent speed defense with some pop. Super2 and controlled for 4 more season which isn't a great alignment for the Rox (Bradfield would be much, much better) and we can have Doyle now and plenty of runway (4+ years) to figure out Honeycutt.



#20 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 11 October 2024 - 05:34 PM

Why Urias over Mateo?  Agree we only need one.  Not sure who I'd pick but interested in hearing the argument for one over the other.

 

3/$100M for Burnes is saying "I don't want to sign Burnes".  He's gonna get about that much annually for 6 or 7 years.  If you want him but only for a shorter term, you probably can't, but to make it even remotely plausible you gotta step up the AAV probably by like 30-40%.  3/$125M maybe gets his attention depending on what other teams offer him, I expect it'll take more like maybe 4/$160M for him to turn down 6/$180-200M.  And if he's getting offered 7-8 years at $30M+ then it won't.

I think Urias is a better hitter and more versatile defensively. Wouldn't give me heartburn if they went the other way, just how I see it.

 

I agree on what you are saying on Burnes. I am all for having a TOR guy. Been on that train for years. But no way I am giving him something with an AAV of $40M. Not doing it. I would way rather trade some chips for somebody and use that kind of money to fix the offense.....no I don't think the O's offense is fine. 






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