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Looking at some situational hitting splits


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#1 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 12:31 PM

So it's hardly a secret there was plenty of fanbase concerns over the Orioles' situational hitting, but I figure it'd be worth seeing if they were actually below-average at it or the greater emphasis on homers in exchange for strikeouts means they weren't doing any differently from the rest of the sport. So let's look at some splits and see how they compare (this could be an article but I don't want to try to stretch this into 800 words of analysis lol)

 

RISP

 

Orioles: .251 avg (17th place)

League leader: .285 avg, D-Backs

League average: .252 avg

 

RISP, 2 outs

 

Orioles: .232 (15th place)

League leader: .267, Dodgers

League average: .233

 

I will note that the Tigers are 27th and the Padres are 25th so that's two playoff teams who struggled to come up with some really clutch hits

 

Late & Close
 
(Plate appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck according to BRef)
 
Orioles: .254 (5th place)
League leader: .276, Padres
League average: .230
 
High leverage
 
Orioles: .238 (22nd place)
League leader: .293, Padres
League average: .245
 
The Nats are 5th in average and 10th for OPS here so another interesting outlier for timely hitting vs overall record
 
So yeah definitely not the greatest situational hitting in the world, kinda fascinated by how they're 5th for late and close but 22nd for high leverage

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#2 JoyinMudville

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 12:47 PM

So it's hardly a secret there was plenty of fanbase concerns over the Orioles' situational hitting, but I figure it'd be worth seeing if they were actually below-average at it or the greater emphasis on homers in exchange for strikeouts means they weren't doing any differently from the rest of the sport. So let's look at some splits and see how they compare (this could be an article but I don't want to try to stretch this into 800 words of analysis lol)

 

RISP

 

Orioles: .251 avg (17th place)

League leader: .285 avg, D-Backs

League average: .252 avg

 

RISP, 2 outs

 

Orioles: .232 (15th place)

League leader: .267, Dodgers

League average: .233

 

I will note that the Tigers are 27th and the Padres are 25th so that's two playoff teams who struggled to come up with some really clutch hits

 

Late & Close
 
(Plate appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck according to BRef)
 
Orioles: .254 (5th place)
League leader: .276, Padres
League average: .230
 
High leverage
 
Orioles: .238 (22nd place)
League leader: .293, Padres
League average: .245
 
The Nats are 5th in average and 10th for OPS here so another interesting outlier for timely hitting vs overall record
 
So yeah definitely not the greatest situational hitting in the world, kinda fascinated by how they're 5th for late and close but 22nd for high leverage

I'm curious how this compares to last year



#3 ivanbalt

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 01:22 PM

I'm curious about just the second half.


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#4 Mackus

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 01:40 PM

Nice compilation of info.

 

Just my opinion, but I would think that the best baseline of comparison for each split would be the Orioles own overall numbers rather than the league as a whole.  If they're the best hitting team in the league but only average with RISP, that might indicate an issue.  The team hit 250 as a whole this season.  So having nearly exactly the same average with RISP seems logical.  Don't think the "close and late" number is interesting either as that's very close.  Do think the "RISP w/ 2 out" and "high leverage" numbers are down enough to be eye raising.

 

Generally I'm skeptical of any of these splits indicating an actual process issue.  Even a whole season's worth of stats for a whole team might not be a big enough sample to see any signal in what is perhaps the nosiest of splits.  I am pretty doubtful that there is an issue with the team's approach with RISP w/ 2 outs, but rather it was just coincidence that they did much worse in those situations this year.  IIRC, they did much better than overall in those situations last year.  Sometimes you're up, sometimes you're down, don't really think its something you can be highly proficient in consistently as a team.



#5 mikezpen

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 02:06 PM

I'm curious about just the second half.

 

That's the key right there. Compare the two halves



#6 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 02:22 PM

I'm curious about just the second half.

 

I think Fangraphs has that, I'll check later today 


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#7 Mackus

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 02:35 PM


That's the key right there. Compare the two halves


Is it? What would it tell you if they were good w RISP they June and bad after?

#8 mikezpen

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 02:51 PM

Why did they collapse at bat in the second half?



#9 Mackus

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Posted 09 October 2024 - 03:17 PM

Why did they collapse at bat in the second half?

 

Knowing what the BA w/ RISP was in the second half won't tell you that, IMO.  Or put another way, I know what the stats and splits were, but it doesn't give me any insight into why it happened.  

 

They hit 245 overall in the second half (after July 1) including 238 w/ RISP, 209 w/ RISP & 2 outs, and 228 in High Leverage (however FG defines that).  



#10 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 10 October 2024 - 07:23 AM

One question I have that I don't think has been discussed at all in regards to our hitting. General thoughts have been along the lines of they hit well last year and the first 3 months this year so it's just a team wide slump and not any kind of process issue.

Well what about this? Perhaps other teams have figured out the Os hitting approach and have adjusted the way the pitch to us? I am not buying that an entire team goes from lights out to lousy as some issues or team wide slump. I think the league has adjusted and it's hurting us.

#11 Mackus

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Posted 10 October 2024 - 07:35 AM

They didn't go from lights out to lousy.  They went from lights out to average.  Even with the three awful weeks in September, they were still 13th in MLB in R/G after July 1.

 

Don't buy that the league has figured out how to pitch to all Oriole hitters collectively.  Too many hitters with different strengths and weaknesses.  Also some guys were better in the second half than the first, so why didn't they figure out how to pitch to those guys?

 

It doesn't have to have a single definitive cause.  It's a complex mechanism and no one simple, obvious thing is going to be a smoking gun.


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