89 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't understand why you think managing the Organization intelligently is some wild offense.

 

Its not intelligent if it costs us a game or two in the next three weeks before he comes up and we end up missing out on the division by a game.  Baseball of course doesn't really work like that where one guy wins or loses a game, but we're in a very tight race and any one game might end up being huge and every edge you can get helps.  And I'd rather win the division and use up Mayo's eligibility than get the Wild Card and have the draft pick possibility next year.  There is no way to tell if Mayo up tomorrow versus Mayo up in 3 weeks is the difference between those two things, but its not impossible that it could be. 

 

All of this is moot if he can't play defense.  If that's the decision, that he isn't good enough to play there, then he isn't an option to replace Westburg and that is fine.  But if he is good enough, then I have a big problem with prioritizing the draft pick possibility over optimizing the roster for the next few weeks.  It's a much lower bar to clear for him to be an upgrade over Urias than an upgrade over Mountcastle, which was who we were talking about him replacing before Westburg's injury.

[BaltBird 24]

I don't think Mayo is going to be 2 or 3 wins better than Urias over the next few weeks.

[Mackus]

I don't think Mayo is going to be 2 or 3 wins better than Urias over the next few weeks.

 

Not in a WAR perspective, no, that's cumulative and difficult to accumulate in that short of time.  But possible from a WPA standpoint.  Games are not statistical evaluations and its possible for a moderately better offensive performance over a few weeks (lets g et crazy and say 800 OPS for Mayo vs 700 OPS for Urias for the sake of argument) to come at the right time and have greater influence on a couple wins or losses than any statistical model that flattens the peaks and valleys.  

 

I think this is about defense and not service time, so not mad about the decision (but am disappointed he couldn't improve enough to instill confidence he'd be passable).  But if we knew they thought he was good enough (such as if they call him up for 3B in 3 weeks), I'll be a bit salty about not just getting it done now.  Less salty if Urias plays well.

 

They faced the same decision with Holliday and decided it was worth bringing him up instead of trying for a 2026 draft pick.  He would've had to wait another 2 weeks longer than Mayo will, but its a lot of the same factors.

[dude]

A win or 2 over a couple of weeks?  Should we do that math on that?  

 

Creating RoY has value to the perception of the Orgnaization.

RoY gives you a tangible pick.  The Orioles drafted Griff OFerral this year.

RoY (and we've done this before and I know some disagree) has value to the career of the player.

 

Mountcastle isn't stupid.  Mayo isn't stupid either.  I like Ryan a lot but you just have to make choices all of the time.  You solve it with some fairly simple communication.  If it were up to me, Mayo would already have 400+ PAs at 1B and be competing for RoY this year.  That's not what they did.  It's not unfair or anything else.  It IS unfair if you let it linger into next year.  It's a distraction for everyone and you have to mange it.

 

Nobody should be trading 50 PAs between Urias and Mayo at 3B versus what both the Team and the Player can potentially get by waiting.

 

It's comical to me that people think you shouldn't care about maximizing the opportunities of the Organization.  THAT is how you build and win for a long time.  Do everything well, not making small emotional decisions that guarantee you lock yourself out of opportunity. 

[Mackus]

A win or 2 over a couple of weeks?  Should we do that math on that?  

 

Yes, I'm clearly stating that I think Mayo is a 12 WAR player.  You're insufferable.

[BaltBird 24]

Westburg / Holliday is ideal, obviously, but there's a chance the offense is better with Holliday/Urias than it was with Westburg/Mateo.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I don't know the first thing about Soto. Underwhelming bat and mediocre glove? Maybe some speed.

He was awesome in 2022 in limited playing time, but hasn't played much in MLB since then. No idea about his defense, but he seems to get on base.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Mayo me

[dude]

Yes, I'm clearly stating that I think Mayo is a 12 WAR player.  You're insufferable.

 

 Literally what you wrote. Sure, blame me.

 

I understand part of your explanation (you typed that before I posted my post) but you still have to be both offensively and defensively better than a GG Urias, in your entry to MLB.  You know that too, and you still wrote it.  

 

Westburg's injury should create some exposure opportunity for Mayo sooner than the trade deadline activity indicated.  He was probably going to be 1 SEP when rosters expand.  Now he can be a couple weeks earlier and get some partial run at 3B.  Great.

 

The hyper flexing (literally this thread) on demand for Mayo now (not necessarily you) as if 2 weeks makes any definable difference is absurd.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yes, I'm clearly stating that I think Mayo is a 12 WAR player.  You're insufferable.

Hear Hear

 

MacGif me Pedro!!!

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Mayo could come up and suck.
Mayo could come up and be good from the get go.
Mayo could come up and struggle a bit before getting dialed in.

But none of that is possible if you don't bring him up. And the longer you wait the less likely you're going to have any inkling of what you may have in him for next year.

[CantonJester]

Mayo could come up and suck.
Mayo could come up and be good from the get go.
Mayo could come up and struggle a bit before getting dialed in.

But none of that is possible if you don't bring him up. And the longer you wait the less likely you're going to have any inkling of what you may have in him for next year.

 

This season should not defined by the ascension of Coby Mayo. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This season should not defined by the ascension of Coby Mayo. 

and you got that from my posts how????

[BSLMikeLowe]

Mayo could come up and suck.
Mayo could come up and be good from the get go.
Mayo could come up and struggle a bit before getting dialed in.

But none of that is possible if you don't bring him up. And the longer you wait the less likely you're going to have any inkling of what you may have in him for next year.

 

Hopefully they bring him up when they get the extra roster spot in Sept. Even if he's just a RH bat on the bench most nights, at least get his feet wet in the majors before next season. Though my guess is they'll use that extra spot for a Vavra-type.

[CantonJester]

and you got that from my posts how????

 

Because you laid out all the options for Mayo without providing any context of how it would improve the team. 

 

I don't know when he'll be called up, but I expect he'll be used closer to the role they envisioned than hoping against hope he'll be "OK-enough" at 3B because Westburg was lost for most of the rest of the season. 

[dude]

and you got that from my posts how????

 

...because every time anything happens where the Orioles don't score a run or whatever, you question the location of Colby Mayo.

 

I would've made room for him this year.  They didn't so they commit to a path and the Orioles have one of the best records in MLB and that's good. 

 

Mayo will get here soon enough.  They didn't do it at the trade deadline so they'll need to do it in the offseason.

[russsnyder]

I think they dont trust him at 3b defensively. They are in it to win it. They arent playing games. The Yanks are hot again. If they felt Mayo gave them the best option at 3b he would be here

This.

They are going to roll with Urias for now.

He's an MLB proven defender and he provides enough offense to contribute.

My guess is that We'll see Mayo when the rosters expand. ( Barring injury)

[Ravens2006]

Soto's minor league numbers are pedestrian. His brief stint in the majors a couple years back was well about his minor league averages. Not a "little" better, but WAY above.  His waiver transactions between the O's and a couple other teams this year alone suggest he's not all that highly regarded.

 

I was stoked for the Holliday call up, hoping he'd click more (not ROY level performance, just solid and show gradual signs of getting more comfortable) and make Urias a bench guy.  With some of the pitching injuries, I think this team is going to need more offense down the stretch to try to take the division.  Then Westburg gets his hand broken.  It's a Murphy's Law type season in many ways, and yet they're still clinging to the division lead at the moment.

 

Mayo should be in CLE tomorrow.  His minor league numbers leave very little left to prove.  

 

Again, personally I don't care and will never care about service time manipulation for some scenario 6 years away.  You play to win now while also developing for the future.  Front office job includes finding and developing more Gunnar / Jackson / Colton / Grayson / Coby / etc types and keep that pipeline producing.  If the new ownership group opens up the wallets again, which they've shown flashes of already with additions that would have NEVER EVER been allowed under Johnny's reign, then some guys will re-sign, some guys will walk, and some guys should get traded a year or two before FA to supplement replenishing the system. 

 

In no universe should burning a year of service time for a couple guys now be an excuse for what the org / system looks like 6 years down the line.  Win as much as you can now.  Win as much as you can later.  That's what Elias and company are paid to do.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I must note in a broader context, it's funny that it seems like every Orioles infield prospect has been told their promotion is waiting on improved infield defense and then the best infield defender they've had as a top-100 prospect got traded for Corbin Burnes lol

[dude]

Again, personally I don't care and will never care about service time manipulation for some scenario 6 years away.

 

Do you understand that this has nothing to do with what you're describing?  Several people have used some form of service time [whatever] and that's an issue that many want to have opinions on, but this has nothing to do with Mayo's years of service with the Orioles.