769 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

Arozarena to Seattle. Wow. Tampa has been playing well, too. Of course Arozarena has stunk this year.

[weird-O]

Seattle is probably hoping for the magic that sometimes comes with a change of scenery. And even if that doesn't materialize, I'm sure they're counting on him to return to form next year.  

[Mackus]

Arozarena to Seattle. Wow. Tampa has been playing well, too. Of course Arozarena has stunk this year.

He's been red hot since June. Really bad April and May but basically back to being himself since then.

[mikezpen]

Glad he's outa our league. Always killed the Orioles until this year, and I'm glad he won't get a chance to do it again, at least in regular season.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

MLB reporting that the Yankees are hard after Tanner Scott and the Astros are going after Fedde.

[Mackus]

MLB reporting that the Yankees are hard after Tanner Scott and the Astros are going after Fedde.

Scott is gonna cost I think. Still a rental so nothin too crazy, but might have to dangle Norby to beat other offers. I'd consider what the cost would be for some of the alternatives. I think Scott's the best option but I wouldn't pay twice for him compared to Estevez, for example.

[makoman]

Scott is gonna cost I think. Still a rental so nothin too crazy, but might have to dangle Norby to beat other offers. I'd consider what the cost would be for some of the alternatives. I think Scott's the best option but I wouldn't pay twice for him compared to Estevez, for example.

Scott has been on a huge roll lately but I like last year's version better. He's back over 5 BB/9 and 3.7 H/9 feels like such an unsustainable regression candidate. Even the Rivera/Eckersley/Britton best type of years were in the 5s, yeah Felix was 4.4 last year but Scott isn't K-ing 16 per 9. He'd certainly fit for us either way but I don't want to pay out the nose for maybe 2022 Scott. 

[BobPhelan]

Would much rather deal for Estevez than Scott considering cost. As mentioned above, Scott pitching way above his peripherals.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Would much rather deal for Estevez than Scott considering cost. As mentioned above, Scott pitching way above his peripherals.

I get that his xFIP is 3.74 vs. his 1.18 era... 

I get that his K% is 29% vs. 33% last year, and his BB% is 14.8% vs. 7.8% last year... but...

In '23, he was #1 overall among relievers in WPA. Bautista was 2nd. This year he's 5th overall among relievers. 

 

LHH have a .362 OPS (just 39 abs), and RHH have a .473 OPS (111 ab's). 

 

Overwhelming stuff, and can beat himself at times with the walks. 

[Mackus]

I get that his xFIP is 3.74 vs. his 1.18 era...

I get that his K% is 29% vs. 33% last year, and his BB% is 14.8% vs. 7.8% last year... but...

In '23, he was #1 overall among relievers in WPA. Bautista was 2nd. This year he's 5th overall among relievers.

LHH have a .362 OPS (just 39 abs), and RHH have a .473 OPS (111 ab's).

Overwhelming stuff, and can beat himself at times with the walks.

WPA is like RBI. Its basically leverage × production. If you wanna guess how someone will produce in the future, just isolate the production part of it and remove the leverage.

[BSLChrisStoner]

WPA is like RBI. Its basically leverage × production. If you wanna guess how someone will produce in the future, just isolate the production part of it and remove the leverage.

I like that definition... but if I'm guessing how a closer / high leverage guy is going to perform in high leverage situations going forward...I want to evaluate both the production and how they performed in similar situations previously.

There is a difference imo vs doing the job in the 6th vs doing it later.

https://library.fang...s.com/misc/wpa/

I do get that it requires opportunity to accrue, but you have to perform in those opportunities too.

Their definition says not predictive, which seems counterintuitive to what I've seen over several years...but I guess that gets back to opportunity.

[Mackus]

I like that definition... but if I'm guessing how a closer / high leverage guy is going to perform in high leverage situations going forward...I want to evaluate both the production and how they performed in similar situations previously.

There is a difference imo vs doing the job in the 6th vs doing it later.

https://library.fang...s.com/misc/wpa/

Sure, closing is different. But successful closers are all gonna have a pretty high WPA, so all it really tells you is who is already a closer.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The deadline move that should happen before any trades is a FO come to Jesus meeting.

[Mackus]

The deadline move that should happen before any trades is a FO come to Jesus meeting.

Front Office should almost never talk to players unless it's about a deal. That's a coaching and player leadership call, IMO.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Front Office should almost never talk to players unless it's about a deal. That's a coaching and player leadership call, IMO.

Should have been clear. FO needs to hold a come to Jesus with Hyde.

[Slidemaster]

The more baseball I see this team play, the more convinced I am they shouldn't do anything drastic.

[RichardZ]

Scott is gonna cost I think. Still a rental so nothin too crazy, but might have to dangle Norby to beat other offers. I'd consider what the cost would be for some of the alternatives. I think Scott's the best option but I wouldn't pay twice for him compared to Estevez, for example.

From their other trades I’d guess they’d be more interested in high upside lower level guys like Luis DeLeon and Thomas Sosa, to name two.

[RichardZ]

The deadline move that should happen before any trades is a FO come to Jesus meeting.

Is Jesus Alou still alive?

[Mackus]

From their other trades I’d guess they’d be more interested in high upside lower level guys like Luis DeLeon and Thomas Sosa, to name two.

I don't know enough abut our emerging DSL guys. But ok, that's fine. Gotta land one of these higher end RP. Two would be better.

[jamesdean]

Is Jesus Alou still alive?

He died last year.  Felipe is the only Alou brother still alive. (89 years old)